The solar particle event of July 16–19, 1966 and its possible association with a flare on the invisible solar hemisphere

An energetic solar proton and electron event was observed by particle detectors aboard Explorer 33 (AIMP-1) and OGO-3 during the period July 16–19, 1966. Optical and radio observations of the sun suggest that these particles were produced by a flare which may have occurred on July 16 near the central meridian of the invisible hemisphere. The active region to which the flare is assigned is known to have produced the energetic particle events of July 7 and 28, 1966. The propagation of the particles in the July 16–19 event over the 180° extent of solar longitude from the flare to the earth is discussed, and it is concluded that there must exist a means of rapidly distributing energetic particles over a large area of the sun. Several possible mechanisms are suggested.     

Differential survival of coral transplants on various substrates under elevated water temperatures

Closely related scleractinian coral species that exhibited similar survival patterns under relatively normal field conditions responded very differently to the occurrence of an environmental disturbance. The two species studied were Porites cylindrica and Porites rus which occur in the same reef zones in shallow reef flats. Transplants of both species were evenly distributed and attached to three different types of substrate: live coral colonies of P. cylindrica, dead coral colonies (also of P. cylindrica), and epoxy coated metal grids that were raised above the sandy substrate. With the onset of above-normal water temperatures due to the El Ni?o episode of 1998, P. cylindrica transplants immediately showed signs of bleaching stress and tissue necrosis, followed by algal overgrowth and mortality soon afterwards. In contrast, transplants of P. rus bleached more slowly and suffered less mortality, with a few actually showing signs of recovery at the end of the experimental period which covered a total of 14 weeks. These differences in responses could be attributed to properties of the symbiotic zooxanthellae, of the host coral tissue itself, or both. Over-all, survival was good on the metal grids (average of 35%), and on the live coral (average of 22%). It was poor on the dead coral (average of 6%). The metal grids as well as live coral tissue apparently provided a favorable substrate for the attached coral fragments, even for those of a different species. Under the conditions of this particular study, attachment of live coral fragments on already dead colonies for the purpose of increasing live coral cover on the reef did not yield favorable results. This is an area that requires further investigation.     

Assessing uncertainties in climate change impact analyses on the river flow regimes in the UK. Part 2: future climate

The first part of this paper demonstrated the existence of bias in GCM-derived precipitation series, downscaled using either a statistical technique (here the Statistical Downscaling Model) or dynamical method (here high resolution Regional Climate Model HadRM3) propagating to river flow estimated by a lumped hydrological model. This paper uses the same models and methods for a future time horizon (2080s) and analyses how significant these projected changes are compared to baseline natural variability in four British catchments. The UKCIP02 scenarios, which are widely used in the UK for climate change impact, are also considered. Results show that GCMs are the largest source of uncertainty in future flows. Uncertainties from downscaling techniques and emission scenarios are of similar magnitude, and generally smaller than GCM uncertainty. For catchments where hydrological modelling uncertainty is smaller than GCM variability for baseline flow, this uncertainty can be ignored for future projections, but might be significant otherwise. Predicted changes are not always significant compared to baseline variability, less than 50% of projections suggesting a significant change in monthly flow. Insignificant changes could occur due to climate variability alone and thus cannot be attributed to climate change, but are often ignored in climate change studies and could lead to misleading conclusions. Existing systematic bias in reproducing current climate does impact future projections and must, therefore, be considered when interpreting results. Changes in river flow variability, important for water management planning, can be easily assessed from simple resampling techniques applied to both baseline and future time horizons. Assessing future climate and its potential implication for river flows is a key challenge facing water resource planners. This two-part paper demonstrates that uncertainty due to hydrological and climate modelling must and can be accounted for to provide sound, scientifically-based advice to decision makers.     

Thallium isotopes as a potential tracer for the origin of cratonic eclogites

Cratonic eclogites are inferred to originate either from subducted ocean crust or mantle melts accreted onto the roots of continents. These models have different implications for the growth of continents, but it is currently difficult to determine the origin of individual eclogite suites.Upper ocean crust altered at low temperatures and marine sediments both display high thallium (Tl) concentrations and strongly fractionated Tl isotope signatures relative to the ambient upper mantle. In this study we carry out the first examination of the suitability of Tl isotopes as a tracer for an ocean-crust origin of cratonic eclogites. We have analysed the Tl isotope composition of clinopyroxene and garnet in six eclogites from the Kaalvallei and Bellsbank kimberlite pipes in South Africa. Minerals were pre-cleaned with an HCl leaching technique and the leachates display variably light Tl isotope ratios. These most likely reflect low-temperature hydrothermal alteration occurring after eruption of the kimberlite that carried the eclogites to the surface.The leached mineral pairs all display identical Tl isotope ratios, strongly suggesting that the source of the analysed Tl is identical for each mineral pair. It is, however, not possible to exclude the possibility that the analysed Tl originates from kimberlitic material that was not removed by the cleaning procedure.Only one of the six samples exhibits a Tl isotope composition different from ambient mantle. Assuming that the Tl isotope signatures indeed represent the eclogite minerals and not any form of contamination, the Tl isotope composition in this sample is consistent with containing a minor component (<3%) of ocean crust altered at low temperatures.Thallium isotopes may become one of the most sensitive indicators for the presence of low-T altered ocean crust because of the stark contrast in Tl concentration and isotopic composition between the mantle and altered ocean crust. In fact, no other chemical or isotopic tracer could have provided an indication that any of the samples studied here had a subduction origin. However, much work is still required before it becomes clear if Tl isotope measurements are a viable means to establish the origin of cratonic eclogites.     

Applying Geography Course Projects to Issues in City Resilience and Global Connectivity

Globalization would appear to be a subject that easily could be addressed in geography classrooms, yet this is not always the case. In terms of pedagogy, many geographers are concerned whether the field has been adequately engaging various components of this topic (e.g., connectivity, core-periphery), especially in terms of making the subject matter relevant to students. This article presents the results of a recent course project situated at the intersection of city-level resilience to hazards and connectivity with the global economy, utilizing SWOT analysis. The student projects demonstrated that this comparatively simple analytical tool was a useful means for exploring and integrating key topics in globalization and urban-economic geography, while also facilitating a problem-based learning environment.     

Spatial Pair-Copula Modeling of Grade in Ore Bodies: A Case Study

A real-world mining application of pair-copulas is presented to model the spatial distribution of metal grade in an ore body. Inaccurate estimation of metal grade in an ore reserve can lead to failure of a mining project. Conventional kriged models are the most commonly used models for estimating grade and other spatial variables. However, kriged models use the variogram or covariance function, which produces a single average value to represent the spatial dependence for a given distance. Kriged models also assume linear spatial dependence. In the application, spatial pair-copulas are used to appropriately model the non-linear spatial dependence present in the data. The spatial pair-copula model is adopted over other copula-based spatial models since it is better able to capture complex spatial dependence structures. The performance of the pair-copula model is shown to be favorable compared to a conventional lognormal kriged model.     

High-resolution optical and infrared spectroscopic observations of Cir X-1

We present new optical and infrared (IR) observations of Cir X-1 taken near apastron. Both sets of spectra show asymmetric emission lines. Archival optical observations show that an asymmetric H α emission line has been in evidence for the past 20 years, although the shape of the line has changed significantly. We present an eccentric ( e ∼0.7–0.9) low-mass binary model, where the system consists of a neutron star orbiting around a (sub)giant companion star of 3–5 M_⊙. We suggest that the broad components of the emission lines arise in a high-velocity, optically thick flow near the neutron star, while the narrow components of the optical and the IR lines arise near the companion star and a heated ejecta shell surrounding the binary respectively. In this model, the velocity of the narrow component reflects the space velocity of the binary; the implied radial velocity (+430 km s⁻¹ after correcting for Galactic rotation) is the highest velocity known for an X-ray binary.     

Deriving fragility functions from bilinearized capacity curves for earthquake scenario modelling using the conditional spectrum

The development of fragility curves to perform seismic scenario-based risk assessment requires a fully probabilistic procedure in order to account for uncertainties at each step of the computation. This is especially true when developing fragility curves conditional on an Intensity Measure that is directly available from a ground-motion prediction equation. In this study, we propose a new derivation method that uses realistic spectra instead of design spectral shapes or uniform hazard spectra and allows one to easily account for the features of the site-specific hazard that influences the fragility, without using non-linear dynamic analysis. The proposed method has been applied to typical school building types in the city of Basel (Switzerland) and the results have been compared to the standard practice in Europe. The results confirm that fragility curves are scenario dependent and are particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the earthquake scenario. The same background theory used for the derivation of the fragility curves has allowed an innovative method to be proposed for the conversion of fragility curves to a common IM (i.e. spectral acceleration or PGA). This conversion is the only way direct comparisons of fragility curves can be made and is useful when inter-period correlation cannot be used in scenario loss assessment. Moreover, such conversion is necessary to compare and verify newly developed curves against those from previous studies. Conversion to macroseismic intensity is also relevant for the comparison between mechanical-based and empirical fragility curves, in order to detect possible biases.     

Geology of the Pedwardine district,Herefordshire and Powys

The stratigraphy of the Pedwardine inlier of Precambrian (Longmyndian), Tremadoc, and what are now shown to be upper Llandovery rocks is described. The inlier is surrounded by Silurian rocks, including upper Llandovery (two very small areas), Wenlock, Ludlow and Přídolí (Red Downton Formation). The Ludlow rocks provide a distal record of the mass movement recorded more fully in the Wigmore Rolls area to the east. The Pedwardine area lies along the Church Stretton Fault Zone. Though ill-exposed, it shows evidence of the history of faulting, including thrusting. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.