Coherence among climate signals, precipitation, and groundwater

Climate signals may affect groundwater level at different time scales in different geographical regions, and those patterns or time scales can be estimated using coherence analysis. This study shows that the synthesis effort required to search for patterns at the physical geography scale is possible, and this approach should be applicable in other regions of the world. The relations between climate signals, Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Pattern (SOI, PDO, NAO, and NP), precipitation, and groundwater level in three geographical areas of Wisconsin are examined using a three-tiered coherence analysis. In the high frequency band (<4(-1) cycles/year), there is a significant coherence between four climate signals and groundwater level in all three areas. In the low frequency band (>8(-1) to ≤23(-1) cycles/year), we found significant coherence between the SOI and NP signals and groundwater level in the forested area, characterized by shallow wells constructed in sand and gravel aquifers. In the high frequency band, there is significant coherence between the four climate signals and precipitation in all three areas. In the low frequency band, the four climate signals have effect on precipitation in the agricultural area, and SOI and NP have effect on precipitation in the forested and driftless areas. Precipitation affects groundwater level in all three areas, and in high, low and intermediate frequency bands. In the agricultural area, deeper aquifers and a more complex hydrostratigraphy and land use dilute the effect of precipitation on groundwater level for interdecadal frequencies.     

Evaluation of correlations between precipitation, groundwater fluctuations, and lake level fluctuations using spectral methods (Wisconsin, USA)

Spectral methods and 2 years of daily data were used to estimate the phase lag between precipitation and groundwater-level response, and two decades of quarterly data were used to analyze the interaction between precipitation, lake levels and groundwater in the Trout Lake watershed located in Vilas County, Wisconsin, USA. The phase-lag function between precipitation and groundwater response is used to estimate recharge travel time. The recharge travel time and precipitation–groundwater–lake interactions have been traditionally studied using time-domain methods such as physically-based modeling. In this article, the innovative and efficient use of spectral methods is demonstrated to uncover the time scales that are significant in those interactions and estimate the recharge travel time, which is extracted from the underlying daily time series data. The results consistently show that precipitation leads groundwater-level response by up to 5 days in all cases. The effects of precipitation on lake and groundwater levels display strong similarities. Both the precipitation–lake level and the precipitation–groundwater level coherency functions show significant peaks at interannual and seasonal frequencies. The groundwater level–lake level coherency function shows a significant, broad peak at interannual frequencies, and no significant peak at seasonal frequencies, demonstrating the predominance of annual and lower frequencies in groundwater–lake interaction.     

Hydrogeochemical Analysis of Processes Through Modeling of Seawater Intrusion Impacts in Biscayne Aquifer Water Quality,USA

Hydrogeochemical processes that accompany seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers can alter the resulting water quality and are important ingredients in coastal aquifer management. The presence of dissolution–precipitation reactions and ion exchange in the mixing zone of the Biscayne aquifer (FL, USA) are suggested based on changes in major ion concentrations and mineral saturation indices (SI). Major ion concentrations from 11 groundwater samples are compared with theoretical mixing between freshwater and seawater. PHREEQC code was used to calculate saturation indices of the samples with respect to common phases in the Biscayne aquifer. High Ca²⁺ and HCO₃ ^? content of the samples is typical of waters in contact with carbonate aquifers. Water quality of the samples is mainly attributed to mixing and precipitation–dissolution reactions with calcite and dolomite. The samples were saturated with calcite (SI ~ 0) and undersaturated for dolomite (SI < 0), while a few samples showed dolomite saturation. Because gypsum and halite SI could be predicted by theoretical mixing, reactions with those minerals, if present, are thought to be insignificant. In the active intrusion areas, cation exchange also appears to modify water quality leading to excess Ca²⁺, but depleted Na⁺, Mg²⁺ and K⁺ concentrations. On the other hand, samples from previous intrusion areas plotted very close to the theoretical mixing line and approached equilibrium with the seawater.     

What do biphasic flow experiments reveal on the variability of exposure on alluvial fans and which implications for risk assessment result from this?

Sudden avulsions, unexpected channel migrations and backfilling phenomena are autogenic phenomena that can considerably change the propagation patterns of sediment-laden flows on alluvial fans. Once the initial and boundary conditions of the hazard scenario with a given return period are determined, the assessment of the associated exposed areas is based on one numerical, essentially deterministic, process simulation which may not adequately capture the underlying process variability. We generated sediment-laden flows on an experimental alluvial fan by following a “similarity-of-process concept”. Specifically, we considered a convexly shaped alluvial fan model layout featuring a curved guiding channel. As loading conditions, we defined a reference, an increased and a reduced level for the released water volume and the predisposed solid fraction, respectively. Further, we imposed two different stream power regimes and accomplished, for each factor combination, eight experimental runs. The associated exposure areas were recorded by video and mapped in a GIS. We then analysed exposure data and determined exposure probability maps superposing the footprints of the eight repetitions associated with each experimental loading condition. The patterns of exposure referred to the specific loading conditions showed a noticeable variability related to the main effects of the total event volume, the solid fraction, the interactions between them, and the imposed stream power in the feeding channel. Our research suggests that adopting a probabilistic notion of exposure in risk assessment and mitigation is advisable. Further, a major challenge consists in adapting numerical codes to better reflect the stochastics of process propagation for more reliable flood hazard assessments.

     

Climate warming, water storage, and Chinook salmon in California’s Sacramento Valley

The Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) spawns and rears in the cold, freshwater rivers and tributaries of California’s Central Valley, with four separate seasonal runs including fall and late-fall runs, a winter run, and a spring run. Dams and reservoirs have blocked access to most of the Chinook’s ancestral spawning areas in the upper reaches and tributaries. Consequently, the fish rely on the mainstem of the Sacramento River for spawning habitat. Future climatic warming could lead to alterations of the river’s temperature regime, which could further reduce the already fragmented Chinook habitat. Specifically, increased water temperatures could result in spawning and rearing temperature exceedences, thereby jeopardizing productivity, particularly in drought years. Paradoxically, water management plays a key role in potential adaptation options by maintaining spawning and rearing habitat now and in the future, as reservoirs such as Shasta provide a cold water supply that will be increasingly needed to counter the effects of climate change. Results suggest that the available cold pool behind Shasta could be maintained throughout the summer assuming median projections of mid-21st century warming of 2°C, but the maintenance of the cold pool with warming on the order of 4°C could be very challenging. The winter and spring runs are shown to be most at risk because of the timing of their reproduction.     

Climate change and population history in the Pacific Lowlands of Southern Mesoamerica

Core MAN015 from Pacific coastal Guatemala contains sediments accumulated in a mangrove setting over the past 6500 yr. Chemical, pollen, and phytolith data, which indicate conditions of estuarine deposition and terrigenous inputs from adjacent dry land, document Holocene climate variability that parallels the Maya lowlands and other New World tropical locations. Human population history in this region may be driven partly by climate variation: sedentary human populations spread rapidly through the estuarine zone of the lower coast during a dry and variable 4th millennium B.P. Population growth and cultural florescence during a long, relatively moist period (2800–1200 B.P.) ended around 1200 B.P., a drying event that coincided with the Classic Maya collapse.     

Kilometer-wave type III burst: Harmonic emission revealed by direction and time of arrival

A type III solar burst was observed at seven frequencies between 3.5 MHz and 80 kHz by the Michigan experiment aboard the IMP-6 satellite. From the data we can determine burst direction-of-arrival as well as time-of-arrival. We predict these quantities using simple models whose parameters we vary to obtain a good fit to the observations. We find that between 3.5 MHz and 230 kHz the observed radiation was emitted at the fundamental of the local plasma frequency while below 230 kHz it was emitted at the second harmonic. The exciter particles that produced the burst onset and burst peak have velocities of 0.27 and 0.12, respectively, in units of the velocity of light.