Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community

A technique to evaluate the risk of storm tides (the combination of a storm surge and tide) under present and enhanced greenhouse conditions has been applied to Cairns on the north-eastern Australian coast. The technique combines a statistical model for cyclone occurrence with a state-of-the-art storm surge inundation model and involves the random generation of a large number of storm tide simulations. The set of simulations constitutes a synthetic record of extreme sea-level events that can be analysed to produce storm tide return periods. The use of a dynamic storm surge model with overland flooding capability means that the spatial extent of flooding is also implicitly modelled. The technique has the advantage that it can readily be modified to include projected changes to cyclone behaviour due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Sea-level heights in the current climate for return periods of 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years have been determined to be 2.0 m, 2.3 m, 3.0 m and 3.4 m respectively. In an enhanced greenhouse climate (around 2050), projected increases in cyclone intensity and mean sea-level see these heights increase to 2.4 m, 2.8 m, 3.8 m and 4.2 m respectively. The average area inundated by events with a return period greater than 100 years is found to more than double under enhanced greenhouse conditions.     

Peculiarities of Dynamic Slip Nucleation in a Thin Granular Layer

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—Granular media determine the dynamics of many natural systems including faults in the Earth’s crust. The paper addresses the laboratory...     

Expansion of the principal functions of Keplerian motion using complex variables

A special system of canonical variables is considered. An algorithm for expanding the principal functions of Keplerian motion in new elements is presented. The advantage of the proposed system is a relatively small number of terms in the classical expansions of the unperturbed two-body problem. A method for expanding the time derivatives of the rectangular coordinates is proposed. Some estimates of the number of terms in the presented expansions have been obtained through numerical experiments.     

Mean crustal velocity: a critical parameter for interpreting crustal structure and crustal growth

Mean crustal velocity is a critical parameter for genesis of continental crystalline crust because it is a function of mean crustal composition and therefore may be used to resolve continental crustal growth in space and time. Although the best values of mean crustal velocity are determined from wide-angle reflection measurements, most studied here necessarily come from vertical averages in crustal refraction determinations. The mode of 158 values of mean crustal velocity is 6.3 km/s, a velocity which corresponds to a mean crustal composition of granodiorite to felsic quartz diorite; Archean crust may be slightly more mafic. Mean crustal velocities range from 5.8 to 7.0 km/s. The lowest values invariably are found in thermally disturbed rift zones and the highest values correspond to velocities in gabbro. Velocities in island arcs may be as low as 6.0 km/s but are typically 6.5–6.9 km/s which corresponds to andesitic composition; estimates of island arc composition are andesitic. If values of mean crustal velocity are not biased, this observation suggests that continental crust did not grow simply by addition of island arc material. Possibilities are that crust formed from fusion of island arcs and was later changed to more felsic composition by addition of material from the mantle or that the late Archean episode of major crustal growth did not involve processes similar to younger island arcs. Some crustal blocks might be changed in composition and thickness by such processes as underplating, interthrusting, necking and sub-crustal erosion. Specially designed experiments are suggested to determine this parameter so critical for understanding genesis of continental crust.     

First Byurakan Spectral Sky Survey. Stars of Late Spectral Types. XI. Zone -7° ≤ δ ≤ -3°

The eleventh list of faint late M and carbon type stars detected on the plates of the First Byurakan Spectral Survey in zone -7° -3° and covering about 1000 square degrees is presented. From 126 detected stars, 88 are newly discovered objects: they are 6 carbon stars, 8 carbon star candidates, and 74 M-type stars; among the latter 38 (26 PSC + 12 FSC) are unclassified IRAS sources, and one object is an unclassified ROSAT source. Distances to the 6 newly discovered early-type carbon stars are estimated. Equatorial coordinates, red magnitudes, and spectral classes determined from the Palomar E-charts are provided. The lack of optical counterparts on Palomar O and E maps for two detected late M-type stars indicates a large variability in brightnesses of these objects (amplitude not smaller than 7.0 magnitude).     

Impacts of primary deforestation upon limestone slopes in northern Vancouver Island, British Columbia

Effects of deforestation upon slopes in limestones and in volcanic rocks in the Benson River valley, northern Vancouver Island, have been investigated quantitatively. Postlogging soil erosion and vegetal regeneration success were assessed by measuring soil depth, percent bare rock and moss cover, and the numbers and diversity of trees, shrubs, and plants on 25 sampling sites, each containing ten measuring quadrats selected at random. Sixteen sites were on the Quatsino Formation, a well-karstified limestone, and nine on the Karmutsen Formation of basaltic lavas. Eight sites were of virgin forest, 16 were logged between 1970 and 1983, and one (on limestone) was logged in 1911. Both bedrock types were significantly affected by the cutting. There was greater loss of soil and an increase in bare rock on the limestones. Erosion was increased significantly by burning on the limestones but not on the volcanics. Within-group comparisons on the limestones determined that steeper slopes and harder burned areas suffered the most and are slowest to regenerate. Volume of timber on the 1911 site was 19 percent of that in similar uncut forest sites. It appears that complete recovery on the barren limestone slopes will require at least some centuries.     

The development of three-dimensional current system during a magnetospheric substorm

It is suggested that the pattern of three-dimensional substorm current circuit varies significantly even during the lifetime of a single substorm. This gives rise to quite complex time variations of the magnetic field at low latitude stations even for relatively isolated substorms. To verify this, three-dimensional current models with time dependent spatial variations are used to simulate one type of complex low-latitude “substorm signature”. It is shown that the utmost care should be exercised in determining different substorm phases on the basis of such a signature. The results indicate also that, in certain longitudes in the evening sector, one should expect distinct differences in characteristics between positive bays observed on the ground and at the synchronous distance.     

Soil bentonite wall protects foundation from thrust faulting: analyses and experiment

When seismic thrust faults emerge on the ground surface,they are particularly damaging to buildings,bridges and lifelines that lie on the rupture path.To protect a structure founded on a rigid raft,a thick diaphragm-type soil bentonite wall(SBW) is installed in front of and near the foundation,at sufficient depth to intercept the propagating fault rupture.Extensive numerical analyses,verified against reduced–scale(1 g) split box physical model tests,reveal that such a wall,thanks to its high deformability and low shear resistance,"absorbs" the compressive thrust of the fault and forces the rupture to deviate upwards along its length.As a consequence,the foundation is left essentially intact.The effectiveness of SBW is demonstrated to depend on the exact location of the emerging fault and the magnitude of the fault offset.When the latter is large,the unprotected foundation experiences intolerable rigid-body rotation even if the foundation structural distress is not substantial.