Stochastic evaluation of simple pairing approaches to reconstruct incomplete rainfall time series

Two-station pairing approaches are routinely used to infill missing information in incomplete rainfall databases. We evaluated the performance of three simple methodologies to reconstruct incomplete time series in presence of variable nonlinear correlation between data pairs. Nonlinearity stems from the statistics describing the marginal peak-over-threshold (POT) values of rainfall events. A Monte Carlo analysis was developed to quantitatively assess expected errors from the use of chronological pairing (CP) with linear and nonlinear regression and frequency pairing (FP). CP is based on a priori selection of regression functions, while FP is based on matching the probability of non-exceedance of an event from one time series with the probability of non-exceedance of a similar event from another time series. We adopted a generalized Pareto (GP) model to describe POT events, and a t-copula algorithm to generate reference nonlinearly correlated pairs of random temporal distributions distributed according with the GP model. The results suggest that the optimal methodology strongly depends on GP statistics. In general, CP seems to provide the lowest errors when GP statistics were similar and correlation became linear; we found that a power-2 function performs well for the selected statistics when the number of missing points is limited. FP outperforms the other methods when POT statistics are different and variables are markedly nonlinearly correlated. Ensemble-based results seem to be supported by the analysis of observed precipitation at two real-world gauge stations.     

H I distribution in the region of the supernova remnant G78.2+2.1

Based on RATAN-600 21-cm line observations with an angular resolution of 2.4′ over a wide range of radial velocities, we analyze the neutral-hydrogen distribution in the region of the SNR G78.2+2.1. In addition to an H I shell at low radial velocities immediately surrounding the radio remnant, we detected an extended expanding H I shell, ≈3° in diameter, at a radial velocity of ?25 km s^?1, which closely coincides in coordinates and angular sizes with the outer X-ray shell discovered by Lozinskaya et al. (2000). The Hα emission studied by these authors in the SNR region also has a secondary peak at radial velocities from ?45 to ?20 km s^?1. Since the radial velocities of these two objects differ significantly, their distances can be assumed to differ as well; i.e., a chance projection of two distinct objects is observed.     

Persistent 22-year cycle in sunspot activity: Evidence for a relic solar magnetic field

We use the recently presented group sunspot number series to show that a persistent 22-year cyclicity exists in sunspot activity throughout the entire period of about 400 years of direct sunspot observations. The amplitude of this cyclicity is about 10% of the present sunspot activity level. A 22-year cyclicity in sunspot activity is naturally produced by the 22-year magnetic polarity cycle in the presence of a relic dipole magnetic field. Accordingly, a persistent 22-year cyclicity in sunspot activity gives an evidence for the existence of such a relic magnetic field in the Sun. The stable phase and the roughly constant amplitude of this cyclicity during times of very different sunspot activity level strongly support this interpretation.     

Exact Bianchi type-II, VIII and IX perfect fluid cosmological models in Saez-Ballester theory of gravitation

Exact Bianchi type-II, VIII and IX cosmological models are obtained in a scalar tensor theory proposed by Saez and Ballester (Phys. Lett. A 113:467, 1986) with perfect fluid as a source. Some physical and geometrical properties of the models are studied. It is observed that the models are free from initial singularities and they are expanding with time.     

Stability of equilibrium points in the generalized perturbed restricted three-body problem

This paper studies the existence and stability of equilibrium points under the influence of small perturbations in the Coriolis and the centrifugal forces, together with the non-sphericity of the primaries. The problem is generalized in the sense that the bigger and smaller primaries are respectively triaxial and oblate spheroidal bodies. It is found that the locations of equilibrium points are affected by the non-sphericity of the bodies and the change in the centrifugal force. It is also seen that the triangular points are stable for 0<μ<μ _c and unstable for \(\mu_{c}\le\mu <\frac{1}{2}\), where μ _c is the critical mass parameter depending on the above perturbations, triaxiality and oblateness. It is further observed that collinear points remain unstable.     

Chemical alternation of waters in the Kuroshio/Oyashio Interfrontal Zone

An intensive survey has been conducted of the distributions of some chemical properties (dissolved oxygen, nutrients and carbonate properties) in the Kuroshio/Oyashio Interfrontal Zone. Many low-salinity water patches were found down to depths of 640 m. Each chemical property also showed anomalies in these patches, but the degree of variation showed a low correlation with salinity. This may be due to the high variability of biological processes in the surface waters where these patches are formed. Vertical profiles of the chemical properties were also observed along the Kuroshio extension axis from 140.50°E to 146.75°E. The concentrations of nutrients and total carbonate (TC) in the water having densities greater than σ_θ=26.60 can be regarded as being formed by the isopycnal mixing of the Kuroshio component water and Oyashio component water and biological degradation within the density surfaces. This implies that the transport of chemical properties by the diapycnal mixing is negligible in these density layers in the K/O zone.     

The Problem of the Height Dependence of Magnetic Fields in Sunspots

To understand the physics of sunspots, it is important to know the properties of their magnetic field, and especially its height stratification plays a substantial role. There are mainly two methods to assess this stratification, but they yield different magnetic gradients in the photospheric layers. Determinations based on the several spectral lines of different formation heights and the slope of their profiles result in gradients of ?2 to ?3 G?km^?1, or even steeper. This is similar for the total magnetic field strength and for the vertical component of the magnetic field. The other option is to determine the horizontal partial derivatives of the magnetic field, and with the condition \(\operatorname{div} {{\boldsymbol {B}}} = 0\) also the vertical derivative is known. With this method, gradients of ?0.5 G?km^?1 and even shallower are obtained. Obviously, these results do not agree. If chromospheric spectral lines are included, only shallow gradients around ?0.5 G?km^?1 are obtained. Shallow gradients are also found from gyro-resonance measurements in the radio wave range 300?–?2000 GHz.Some indirect methods are also considered, but they cannot clarify the total picture. An analysis of a numerical simulation of a sunspot indicates a shallow gradient over a wide height range, but with slightly steeper gradients in deep layers.Several ideas to explain the discrepancy are also discussed. With no doubts cast on Maxwell’s equations, the first one is to look at the uncertainties of the formation heights of spectral lines, but a wider range of these heights would require an extension of the solar photosphere that is incompatible with observations and the theory of stellar atmospheres. Submerging and rising magnetic flux might play a role in the outer penumbra, if the resolution is too low to separate them, but it is not likely that this effect acts also in the umbra. A quick investigation assuming a spatial small scale structure of sunspots together with twist and writhe of individual flux tubes shows a reduction of the measured magnetic field strength for spectral lines sensitive to a larger height range. However, sophisticated investigations are required to prove that the explanation for the discrepancy lies here, and the problem of the height gradient of the magnetic field in sunspots is still not solved.     

Spacecraft Equipped with a Space Debris Removal System (Aerothermodynamics,Bulk–Mass Characteristics and Trajectories of Spacecraft Descent from Near-Earth Orbits)

The processes of space debris formation are described; the urgency of the problem of its removal from near-Earth space is noted. A method to prevent the clogging of space by equipping a spacecraft to be launched into orbit with additional devices, simple in design and mode of operation, is presented. The results of the estimation of aerothermodynamics, bulk–mass characteristics and trajectories of low-orbit spacecraft equipped with a space debris disposal system are presented.     

Axial rotation of near-earth asteroids: The influence of the YORP effect

The distribution of axial rotation velocities of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) substantially differs from that of the Main-Belt asteroids by an excess of both quickly and slowly rotating objects. Among the possible causes of this difference is the influence of the solar radiation—the so-called YORP effect—that arises from the absorption of solar energy and its reemission in the thermal range by a rotating body of irregular shape. It is known that the magnitude of this effect depends on the asteroid size and the quantity of received solar energy (the insolation). Analysis of the observational data showed that the mean diameter of NEAs decreases from the middle of the distribution to the edges, i.e., the excess of both slowly (ω ≤ 2 rev/day) and quickly (ω = 8–11 rev/day) rotating objects is formed due to the asteroids with sizes smaller than those in the middle of the distribution, which agrees well with the influence of the YORP effect. Moreover, the dependence of the axial rotation velocity of NEAs on the relative insolation shows that, for the NEAs referred to, both excesses are found in orbits where, on average, they receive 8–10% more solar energy than the NEAs in the middle of the distribution. This result also agrees with the character of the influence of the YORP effect and can be considered as an additional argument in its support. Thus, the study showed that one can infer that the currently available observational data suggest the possible influence of the YORP effect on the axial rotation of the near-Earth asteroids having sizes of D ～ 2 km and less. This is the first attempt to find the influence of the YORP effect on the axial rotation of the NEA family as a whole.