Long-term variations in the geomagnetic activity level Part II: Ascending phases of sunspot cycles

Monthly averages of the Helsinki Ak-values have been reduced to the equivalent aa-indices to extend the aa-data set back to 1844. A periodicity of about five cycles was found for the correlation coefficient (r) between geomagnetic indices and sunspot numbers for the ascending phases of sunspot cycles 9 to 22, confirming previous findings based on a minor number of sunspot cycles. The result is useful to researchers in topics related to solar-terrestrial physics, particularly for the interpretation of long-term trends in geomagnetic activity during the past, and to forecast geomagnetic activity levels in the future.     

Gaseous and Particulate Oxidized and Reduced Nitrogen Species in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer in Scandinavia in Spring

Observations of the concentration of several nitrogen containing compounds at five rural Scandinavian sites during March–June 1993 are reported. Total nitrate (NO ₃ ^- + HNO₃) and total ammonium (NH ₄ ⁺ + NH₃) were measured by denuder and filter pack. In general the methods agree well. At all sites the particulate fraction dominated, with the largest fraction of NO ₃ ^- and the lowest of NH ₄ ⁺ at the sites which were closest to the emission sources. The fraction of NO ₃ ^- of total nitrate increased with increasing NO₂ concentrations, indicating that the nighttime conversion of NO₂ to NO ₃ ^- is an important route of formation for NO ₃ ^- . A positive correlation was found between HNO₃ and O₃ in June at all sites, while no correlation was found early in the spring. Model calculations were made with a lagrangian boundary layer photooxidant model for the whole period, and compared to the measured concentrations. The calculated ratio between mean observed and modelled daily maximum concentrations of ozone over the measurement period were within +/–10% at all sites. The models ability to describe the daily ozone maximum concentration was satisfactory with an average deviation of 19–22% from the observed concentrations. HNO₃ was underestimated by over 50% at all sites except the one closest to the emission sources. The correlation between modelled and observed concentrations was generally best for the sites with shortest transport distance from the sources of emission.     

The pace of Holocene vegetation change – testing for synchronous developments

Mid to high latitude forest ecosystems have undergone several major compositional changes during the Holocene. The temporal and spatial patterns of these vegetation changes hold potential information to their causes and triggers. Here we test the hypothesis that the timing of vegetation change was synchronous on a sub-continental scale, which implies a common trigger or a step-like change in climate parameters. Pollen diagrams from selected European regions were statistically divided into assemblage zones and the temporal pattern of the zone boundaries analysed. The results show that the temporal pattern of vegetation change was significantly different from random. Times of change cluster around 8.2, 4.8, 3.7, and 1.2 ka, while times of higher than average stability were found around 2.1 and 5.1 ka. Compositional changes linked to the expansion of Corylus avellana and Alnus glutinosa centre around 10.6 and 9.5 ka, respectively. A climatic trigger initiating these changes may have occurred 0.5 to 1 ka earlier, respectively. The synchronous expansion of C. avellana and A. glutinosa exemplify that dispersal is not necessarily followed by population expansion. The partly synchronous, partly random expansion of A. glutinosa in adjacent European regions exemplifies that sudden synchronous population expansions are not species specific traits but vary regionally.     

Phantom midge-based models for inferring past fish abundances

We sampled living and subfossil phantom midge (Diptera: Chaoboridae) larvae from surface sediments of 21 small lakes in Southern Sweden to examine the influence of fish and selected abiotic variables on the abundance and species composition of chaoborid assemblages. We expected total Chaoborus abundance to be inversely correlated with fish abundance and Chaoborus species most sensitive to fish predation to be found only in fishless lakes. We aimed to use the observed relationships to develop models to reconstruct past fish abundances from chaoborid remains and the abiotic environment. C. flavicans occurred in almost every lake, whereas subfossil C. obscuripes were found in the surface sediments of only one fishless lake. The density of living C. flavicans larvae correlated negatively with fish abundance, lake order and size. The concentration of C. flavicans subfossils was negatively associated with pH, lake size, water transparency and fish abundance. Regression models that included lake morphometry and landscape position as additional predictors of fish abundance performed better than models that used only Chaoborus predictors. The explained variance in fish abundance varied from 52 to 86%. Leave-one-out cross-validation indicated moderate performance of the two best models. These models explained 51 and 56% of the observed untransformed fish density and biomass, respectively. In addition, all Chaoborus models were unbiased in closely following the 1:1 reference line in plots of observed versus predicted values. These results are a promising step in developing midge-based paleolimnological reconstructions of past fish abundance, and the approach might be improved by including chironomid remains in the models.     

Simulations of dense planetary rings: IV. Spinning self-gravitating particles with size distribution

Previous self-gravitating simulations of dense planetary rings are extended to include particle spins. Both identical particles as well as systems with a modest range of particle sizes are examined. For a ring of identical particles, we find that mutual impact velocity is always close to the escape velocity of the particles, even if the total rms velocity dispersion of the system is much larger, due to collective motions associated to wakes induced by near-gravitational instability or by viscous overstability. As a result, the spin velocity (i.e., the product of the particle radius and the spin frequency) maintained by mutual impacts is also of the order of the escape velocity, provided that friction is significant. For the size distribution case, smaller particles have larger impact velocities and thus larger spin velocities, particularly in optically thick rings, since small particles move rather freely between wakes. Nevertheless, the maximum ratio of spin velocities between the smallest and largest particles, as well as the ratio for translational velocities, stays below about 5 regardless of the width of the size distribution. Particle spin state is one of the important factors affecting the temperature difference between the lit and unlit face of Saturn's rings. Our results suggest that, to good accuracy, the spin frequency is inversely proportional to the particle size. Therefore, the mixing ratio of fast rotators to slow rotators on the scale of the thermal relaxation time increases with the width of the particle size distribution. This will offer means to constrain the particle size distribution with the systematic thermal infrared observations carried by the Cassini probe.     

The Relationship Between Radiative Forcing and Temperature: What Do Statistical Analyses of the Instrumental Temperature Record Measure?

Comparing statistical estimates for the long-run temperature effect of doubled CO₂ with those generated by climate models begs the question, is the long-run temperature effect of doubled CO₂ that is estimated from the instrumental temperature record using statistical techniques consistent with the transient climate response, the equilibrium climate sensitivity, or the effective climate sensitivity. Here, we attempt to answer the question, what do statistical analyses of the observational record measure, by using these same statistical techniques to estimate the temperature effect of a doubling in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide from seventeen simulations run for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 2 (CMIP2). The results indicate that the temperature effect estimated by the statistical methodology is consistent with the transient climate response and that this consistency is relatively unaffected by sample size or the increase in radiative forcing in the sample.     

Holocene temperatures in Bohuslän, southwest Sweden: a quantitative reconstruction from fossil pollen data

Inferred mean annual temperatures (Tann) from a radiocarbon-dated fossil pollen stratigraphy obtained from Lake Trehörningen, southwest Sweden, provide evidence of climate variability during the Holocene in the boreal-nemoral zone of Sweden. The record indicates low early Holocene temperatures, followed by a rising trend and maximum temperature values from about 7000 to 4000 cal. yr BP. During the later part of the Holocene until present day, a cooling trend is reflected in the temperature record. At about 8200 cal. yr BP, temperatures temporarily drop, and at 8000 cal. yr BP the rising temperature trend is recovered. Inferred mid-Holocene temperatures are about 2.5-3°C higher than at present, and also higher than other pollen-inferred mid-Holocene temperatures of 1.5-2.5°C further to the north and east in Scandinavia. The reconstructed long-term climate pattern in Trehörningen has an overall consistency with temperature reconstructions from Scandinavia, suggesting a regional climate link for the Holocene variability in Sweden. Holocene climate trends in Trehörningen also show a remarkably similar pattern with the classic work on postglacial climate change by Sernander (1893, Sernander 1909), Andersson (1909) and von Post (1924).