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51.
52.
The importance of sulfur dioxide emissions for climate change is now established, although substantial uncertainties remain.
This paper presents projections for future sulfur dioxide emissions using the MiniCAM integrated assessment model. A new income-based
parameterization for future sulfur dioxide emissions controls is developed based on purchasing power parity (PPP) income estimates
and historical trends related to the implementation of sulfur emissions limitations. This parameterization is then used to
produce sulfur dioxide emissions trajectories for the set of scenarios developed for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios
(SRES). We use the SRES methodology to produce harmonized SRES scenarios using the latest version of the MiniCAM model. The
implications, and requirements, for integrated assessment modeling of sulfur dioxide emissions are discussed. We find that
sulfur emissions eventually decline over the next century under a wide set of assumptions. These emission reductions result
from a combination of emission controls, the adoption of advanced electric technologies, and a shift away from the direct
end use of coal with increasing income levels. Only under a scenario where incomes in developing regions increase slowly do
global emission levels remain at close to present levels over the next century. Under a climate policy that limits emissions
of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide emissions fall in a relatively narrow range. In most cases, the relative climatic effect
of sulfur dioxide emissions decreases dramatically to a point where sulfur dioxide is only a minor component of climate forcing
by the end of the century. Ecological effects of sulfur dioxide, however, could be significant in some developing regions
for many decades to come. 相似文献
53.
Obituary
Obituary Robert W. Pennak 相似文献54.
Background
Forest fuel treatments have been proposed as tools to stabilize carbon stocks in fire-prone forests in the Western U.S.A. Although fuel treatments such as thinning and burning are known to immediately reduce forest carbon stocks, there are suggestions that these losses may be paid back over the long-term if treatments sufficiently reduce future wildfire severity, or prevent deforestation. Although fire severity and post-fire tree regeneration have been indicated as important influences on long-term carbon dynamics, it remains unclear how natural variability in these processes might affect the ability of fuel treatments to protect forest carbon resources. We surveyed a wildfire where fuel treatments were put in place before fire and estimated the short-term impact of treatment and wildfire on aboveground carbon stocks at our study site. We then used a common vegetation growth simulator in conjunction with sensitivity analysis techniques to assess how predicted timescales of carbon recovery after fire are sensitive to variation in rates of fire-related tree mortality, and post-fire tree regeneration.Results
We found that fuel reduction treatments were successful at ameliorating fire severity at our study site by removing an estimated 36% of aboveground biomass. Treated and untreated stands stored similar amounts of carbon three years after wildfire, but differences in fire severity were such that untreated stands maintained only 7% of aboveground carbon as live trees, versus 51% in treated stands. Over the long-term, our simulations suggest that treated stands in our study area will recover baseline carbon storage 10?C35?years more quickly than untreated stands. Our sensitivity analysis found that rates of fire-related tree mortality strongly influence estimates of post-fire carbon recovery. Rates of regeneration were less influential on recovery timing, except when fire severity was high.Conclusions
Our ability to predict the response of forest carbon resources to anthropogenic and natural disturbances requires models that incorporate uncertainty in processes important to long-term forest carbon dynamics. To the extent that fuel treatments are able to ameliorate tree mortality rates or prevent deforestation resulting from wildfire, our results suggest that treatments may be a viable strategy to stabilize existing forest carbon stocks. 相似文献55.
Solubility of Pt in sulphide mattes: Implications for the genesis of PGE-rich horizons in layered intrusions 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Raúl O.C. Fonseca Ian H. Campbell Hugh St. C. ONeill Charlotte M. Allen 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2009,73(19):5764-5777
The partitioning of Pt in sulphide melt (matte) has been studied as a function of fS2 and fO2 at 1200 and 1300 °C. The results show that the solubility of Pt in mattes increases strongly with increasing fS2 and decreases weakly with increasing fO2. The increase in Pt solubility with increasing fS2 is attributed to Pt dissolving in the melt as a sulphide species and the weak inverse dependence of Pt solubility on fO2 to the diluting effect of increasing O in the melt at high fO2. These results, coupled with measurements of Pt solubility in silicate melts taken from the literature, allow the calculation of Pt matte/silicate-melt partition coefficients () for a range of conditions pertinent to the formation of Pt-rich horizons in layered intrusions. The calculated values range between 107 and 1011, depending on fO2 and fS2, several orders of magnitude higher than previously published values. Our preferred value for for conditions appropriate to the Merensky Reef is 107 and for the Stillwater Pt-rich horizon 108. The new results are consistent with the magmatic hypothesis for Pt-rich horizons in layered intrusions. 相似文献
56.
Hugh M. French Susan W. S. Millar 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2014,43(3):667-677
This paper presents three maps that summarize current knowledge as to the extent of Past permafrost and Relict permafrost in North America at approximately the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; c. 25–17 ka BP) and during subsequent deglaciation until c. 10 ka BP. Analysis of the post‐1983 literature suggests that the extent of Past permafrost south of the LGM limit was broader in eastern North America and slightly narrower in the Interior Great Plains than previously mapped. The recognition and dating of Relict permafrost in the nonglaciated terrain of the northwestern Arctic suggests that permafrost may be of great antiquity and can persist under changing climatic conditions. The formation of permafrost features during deglaciation suggests that ice‐proximal climatic conditions remained cold at least long enough for short‐lived permafrost aggradation; a latitudinal gradient is evident in the timing of its development as the Laurentide Ice Sheet retreated. 相似文献
57.
Michael I. H. Hartnady Christopher L. Kirkland Chris Clark Catherine V. Spaggiari R. Hugh Smithies Noreen J. Evans Brad J. McDonald 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2019,37(6):823-838
Titanite can be found in rocks of wide compositional range, is reactive, growing or regrowing during metamorphic and hydrothermal events, and is generally amenable to U–Pb geochronology. Experimental evidence suggest that titanite has a closure temperature for Pb ranging from 550 to 650°C, and thus titanite dates are commonly interpreted as cooling ages. However, this view has been challenged in recent years by evidence from natural titanite which suggests the closure temperature may be significantly higher (up to 800°C). Here, we investigate titanite in an enclave of migmatitic gneiss included within a granite intrusion. The titanite crystals exhibit textural features characteristic of fluid‐mediated mass transfer processes on length scales of <100 µm. These textural features are associated with variation in both Pb concentrations and distinct U–Pb isotopic compositions. Zr‐in‐titanite thermometry indicates that modification of the titanite occurred at temperatures in excess of 840°C, in the presence of a high‐T silicate melt. The Pb concentration gradients preserved in these titanite crystals are used to determine the diffusivity of Pb in titanite under high‐T conditions. We estimate diffusivities ranging from 2 × 10?22 to 5 × 10?25 m2/s. These results are significantly lower than experimental data predict yet are consistent with other empirical data on natural titanites, suggesting that Pb diffusivity is similar to that of Sr. Thus our data challenge the wide‐held assumption that U–Pb titanite dates only reflect cooling ages. 相似文献
58.
Thomas Bernard Hugh D. Sinclair Mark Naylor Frdric Christophoul Mary Ford 《Basin Research》2021,33(1):118-137
The transition to a post‐orogenic state in mountain ranges has been identified by a change from active subsidence to isostatic rebound of the foreland basin. However, the nature of the interplay between isostatic rebound and sediment supply, and their impact on the topographic evolution of a range and foreland basin during this transition, has not been fully investigated. Here, we use a box model to explore the syn‐ to post‐orogenic evolution of foreland basin/thrust wedge systems. Using a set of parameter values that approximate the northern Pyrenees and the neighbouring Aquitaine foreland basin, we evaluate the controls on sediment drape over the frontal parts of the retro‐wedge following cessation of crustal thickening. Conglomerates preserved at approximately 600‐m elevation, which is ~ 300 m above the present mountain front in the northern Pyrenees are ca. 12 Ma, approximately 10 Myrs younger than the last evidence of crustal thickening in the wedge. Using the model, this post‐orogenic sediment drape is explained by the combination of a sustained, high sediment influx from the range into the basin relative to the efflux out of the basin, combined with cessation of the generation of accommodation space through basin subsidence. Post‐orogenic sediment drape is considered a generic process that is likely to be responsible for elevated low‐gradient surfaces and preserved remnants of continental sedimentation draping the outer margins of the northern Pyrenean thrust wedge. 相似文献
59.
Photometric Stability of the Lunar Surface 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Hugh H. Kieffer 《Icarus》1997,130(2):323-327
The rate at which cratering events currently occur on the Moon is considered in light of their influence on the use of the Moon as a radiometric standard. The radiometric effect of small impact events is determined empirically from the study of Clementine images. Events that would change the integral brightness of the moon by 1% are expected once per 1.4 Gyr. Events that cause a 1% shift in one pixel for low Earth-orbiting instruments with a 1-km nadir field of view are expected approximately once each 43 Myr. Events discernible at 1% radiometric resolution with a 5 arc-sec telescope resolution correspond to crater diameters of approximately 210 m and are expected once every 200 years. These rates are uncertain by a factor of two. For a fixed illumination and observation geometry, the Moon can be considered photometrically stable to 1 × 10−8per annum for irradiance, and 1 × 10−7per annum for radiance at a resolution common for spacecraft imaging instruments, exceeding reasonable instrument goals by six orders of magnitude. 相似文献
60.
The near infrared spectral reflectance of pure CH4, CO2, H2O, H2S, NH3 and NH4SH frosts has been measured. Comparison with recent Galilean satellite spectra indicates that H2O at approximately 150°K and with about 0.01 cm grain size is the major component on the surface of JII (Europa) and JIII (Ganymede); upper limits for the remaining frosts range from 5 to 28%. Materials other than these frosts must be present on the surface of JI (Io) and JIV (Callisto). 相似文献