3-D Viscoelastic FEM Modeling of Crustal Deformation in Northeast Japan

-- As a first step toward establishing a standard earthquake cycle model in Japan, we simulate the crustal deformation during the past 100 years in northeast Japan, using a 3-D FEM based on the kinematic model. Then, we compare the computed results with the observed long-term leveling data and the recent GPS data. On the whole, although the effect of the subducting PAC is dominant, coseismic deformation of the interplate earthquakes can be clearly seen in the inland. Moreover, the postseismic deformation of the earthquakes due to the viscoelastic upper mantle seriously affects the inland movements, and continues for a few decades. Our modeling, including the effects of the interplate earthquakes and the three-dimensional viscoelastic inhomogeneity, reasonably explains the observed movement. Finally, we stress that the viscoelastic effect should be taken into consideration in the analyses, even if no earthquakes occur in the analyzed period.     

The null distribution of sample serial correlation coefficient

 The null distribution of the lag-k sample serial correlation coefficient (r _k , k=1,2,3) was investigated by Monte Carlo simulation. For a time series with normal, exponential, Pearson 3, EV1 (Gumbel), or generalized Pareto (GP) distribution type, the null distribution of its r _k can be approximated by the normal distribution with mean −1/(n−k) and variance 1/(n−1). But for a time series with the lognormal, EV2 or EV3 (Weibull) distribution type, the null distribution of r _k is skewed distributed. In such cases, a simulation technique is suggested to construct percentile confidence intervals at a given significance level.     

Model-independent Travel-time Attributes for 2-D, Finite-offset Multicoverage Reflections

— In this paper, we provide a 5-parameter stacking formula to transform 2-D prestack data into a particular common-offset section. This requires the knowledge of the near-surface velocity only and it is expected that ray theory holds to describe primary reflections. The earth model can be arbitrarily inhomogeneous. The new stacking approach can be viewed as a generalization of the 3-parameter common-reflection-surface (CRS) stack, by which 2-D multicoverage data are stacked into a simulated zero-offset section. The new 5-parameter formula can handle P-P, P-S and S-S reflections.     

Microseismicity Induced by Heavy Rainfall Around Flooded Vertical Ore Veins

—?Microseismicity (M?M?M?M??6 were also monitored at a crustal movement monitoring station located several hundred meters from the veins. It was found that the opening of the vertical ore veins primary led to significant strain and tilt, but not to seismicity, because the delay and the longer duration of the seismicity were significant. Most seismic events involve thrusting mechanisms that are consistent with the present stress state of E-W-oriented tectonic compression, but are not consistent with the opening of the deepest ore vein. Interstingly, all the events within a few months of the heavy rainfall occurred near the faults that offset the deepest ore veins, wheareas all those events located away from the deepest ore veins occurred many months after the heavy rainfall. Consequently, the delayed diffusion of water appears to have played a dominant role in reducing rock strength, which led to seismicity in the Ikuno mine.     

Analysis of Time Series of the Ufa River Water Pollution by Benz[a]pyrene

Mathematical analysis of time series is shown to be applicable to assessing the factors governing benz[a]pyrene concentration in the Ufa River water. The contributions of the deterministic and random components to the total benz[a]pyrene concentration. Seasonal increase (October–January, March–April) and decrease (February, May–September) in benz[a]pyrene concentrations in the Ufa River are established.     

Power of the Mann–Whitney test for detecting a shift in median or mean of hydro-meteorological data

 The non-parametric Mann–Whitney (MW) statistic test has been popularly used to assess the significance of a shift in median or mean of hydro-meteorological time series. It has been considered that the test is more suitable for non-normally distributed data and it may be not sensitive to the distribution type of sample data. However, no evidence has been provided to demonstrate these. This study investigates the power of the test in various circumstances by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation results demonstrate that the power of the test is very sensitive to various properties of sample data. The power depends on the pre-assigned significance level, magnitude of a shift, sample size, and its occurrence position within a time series; and it is also strongly affected by the variation, skewness, and distribution type of a time series. The bigger the magnitude of a shift, the more powerful the test is; the larger the sample size, the more powerful the test is; and the bigger the variation within a time series, the less power the test has. The test has the highest power if a shift occurs at the midpoint of a time series. For the samples with different distribution types, the power of the test is dramatically different. The test has the highest power for time series with the extreme value type III (EV3) distribution while it indicates the lowest power for time series with the lognormal distribution.     

Reduction of the Trophic Status of a Water Body with the Use of Large-Size Zooplankton

It is shown that large-size zooplankton can be used as a natural filter in flow-through plants for reducing the trophic status of water bodies and improve water transparency. Experiments in Chistye Prudy pond in the period of blue-green algae blooming show large-size zooplankton to reduce phytoplankton biomass in the pond throughout the period of phytoplankton growth. Daphnia magna specimens (with a biomass of 92 to 3450 mg/l) in lothic ecosystems are found to reduce the biomass of dominating Anabaena spirodes blue-green algae when this biomass attains its maximum.     

改进的灰色模型在中国能源消费及其CO2排放预测中的研究

中国高速的经济发展导致了快速的能源消费和地球温暖化气体的排放量。本文应用灰色理论建立了中国的终端能源消费量的动态预测模型，同时应用等维递补及带有马尔科夫链符号估计的残差修正，对原始模型进行了改进。后验检验的结果证明了改进的预测模型具有较高的计算精度。预测结果表明，两种经济发展情况（高速及低速）下，从2000年到2030年期间的终端能源消费量的平均增长率将分别达到3．06％和2．18％，2030年CO2 的排放量将分别达到2000年的 2． 15及 1．60倍。其中工业及居民生活的能源消费量的增加速度快于其他部门。这表明了中国将要加快其工业化及都市化的进程．终端消费中，煤炭的消费量所占的比例将要逐年减少，而电力的比例则将逐年增大。     

The application of GPR to barrier-lagoon sedimentation study in Boao of Hainan Island

Sedimentary successions and internal structure of the coastal barrier-lagoon system of Boao, eastern Hainan Island were studied through utilizing data from test holes and trenches and ground-penetrating-radar (GPR) profiles. During late Pleistocene, fluvial and delta plains developed over an unevenly eroded bedrock during low sea level stand, followed by the formation of littoral and lagoon facies and defined coastal barrier-lagoon-estuary system during the post-glacial uppermost Pleistocene-lower Holocene eustatic rise of the sea level, and the upper Holocene high stand. GPR results show that Yudaitan, a sandy coastal bar backed by a low-laying land (shoal) just east of the active lagoon, is a continuous, parallel and slightly-wavy reflectors indicating homogeneous sandy or sandy gravel sediments, and inclined reflectors partly caused by progradation and accumulation of beach sand and gravel. Quasi-continuous, hummocky and chaotic reflectors from the shoal of Nangang village correspond to mixed accumula     

Architecture and evolution of syn-rift clastic depositional systems towards the tip of a major fault segment, Suez Rift, Egypt

ABSTRACT This paper investigates syn‐rift stratigraphic architecture and facies relationships along a 7 km long strike section towards the tip of a major, basin‐bounding normal fault segment (Thal Fault) in the Suez Rift, Egypt. In this location, the fault is composed of two precursor fault strands, Gushea and Abu Ideimat, linked by a jog or transfer fault. We document a Miocene syn‐rift succession, deposited more than c. 5.5 Myr after rift initiation, that is composed of a range of carbonate‐clastic facies associated with coarse‐grained deltaic, shoreface and offshore depositional systems. Key regionally correlatable stratal surfaces within this succession define time equivalent stratal units that exhibit variability in thickness and architecture, related to the interplay of both regional and local controls, in particular, the evolution of two, small‐scale (<6 km long) precursor fault strands (Gushea and Abu Ideimat). Integration of structural and stratigraphic data indicates that the boundary (relay ramp) between these two fault strands was a relative high during much of the rift event, with hard‐linkage and considerable displacement accumulation not occurring until at least c. 7.5 Myr after rift initiation. This is because: (i) the preserved stratigraphy is thinner in the hanging wall of the strand boundary; (ii) a eustatic sea‐level fall with an amplitude of 100 m generated more than 25 m of incision at the strand boundary, a region that has a final fault displacement of c. 600 m; and (iii) the fault strand boundary persisted as a footwall low and transport pathway for coarse‐grained deltas entering the basin. This study indicates that variability in stratal thickness and stratigraphic architecture towards the tip of the Thal Fault was related to the linkage history of two small‐scale (c. 6 km long) precursor fault segments. We suggest that similar, small‐scale stratal variability may occur repeatedly along the entire length of major basin‐bounding fault segments due to the process of fault growth by the linkage of smaller scale precursor strands.