Modelling innovation and the macroeconomics of low-carbon transitions: theory,perspectives and practical use

Energy and climate policies may have significant economy-wide impacts, which are regularly assessed based on quantitative energy-environment-economy models. These tend to vary in their conclusions on the scale and direction of the likely macroeconomic impacts of a low-carbon transition. This paper traces the characteristic discrepancies in models’ outcomes to their origins in different macro-economic theories, most importantly their treatment of technological innovation and finance. We comprehensively analyse the relevant branches of macro-innovation theory and group them into two classes: ‘Equilibrium’ and ‘Non-equilibrium’. While both approaches are rigorous and self-consistent, they frequently yield opposite conclusions for the economic impacts of low-carbon policies. We show that model outcomes are mainly determined by their representations of monetary and finance dimensions, and their interactions with investment, innovation and technological change. Improving these in all modelling approaches is crucial for strengthening the evidence base for policy making and gaining a more consistent picture of the macroeconomic impacts of achieving emissions reductions objectives. The paper contributes towards the ongoing effort of enhancing the transparency and understanding of sophisticated model mechanisms applied to energy and climate policy analysis. It helps tackle the overall ‘black box’ critique, much-cited in policy circles and elsewhere.

Key policy insights

• Quantitative models commissioned by policy-makers to assess the macroeconomic impacts of climate policy generate contradictory outcomes and interpretations.

• The source of the differences in model outcomes originates primarily from assumptions on the workings of the financial sector and the nature of money, and of how these interact with processes of low-carbon energy innovation and technological change.

• Representations of innovation and technological change are incomplete in energy-economy-environment models, leading to limitations in the assessment of the impacts of climate-related policies.

• All modelling studies should state clearly their underpinning theoretical school and their treatment of finance and innovation.

• A strong recommendation is given for modellers of energy-economy systems to improve their representations of money and finance.

     

Quaternary Aquifer of the North China Plain—assessing and achieving groundwater resource sustainability

The Quaternary Aquifer of the North China Plain is one of the worlds largest aquifer systems and supports an enormous exploitation of groundwater, which has reaped large socio-economic benefits in terms of grain production, farming employment and rural poverty alleviation, together with urban and industrial water-supply provision. Both population and economic activity have grown markedly in the past 25 years. Much of this has been heavily dependent upon groundwater resource development, which has encountered increasing difficulties in recent years primarily as a result of aquifer depletion and related phenomena. This paper focuses upon the hydrogeologic and socio-economic diagnosis of these groundwater resource issues, and identifies strategies to improve groundwater resource sustainability.

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Resumen El acuífero cuaternario de la Llanura Septentrional de China es uno de los mayores sistemas acuíferos del mundo y soporta una enorme explotación de su agua subterránea, las cuales han originado grandes beneficios socioeconómicos en términos de producción de grano, empleo en agricultura y mitigación de la pobreza rural, además de proveer agua para abastecimiento urbano e industria. Tanto la población como la actividad económica han crecido mucho en los últimos 25 años con una gran dependencia de las aguas subterráneas, que ha encontrado dificultades recientes por la explotación intensiva del acuífero y fenómenos relacionados. Este artículo se centra en la diagnosis hidrogeológica y socioeconómica de los problemas relacionados con las aguas subterráneas e identifica estrategias para mejorar la sustentabilidad de este recurco.

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Résumé Laquifère Quaternaire de la Plaine du Nord de la Chine est lun des plus grands systèmes aquifères du monde; il permet une exploitation énorme deau souterraine, qui a permis des très importants bénéfices socio-économiques en terme de production de céréales, demplois ruraux et de réduction de la pauvreté rurale, en même temps que lapprovisionnement en eau potable et pour lindustrie. La population comme lactivité économique ont remarquablement augmenté au cours de ces 25 dernières années. Elles ont été sous la forte dépendance du développement de la ressource en eau souterraine, qui a rencontré des difficultés croissantes ces dernières années, du fait du rabattement de laquifère et des phénomènes associés. Cet article est consacré aux diagnostiques hydrogéologique et socio-économique des retombées de cette ressource en eau souterraine; il identifie les stratégies pour améliorer la pérennité des ressources en eau souterraine.

     

Relations between stellar mass and electron temperature-based metallicity for star-forming galaxies in a wide mass range

We select 947 star-forming galaxies from SDSS-DR7 with [O III]λ4363emission lines detected at a signal-to-noise ratio larger than 5σ. Their electron temperatures and direct oxygen abundances are then determined. We compare the results from different methods. t2, the electron temperature in the low ionization region, estimated from t3, that in the high ionization region, is compared using three analysis relations between t2- t3. These show obvious differences, which result in some different ionic oxygen abundances. The results of t3, t2, O++/H+and O+/H+derived by using methods from IRAF and literature are also compared. The ionic abundances O++/H+are higher than O+/H+for most cases. The different oxygen abundances derived from Teand the strong-line ratios show a clear discrepancy, which is more obvious following increasing stellar mass and strong-line ratio R23. The sample of galaxies from SDSS with detected [O III]λ4363 have lower metallicites and higher star formation rates, so they may not be typical representatives of the whole population of galaxies. Adopting data objects from Andrews Martini, Liang et al. and Lee et al. data, we derive new relations of stellar mass and metallicity for star-forming galaxies in a much wider stellar mass range: from 106 M to 1011 M.     

UVB solar radiation climatology for Mexico

The measurement of solar B band Ultraviolet radiation (UVB) should be considered a priority in Mexico due to implications on public health throughout the country (total population, 108 million), but this is not carried out at present. Installed sensors cover only 0.12% of the country. However, there are alternative methods for estimating UVB radiation to overcome the lack of surface data. The most successful of these are based on the use of satellites for environmental monitoring. In the present work, UVB maps are constructed for the entire country using a single, daily satellite measurement of UVB at solar noon from 1978-2003. Satellite-derived values are compared with the ground measurements by a surface station located in Mexico City in order to validate the former. Wavelet spectrum analysis is employed to this end. A close correlation is observed between the two sets of data. Moreover, there is qualitative correspondence between the spatial distribution of the satellite-derived data and the surface topography. The difference resulting throughout the period mentioned is <2% of the average annual cumulative energy.     

Influence of slow active faults in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment: the northwestern margin of the València trough

Areas of low strain rate are typically characterized by low to moderate seismicity. The earthquake catalogs for these regions do not usually include large earthquakes because of their long recurrence periods. In cases where the recurrence period of large earthquakes is much longer than the catalog time span, probabilistic seismic hazard is underestimated. The information provided by geological and paleo-seismological studies can potentially improve seismic hazard estimation through renewal models, which assume characteristic earthquakes. In this work, we compare the differences produced when active faults in the northwestern margin of the València trough are introduced in hazard analysis. The differences between the models demonstrate that the introduction of faults in zones characterized by low seismic activity can give rise to significant changes in the hazard values and location. The earthquake and fault seismic parameters (recurrence interval, segmentation or fault length that controls the maximum magnitude earthquake and time elapsed since the last event or T_e) were studied to ascertain their effect on the final hazard results. The most critical parameter is the recurrence interval, where shorter recurrences produce higher hazard values. The next most important parameter is the fault segmentation. Higher hazard values are obtained when the fault has segments capable of producing big earthquakes. Finally, the least critical parameter is the time elapsed since the last event (T_e), when longer T_e produces higher hazard values.     

A Comparative Quantitative Study of an Omani Soil Using X-Ray Diffraction Technique

Two methods for the quantification of clay minerals using X-ray diffraction techniques: the Constant Mineral Standards Method and the Constant Clay Method were applied to soil samples from Al-Khod (Northern Oman). The first method was based on the addition of different concentrations of clay to constant mineral standards while the latter was based on the additions of known internal standards to the clay sample. The clay investigated in this study contained montmorillonite, palygorskite, illite and kaolinite. The areas of the reflection peaks were found to relate linearly with additions of different proportions of clay or mineral standards. Using the two methods, the concentrations of the different components and their experimental errors were determined. From the errors and self consistency of the results obtained, and the practicality of sample preparation, it is proposed to use the Constant Mineral Standards Method.     

Differentiation of clay resources on a limestone plain: The analysis of clay utilization during the Maya Formative at K'axob Belize

Differentiating clay resources in a uniform limestone plain, such as occurs in northern Belize, offers special challenges for the archaeologist. Combining data from soil mapping with petrographic and neutron activation analysis provides a mechanism for distinguishing possible resource areas. This study employed each of these differing avenues of analysis to determine possible clay resource areas used during the Maya Formative in northern Belize Central America. The results indicate that clay usage changed significantly from the Middle Formative period to the end of Late Formative period. These changes suggest a move to increased localized production and resource exploitation by the end of the period. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.