Using Multiple Grids in Markov Mesh Facies Modeling

A multigrid Markov mesh model for geological facies is formulated by defining a hierarchy of nested grids and defining a Markov mesh model for each of these grids. The facies probabilities in the Markov mesh models are formulated as generalized linear models that combine functions of the grid values in a sequential neighborhood. The parameters in the generalized linear model for each grid are estimated from the training image. During simulation, the coarse patterns are first laid out, and by simulating increasingly finer grids we are able to recreate patterns at different scales. The method is applied to several tests cases and results are compared to the training image and the results of a commercially available snesim algorithm. In each test case, simulation results are compared qualitatively by visual inspection, and quantitatively by using volume fractions, and an upscaled permeability tensor. When compared to the training image, the method produces results that only have a few percent deviation from the values of the training image. When compared with the snesim algorithm the results in general have the same quality. The largest computational cost in the multigrid Markov mesh is the estimation of model parameters from the training image. This is of comparable CPU time to that of creating one snesim realization. The simulation of one realization is typically ten times faster than the estimation.     

A review of multiple natural hazards and risks in Germany

Although Germany is not among the most hazard-prone regions of the world, it does experience various natural hazards that have caused considerable economic and human losses in the past. Moreover, risk due to natural hazards is expected to increase in several regions of Germany if efficient risk management is not able to accommodate global changes. The most important natural hazards, in terms of past human and economic damage they caused, are storms, floods, extreme temperatures and earthquakes. They all show a pronounced spatial and temporal variability. In the present article, a review of these natural hazards, associated risks and their management in Germany is provided. This review reveals that event and risk analyses, as well as risk management, predominantly focus on one single hazard, generally not considering the cascading and conjoint effects in a full multi-hazard and risks approach. However, risk management would need integrated multi-risk analyses to identify, understand, quantify and compare different natural hazards and their impacts, as well as their interactions.     

Pilocarpus microphyllus seedling growth threatened by climate change: an ecophysiological approach

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The climate change endangers many species of the Amazon Forest. An example, in the endangered medicinal species Pilocarpus microphyllus (popularly known as...     

The Milky Way’s stellar disk

A suite of vast stellar surveys mapping the Milky Way, culminating in the Gaia mission, is revolutionizing the empirical information about the distribution and properties of stars in the Galactic stellar disk. We review and lay out what analysis and modeling machinery needs to be in place to test mechanism of disk galaxy evolution and to stringently constrain the Galactic gravitational potential, using such Galactic star-by-star measurements. We stress the crucial role of stellar survey selection functions in any such modeling; and we advocate the utility of viewing the Galactic stellar disk as made up of ‘mono-abundance populations’ (MAPs), both for dynamical modeling and for constraining the Milky Way’s evolutionary processes. We review recent work on the spatial and kinematical distribution of MAPs, and point out how further study of MAPs in the Gaia era should lead to a decisively clearer picture of the Milky Way’s dark-matter distribution and formation history.     

An (U‐Th)/He age for the shallow‐marine Wetumpka impact structure,Alabama, USA

Abstract– Single crystal (U‐Th)/He dating was applied to 24 apatite and 23 zircon grains from the Wetumpka impact structure, Alabama, USA. This small approximately 5–7.6 km impact crater was formed in a shallow marine environment, with no known preserved impact melt, thus offering a challenge to common geochronological techniques. A mean (U‐Th)/He apatite and zircon age of 84.4 ± 1.4 Ma (2σ) was obtained, which is within error of the previously estimated Late Cretaceous impact age of approximately 83.5 Ma. In addition, helium diffusion modeling of apatite and zircon grains during fireball/contact, shock metamorphism, and hydrothermal events was undertaken, to show the influence of these individual thermal processes on resetting (U‐Th)/He ages in the Wetumpka samples. This study has shown that the (U‐Th)/He geochronological technique has real potential for dating impact structures, especially smaller and eroded impact structures that lack impact melt lithologies.