Prediction of hydrological phenomena using self-organizing mathematical models

The paper considers the application of self-organizing models, specifically, the method of grouped arguments consideration (MGAC), to forecast short and non-stationary time series of observations in the ocean. A sequence of operations for the treatment of observational series is suggested. To assess its efficiency, we have used mean monthly oxygen concentration data collected in the surface and near-bottom layers of the Taganrog Bay. It is shown that the application of the MGAC model allows one to reduce by two times the root-mean-square error of that of the series prediction by five points, in comparison with the Jenkins-Box regressional model. It has been concluded that the predictors' non-linear functions may be effectively used in the treatment of short samplings. Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

The choice of a dynamico-stochastic model for ocean monitoring — A compromise between the accuracy and cost of computations

In this paper we compare, two dynamico-stochastic models (DSMs) with different hydrodynamic parts, designed to study a large-scale North Atlantic region. As a performance criterion, RMS errors (over the horizon) in density and velocity field reconstruction are used. It has been shown that in some cases it seems rational to use DSMs with simplified hydrodynamic parts. This helps to expedite the computations and to reduce the related costs without much detriment to the quality of hydrophysical field simulation.UDK 551.465.001.573(261.1).Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Diet shifts of Caribbean grunts (Haemulidae) and snappers (Lutjanidae) and the relation with nursery-to-coral reef migrations

The spatial size distribution of grunts and snappers have previously indicated the separation of juveniles in nursery habitats from the adults on the coral reef. This implies life cycle migrations from nursery habitats (such as seagrass beds and mangroves) to the coral reef. If diet shifts are related to such migrations, then the diets of these fish must change before or around the fish size at which such migrations take place. A wide size range of juveniles of two grunt species (Haemulon sciurus and Haemulon flavolineatum) and of two snapper species (Lutjanus apodus and Ocyurus chrysurus) were caught in seagrass beds and mangroves, and their gut contents identified and quantified. Regression analysis between fish size and dietary importance of small crustaceans showed a negative relationship in all four species. Positive relations were found for H. sciurus, L. apodus and O. chrysurus between fish length and the dietary importance of decapods, and for L. apodusand O. chrysurus between fish length and prey fish importance. Critical changes in the fish diets with fish size were examined by application of a Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). The CCA yielded three clusters of size-classes of fishes with similar diets, and application of a Mantel test showed that each of these clusters had significantly different diets, and that each cluster diet was significantly specialised. The size at which a fish species ‘switched’ from one cluster to another was compared with size-at-maturity data and with the typical size at which these species migrate from the nursery habitats to the coral reef. H. sciurus and H. flavolineatum may be prompted to migrate from the nursery habitats to coral reef habitats because of dietary changes, or because of the development of the gonads. For L. apodus and O. chrysurus, a dietary changeover forms a more likely explanation for nursery-to-reef migrations than does sexual maturation because these species reach maturity at sizes much larger than the maximum size of individuals found in nursery habitats. Although other factors may theoretically initiate or promote the migration patterns, the results of this study indicate that ontogenetic dietary changes may crucially influence the nursery-to-coral reef migrations of these reef fish species.     

Primary production and plankton stocks in the Pacific Ocean and their seasonal variation according to remote sensing and field observations

Data collected from 20 years of observations by the P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (about 250 comprehensive ecosystem stations) are summarized to evaluate the primary production and biomass of the principal groups of plankton in the Pacific Ocean. The stations were classified into geographical regions according to satellite determined criteria. The areas of these regions were evaluated according to CZCS data from 1978 to 1986. The total value of primary production was evaluated as 26·9 Gt C year⁻¹. Taking the “bottle effect” correction into account, this value may be as high as 45.6 Gt C year⁻¹. Total biomass values of phytoplankton (134 Mt C), bacteria (86 Mt C), protozoa (26 Mt C) and mesoplankton (184 Mt C) were also calculated. Seasonal variabilities of all these values were remarkably insignificant.     

Vertical and lateral transport of organic carbon and the carbon budget in Santa Monica Basin, California

The flux and compositions of solvent-extractable lipid fractions were measured in particulate matter collected periodically by moored sediment traps in the Santa Monica Basin from 1985–1988. The purpose was to assess the compositional changes during settling, the carbon dynamics in the basin and to estimate the impacts of energy-related by-products on the surface sediments. Sediment traps recorded consistently high lipid fluxes in the eastern slope relative to the central basin, reflecting elevated terrigenous carbon inputs possibly from land-based human activities. Generally, lipid fluxes decrease offshore but increase vertically with water depth below 500m, implying lateral transport of particles. The steep decline of flux in the top 500m of the water is related to the rapid decomposition and mineralization of the marine-derived cellular carbon compounds. Less than 5% of the marine lipid components reach the seabed. In contrast, preferential preservation of terrigenous lipid is clearly evident from the chemistry of deeper traps and surface sediments.The lateral transport of particles is reflected in the presence of higher plant-derived lignin phenols and sewage-derived coprostanol and epicoprostanol in the deep trap material as well as in surface sediment throughout the basin. Petroleum triterpanes characteristic of natural seepage also permeates through the entire basin. Based on the data collected from both the trap particulte matter and surface sediments, a carbon budget for the Santa Monica Basin has been constructed.     

Mass flux and undertow in a surf zone

The mass of water carried shoreward by the breaking waves in a surf zone will, in a two-dimensional situation, be compensated by a seaward return flow, the undertow. It is shown that the undertow is driven by the local difference between radiation stress and the set-up pressure gradient which only balance each other in average over the depth. Turbulent shear stresses are required to maintain a steady situation. Comparison with measurements confirms the theoretical results.     

Application of cluster analysis to study the relationship between the fine stratification and the background hydrological conditions in the ocean

Cluster analysis is discussed in the context of its application to map various test areas in the sea. By analysing the correspondence of the identified categories to areas with specific hydrological conditions, an attempt is made to relate the types of fine structure to diverse background conditions. With two test areas mapped, a conclusion is made as to the possible application of cluster analysis to this end.Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

A note on significant wave height

In this note conservative bounds for significant crest height and amplitude obtained from the crossing intensity of a sea are presented. For Gaussian models of a sea level, the Rayleigh approximation for the distributions of amplitude and crest height is proved to provide conservative values for the expected significant wave characteristics. The results are illustrated by examples in which both Gaussian and non-Gaussian models for a sea are considered.     

Recent and Late Holocene environments on the southeastern shelf of the Laptev Sea as inferred from microfossil data

The study of diatoms and benthic foraminifers from the southeastern shelf of the Laptev Sea shows that their most diverse and abundant recent assemblages populate the peripheral underwater part of the Lena River delta representing the marginal filter of the sea. This area is characterized by an intense interaction between the fresh waters of the Siberian rivers and the basin seawater, the Atlantic one included. Local Late Holocene (～last 2300 years) environments reflect the main regional and global paleoclimatic changes, the Medieval Warm Period (～600–1100 years B.P.) and the Little Ice Age (～100–600 years B.P.) inclusive. In addition, the composition and distribution of planktonic foraminifers implies a strong influence of the Atlantic water during the Holocene optimum ～5100–6200 years B.P.