ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCES ON THE CHANGE OF HISTORICAL FARMLAND USE IN SHANDONG PROVINCE DURING THE QING DYNASTY （1644-1911）

How land-cover has been changed by human use over the last 300 years is one of the five overarching questions guiding the Land-use/Cover Change (LUCC) Science/Research Plan. China has variety of historical docu-ments providing unique data superiority. So the characteristics of farmland area in Shandong Province during the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) are summarized firstly: 1) the rising trend of farmland area was striking; 2) farmland area had re-markable fluctuation; 3) farmland area per capita decreased dramatically; 4) wasteland reclamation index increased rapidly. Then, the driving forces of farmland area change are analyzed. It is concluded that natural and human factors are jointly influential. Among the driving forces, human dimensions are the main factors of farmland area change,which direct the general tendency of the changes mentioned above. And the natural factors influence the stability of farmland area as well. Variation of the natural factors would act as the major contributory factor to farmland area change during years or periods of abrupt climatic changes, or during the intensive occurring periods of natural hazards.Besides, the passive aspects of human factors, such as war chaos also influenced the fluctuation of the farmland area.This research indicates that it is feasible to study the land-use/cover change by Chinese historical literatures, which has huge potential to provide a comprehensive picture of the growing dominance of human land-use and land-cover pat-terns that can be used in many global change research oroiects.     

SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

Jets in AGN as seen with an ultimate angular resolution

Jets and cores in Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) constitute the dominant radio structural pattern in a broad range of angular scales from hundreds of arc seconds down to sub-milliarcseconds. This brief review desribes some recent results in studying the most compact `core-jet' morphologies in AGN using Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) technique. They include measurements of the cross-section brightness distribution in pc-scale radio jets and attempts to investigate the most compact cores with brightness temperatures in excess of 10¹³ K.     

TRIFFID observations of the cores of the three globular clusters M15, M92 and NGC 6712

We present the results of TRIFFID simultaneous V - and B -band observations of the cores of the globular clusters M15, M92 and NGC 6712. A variability search of their dense centres was made feasible through performing post-exposure image sharpening on the images, increasing the image resolution by a factor of ∼2. The isis implementation of the image subtraction technique developed by Alard & Lupton was then used to detect flux variations in our image sets. We have obtained periods for all observable variables (in our field of view) in NGC 6712 and we have found two new RR Lyrae variables (an RRab and an RRc). We have confirmed three variables in our field of view of the M92. For M15, we detect 48 variables in our field of view, 23 of which are new discoveries. We obtain periods and amplitudes for all variables and classify new ones based on the light-curve shape, the most significant period and the mean magnitude in the V band. Among the detected RR Lyrae we find 19 RRc, 12 RRab and two RRd types. In the subsequent analysis we find a marked increase in RRc over RRab variables in the core. In a refined procedure to search for fainter objects we find no dwarf novae in our field of view of M15. Simulations performed on the data set to quantify our sensitivity to such objects indicate that an upper limit of 10 dwarf novae (at 92 per cent probability) exist in our field of view. The implications this result has on globular clusters are discussed.     

WR 7a: a V Sagittae or a qWR star?

The star WR 7a, also known as SPH 2, has a spectrum that resembles that of V Sagittae stars although no O  vi emission has been reported. The Temporal Variance Spectrum – TVS – analysis of our data shows weak but strongly variable emission of O  vi lines which is below the noise level in the intensity spectrum.
Contrary to what is seen in V Sagittae stars, optical photometric monitoring shows very little, if any, flickering. We found evidence of periodic variability. The most likely photometric period is   P _phot= 0.227(±14) d  , while radial velocities suggest a period of   P _spec= 0.204(±13) d  . One-day aliases of these periods can not be ruled out. We call attention to similarities with HD 45166 and DI Cru (= WR 46), where multiple periods are present. They may be associated to the binary motion or to non-radial oscillations.
In contrast to a previous conclusion by Pereira et al., we show that WR 7a contains hydrogen. The spectrum of the primary star seems to be detectable as the N  v 4604 Å  absorption line is visible. If so, it means that the wind is optically thin in the continuum and that it is likely to be a helium main sequence star.
Given the similarity to HD 45166, we suggests that WR 7a may be a qWR – quasi Wolf–Rayet – star. Its classification is WN4h/CE in the Smith, Shara & Moffat three-dimensional classification system.     

The D-CIXS X-ray mapping spectrometer on SMART-1

The D-CIXS Compact X-ray Spectrometer will provide high quality spectroscopic mapping of the Moon, the primary science target of the ESA SMART-1 mission. D-CIXS consists of a high throughput spectrometer, which will perform spatially localised X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy. It will also carry a solar monitor, to provide the direct calibration needed to produce a global map of absolute lunar elemental abundances, the first time this has been done. Thus it will achieve ground breaking science within a resource envelope far smaller than previously thought possible for this type of instrument, by exploiting two new technologies, swept charge devices and micro-structure collimators. The new technology does not require cold running, with its associated overheads to the spacecraft. At the same time it will demonstrate a radically novel approach to building a type of instrument essential for the BepiColombo mission and potential future planetary science targets.     

Transneptunian Binaries

The discovery of binaries among the population of transneptunian objects isa landmark advance in the study of this remote region of the solar system.Determination of binary orbits will enable direct determination of systemmasses, fundamental for determination of density, internal structure, and bulkcomposition. The mere existence of binaries with the observed separations andapparent masses constrains models of planetary formation.     

The Roche Limit

The role of tides in deforming and possibly disrupting a secondary body orbiting about a primary body has been known for a considerable time. This was first inspired by the observations of ocean tides on Earth and then seen as playing an important role in the formation and evolution of the Earth–Moon system. Finally, in the beginning of the 20th century it was generally thought to have a significant role in the formation of the solar system through the tidal disruption of the Sun. Here, an overview of the historical developments of the ideas concerned with tidal disruption of a secondary body that can lead to mass loss is given. Some discussion of possible extensions to consider more realistic situations where the secondary body may not be moving on a circular orbit and may not rotate so as to maintain the phase-on configuration to the primary body is also given.     

An empirical model of the daily evolution of the coronal index

Global changes of the solar activity can be expressed by the coronal index that is based upon the total irradiance of the coronal 530.3 nm green line from observations at five stations. Daily mean values of the coronal index of solar activity and other well-correlated solar indices are analyzed for the period 1966–1998 covering over three solar cycles. The significant correlation of this index with the sunspot number and the solar flare index have led to an analytical expression which can reproduce the coronal index of solar activity as a function of these parameters. This expression explains well the existence of the two maxima during the solar cycles taking into account the evolution of the magnetic field that can be expressed by some sinusoidal terms during solar maxima and minima. The accuracy between observed and calculated values of the coronal index on a daily basis reaches the value of 71%. It is concluded that the representative character of the coronal index is preserved even when using daily data and can therefore allow us to study long-term, intermediate and short-term variations for the Sun as a star, in association with different periodical solar–terrestrial phenomena useful for space weather studies.     

2D/3D Dust Continuum Radiative Transfer Codes to Analyze and Predict VLTI Observations

Radiative Transfer (RT) codes with image capability are a fundamental tool for preparing interferometric observations and for interpreting visibility data. In view of the upcoming VLTI facilities, we present the first comparison of images/visibilities coming from two 3D codes that use completely different techniques to solve the problem of self-consistent continuum RT. In addition, we focus on the astrophysical case of a disk distorted by tidal interaction with by-passing stars or internal planets and investigate for which parameters the distortion can be best detected in the mid-infrared using the mid-infrared interferometric device MIDI. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.