Climate policy strength compared: China,the US,the EU,India, Russia,and Japan

The few systematic international comparisons of climate policy strength made so far have serious weaknesses, particularly those that assign arbitrary weightings to different policy instrument types in order to calculate an aggregate score for policy strength. This article avoids these problems by ranking the six biggest emitters by far – China, the US, the EU, India, Russia, and Japan – on a set of six key policy instruments that are individually potent and together representative of climate policy as a whole: carbon taxes, emissions trading, feed-in tariffs, renewable energy quotas, fossil fuel power plant bans, and vehicle emissions standards. The results cast strong doubt on any idea that there is a clear hierarchy on climate policy with Europe at the top: the EU does lead on a number of policies but so does Japan. China, the US, and India each lead on one area. Russia is inactive on all fronts. At the same time climate policy everywhere remains weak compared to what it could be.

Policy relevance

This study enables climate policy strength, defined as the extent to which the statutory provisions of climate policies are likely to restrict GHG emissions if implemented as intended, to be assessed and compared more realistically across space and time. As such its availability for the six biggest emitters, which together account for over 70% of global CO₂ emissions, should facilitate international negotiations (1) by giving participants a better idea of where major emitters stand relative to each other as far as climate policy stringency is concerned, and (2) by identifying areas of weakness that need action.     

O/O mapping and hydrogeology of a short-lived (≈10 years) fumarolic (>500°C) meteoric–hydrothermal event in the upper part of the 0.76 Ma Bishop Tuff outflow sheet, California

¹⁸O/¹⁶O data from the 200-m-thick, 0.76 Ma Bishop Tuff outflow sheet provide evidence for a vigorous, short-lived (≈10 years), high-temperature, fumarolic meteoric–hydrothermal event. This is proved by: (1) the juxtaposition in the upper, partially welded Bishop Tuff of low-¹⁸O groundmass/glass (δ¹⁸O=−5 to +3) with coexisting quartz and feldspar phenocrysts having magmatic δ¹⁸O values (+8.7±0.3; +7.5±0.3); and (2) the fact that these kinds of ¹⁸O/¹⁶O signatures correlate very well with morphological features and mapped zones of fumarolic activity. Profiles of δ¹⁸O with depth in the Bishop Tuff within the fumarole area define a 40- to 50-m-thick, low-¹⁸O, stratigraphic zone that is sandwiched between the essentially unwelded near-surface portion of the tuff and an underlying, densely welded black tuff that displays magmatic ¹⁸O/¹⁶O values. Shallow-dipping columnar joints and other fumarolic features (i.e., subhorizontal tubular conduits and steep fissures) correlate very well with these pervasively devitrified, low-¹⁸O zones. The base of the low-¹⁸O zone is extremely sharp (3‰ per meter) and is located directly above the transition from partially welded tuff to densely welded black tuff. The observed average whole-rock ¹⁸O-depletions within this low-¹⁸O zone are about 6–7‰, requiring meteoric water/rock ratios in excess of 0.24 in mass units. Rainfall on the surface of the tuff would not have been high enough to supply this much H₂O in the short lifetime of fumarolic activity, suggesting that some recharge must have been from groundwater flow through the upper part of the tuff, above the sloping (1°–5°) top of the impermeable lower zone. This is compatible with the observation that the fumarolic areas roughly correlate with the preeruptive regional drainage pattern. Some of this recharge may in part have been from the lake that filled Long Valley caldera, which was dammed by the Bishop Tuff up to the level of this boundary between the partially and densely welded zones (≈7000 ft, the elevation of the highest Long Valley Lake shorelines). Gazis et al. had previously shown that the 2.8-Ma intracaldera Chegem Tuff from the Caucasus Mountains exhibits exactly the same kind of ¹⁸O-signature that we have correlated with fossil fumaroles in the Bishop Tuff outflow sheet. Although not recognized as such by McConnell et al.; ¹⁸O/¹⁶O data from drill-hole samples from the intracaldera Bishop Tuff in Long Valley also display this characteristic ¹⁸O signature (i.e., analogous δ¹⁸O-depth profiles, as well as low-¹⁸O groundmass coexisting with high-¹⁸O feldspar phenocrysts). This fumarolic ¹⁸O/¹⁶O signature is observed to much greater depths (≈650–750 m) in the intracaldera tuffs (≈1500 m thick) than it is in the ≈200-m-thick Bishop Tuff outflow sheet (≈80 m depth).     

The ecological implications of a Yakutian mammoth's last meal

Part of a large male woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) was preserved in permafrost in northern Yakutia. It was radiocarbon dated to ca. 18,500 ¹⁴C yr BP (ca. 22,500 cal yr BP). Dung from the lower intestine was subjected to a multiproxy array of microscopic, chemical, and molecular techniques to reconstruct the diet, the season of death, and the paleoenvironment. Pollen and plant macro-remains showed that grasses and sedges were the main food, with considerable amounts of dwarf willow twigs and a variety of herbs and mosses. Analyses of 110-bp fragments of the plastid rbcL gene amplified from DNA and of organic compounds supplemented the microscopic identifications. Fruit-bodies of dung-inhabiting Ascomycete fungi which develop after at least one week of exposure to air were found inside the intestine. Therefore the mammoth had eaten dung. It was probably mammoth dung as no bile acids were detected among the fecal biomarkers analysed. The plant assemblage and the presence of the first spring vessels of terminal tree-rings of dwarf willows indicated that the animal died in early spring. The mammoth lived in extensive cold treeless grassland vegetation interspersed with wetter, more productive meadows. The study demonstrated the paleoecological potential of several biochemical analytical techniques.     

Subsidence and exhumation of the Mesozoic Qiangtang Basin: Implications for the growth of the Tibetan plateau

The subsidence and exhumation histories of the Qiangtang Basin and their contributions to the early evolution of the Tibetan plateau are vigorously debated. This paper reconstructs the subsidence history of the Mesozoic Qiangtang Basin with 11 selected composite stratigraphic sections and constrains the first stage of cooling using apatite fission track data. Facies analysis, biostratigraphy, palaeo‐environment interpretation and palaeo‐water depth estimation are integrated to create 11 composite sections through the basin. Backstripped subsidence calculations combined with previous work on sediment provenance and timing of deformation show that the evolution of the Mesozoic Qiangtang Basin can be divided into two stages. From Late Triassic to Early Jurassic times, the North Qiangtang was a retro‐foreland basin. In contrast, the South Qiangtang was a collisional pro‐foreland basin. During Middle Jurassic‐Early Cretaceous times, the North Qiangtang is interpreted as a hinterland basin between the Jinsha orogen and the Central Uplift; the South Qiangtang was controlled by subduction of Meso‐Tethyan Ocean lithosphere and associated dynamic topography combined with loading from the Central Uplift. Detrital apatite fission track ages from Mesozoic sandstones concentrate in late Early to Late Cretaceous (120.9–84.1 Ma) and Paleocene–Eocene (65.4–40.1 Ma). Thermal history modelling results record Early Cretaceous rapid cooling; the termination of subsidence and onset of exhumation of the Mesozoic Qiangtang Basin suggest that the accumulation of crustal thickening in central Tibet probably initiated during Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous times (150–130 Ma), involving underthrusting of both the Lhasa and Songpan–Ganze terranes beneath the Qiangtang terrane or the collision of Amdo terrane.     

西藏特提斯喜马拉雅白垩纪中期Cenomanian-Turonian期碳同位素偏移

过去大量关于白垩纪中期Cenomanian-Turonian晴期的古海洋及其界线时期缺氧事件研究的高分辨率碳氧同位素的实际材料绝大多数都来自深海钻探(DSDlP)、大洋钻探(0DP)和欧美的一些较深水盆地．通过对西藏南部地区(位处特提斯洋东南)同一层位高分辨率碳同位素分析,目的在于为Cenomanian-Turonian古海洋及全球事件的碳同位素响应提供西藏地区的对比材料,并试图就浅海相的变化情况进行探讨．西藏定日和岗巴地区的高分辨率碳同位素分析结果显示．δ^13C值在Cenomanian中晚期稳定,Cenomanian-Turonian界线时期快速高幅正偏,Turonian期持续负偏,这种长期变化趋势在特提斯甚至全球可以对比．深入研究还发现,Turonian中后期存在2个较大幅度的负偏凹陷区,与来自欧洲的相关资料在偏移时间和幅度方面惊人相似．对比分析表明,岗巴地区δ^13C值长期变化和短期波动幅度及步调与定日及全球其他地区存在一定差别,幅度差异可能与样品制备和成岩改造有关,步调不一致则可能受生物地层定位的影响．研究区近海一半远洋环境Cenomanian-Turonian界线时期未出现典型富有机质黑色页岩,说明δ^13C值极度正偏与黑色页岩的出现并非一对应．     

Can sodium hypochlorite reduce the risk of species introductions from diapausing invertebrate eggs in non-ballasted ships?

Many transoceanic vessels enter the Great Lakes carrying residual ballast water and sediment that harbours live animals and diapausing eggs. In this study, we examine the potential for sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl) to reduce the risk of species introductions from diapausing invertebrate eggs in residual ballast sediment. We collected sediment from three transoceanic vessels and from Lake Erie and exposed them to NaOCl concentrations between 0 and 10,000 mg/L for 24 h. Hatching success was reduced by >89% in all four experiments at 1,000 mg/L relative to unexposed controls. Fewer species hatched at high than at low NaOCl concentrations. Based on an average residual ballast of 46.8 tonnes, the volume of NaOCl required to treat inbound vessels is 374 L. Impacts of NaOCl use could be minimized by neutralization of treated residuals with sodium bisulfite. Further research is needed, however, to evaluate the effect of NaOCl on ballast tank corrosion.     

A population health model for integrated assessment models

In this paper we present the initial results from a project to develop a population health model so we can extend the scenarios included in the IPCC’s Special Report on Emission Scenarios to include population health status. Our initial hypothesis was that some climatic variable, particularly temperature, would have a significant impact on health outcomes. After experiments – using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data on Years of Life Lost (YLL) and Years Lived with disability (YLD) both by WHO region and by five degree latitude band as outcome variables – failed, we settled on life expectancy (LE) as the best measure of health status. We discovered that there is a solid relationship between LE and the GBD data from our first experiments, allowing us to extend the results from the LE model. The LE model used cross section data on LE for 91 countries and included temperature, per capita income, access to clean water and sanitation, literacy, simple medical attention, nutrition, per capita medical expenditure, electricity use per capita, and automobiles per capita as independent variables. While all were individually associated with LE, our model of choice included literacy, access to clean water and sanitation, simple medical attention, an indictor variable for Sub-Saharan Africa and purchasing-power parity per capita income. Note that neither temperature nor calories enter into this model. The fit between life expectancy, as predicted by this model, and actual life expectancy was quite good (R ² =0.90), except for Rwanda, Uganda, and Madagascar; these countries accounted for one half of the unexplained variation in the model. The LE model was then used to develop trajectories of life expectancy in India for the four IPCC SRES storylines, where values for the independent variables were extrapolated based on the story line content. YLL and YLD estimates were created using the current cross relationship of these outcomes to LE. Given the lack of a general role for climate in our LE model, future work is planned to explore how to add detailed climate related impacts, to explore alternative nutritional variables, as well as extend the data set to allow a cross-section time-series approach.     

Spectral Irradiance and Phytoplankton Community Composition in a Blackwater-Dominated Estuary,Winyah Bay,South Carolina,USA

We investigated spatial and temporal relationships between spectral irradiance and phytoplankton community composition in the blackwater-influenced estuary Winyah Bay, South Carolina. Upstream, high concentrations of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorbed blue wavelengths, resulting in a predominantly red light field. Green light prevailed downstream near the lower-CDOM coastal ocean, and phytoplankton community composition was distinct from upstream and mid-estuarine communities. Diatoms were abundant throughout the estuary in January, August, and October, cryptophytes dominated in July, and chlorophytes were abundant in December 2006. Only diatoms and chlorophytes showed significant covariation with the spectral attenuation coefficient (k(λ)): Chlorophytes showed positive relationships with k(442) (blue light) while diatoms were negatively correlated with k(442) and k(490) (violet to blue). Phytoplankton community composition in Winyah Bay appears to be driven by strong horizontal flow rather than gradients in spectral irradiance, but results indicate that water color is likely to play a greater role in blackwater-influenced estuaries with longer residence times.     

A global map of rainfed cropland areas (GMRCA) at the end of last millennium using remote sensing

The overarching goal of this study was to produce a global map of rainfed cropland areas (GMRCA) and calculate country-by-country rainfed area statistics using remote sensing data. A suite of spatial datasets, methods and protocols for mapping GMRCA were described. These consist of: (a) data fusion and composition of multi-resolution time-series mega-file data-cube (MFDC), (b) image segmentation based on precipitation, temperature, and elevation zones, (c) spectral correlation similarity (SCS), (d) protocols for class identification and labeling through uses of SCS R²-values, bi-spectral plots, space-time spiral curves (ST-SCs), rich source of field-plot data, and zoom-in-views of Google Earth (GE), and (e) techniques for resolving mixed classes by decision tree algorithms, and spatial modeling. The outcome was a 9-class GMRCA from which country-by-country rainfed area statistics were computed for the end of the last millennium. The global rainfed cropland area estimate from the GMRCA 9-class map was 1.13 billion hectares (Bha). The total global cropland areas (rainfed plus irrigated) was 1.53 Bha which was close to national statistics compiled by FAOSTAT (1.51 Bha). The accuracies and errors of GMRCA were assessed using field-plot and Google Earth data points. The accuracy varied between 92 and 98% with kappa value of about 0.76, errors of omission of 2–8%, and the errors of commission of 19–36%.