Coherence among climate signals, precipitation, and groundwater

Climate signals may affect groundwater level at different time scales in different geographical regions, and those patterns or time scales can be estimated using coherence analysis. This study shows that the synthesis effort required to search for patterns at the physical geography scale is possible, and this approach should be applicable in other regions of the world. The relations between climate signals, Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Pattern (SOI, PDO, NAO, and NP), precipitation, and groundwater level in three geographical areas of Wisconsin are examined using a three-tiered coherence analysis. In the high frequency band (<4(-1) cycles/year), there is a significant coherence between four climate signals and groundwater level in all three areas. In the low frequency band (>8(-1) to ≤23(-1) cycles/year), we found significant coherence between the SOI and NP signals and groundwater level in the forested area, characterized by shallow wells constructed in sand and gravel aquifers. In the high frequency band, there is significant coherence between the four climate signals and precipitation in all three areas. In the low frequency band, the four climate signals have effect on precipitation in the agricultural area, and SOI and NP have effect on precipitation in the forested and driftless areas. Precipitation affects groundwater level in all three areas, and in high, low and intermediate frequency bands. In the agricultural area, deeper aquifers and a more complex hydrostratigraphy and land use dilute the effect of precipitation on groundwater level for interdecadal frequencies.     

Pilot study experiments sourcing quartzite,Gunnison Basin,Colorado

This paper reports the results of pilot‐study efforts to develop methods to profile quartzite, a rock type to which geochemical and other sourcing techniques have only rarely been applied. The long‐term goal of the research is to fingerprint sources of quartzite in the Gunnison Basin, southwest Colorado, used by Paleoindian people ca. 11,500–8,000 years ago to make stone tools. Success would facilitate reconstruction of Paleoindian mobility in the Southern Rocky Mountains and potentially anywhere prehistoric people used quartzite. The goals of this paper are more modest: to demonstrate that a small‐scale exploration of sourcing techniques suggests reason for optimism that quartzites may be amenable to source discrimination. For the same twenty Gunnison Basin quartzite samples, this study evaluated petrography, ultraviolet fluorescence (UVF), wavelength dispersive X‐ray fluorescence (WD‐XRF), instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA), and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry—both acid‐digestion (AD‐ICP‐MS) and laser ablation (LA‐ICP‐MS)—as means to differentiate among the specimens and the sources they represent. Although more testing is needed to verify and refine our results, the study suggests there is potential for petrography, INAA, and both versions of ICP‐MS to discriminate among quartzites from different source localities in the Gunnison Basin. The greatest potential for discriminating among different sources of quartzite in the Gunnison Basin may lie in a methodology combining petrographic analysis and LA‐ICPMS. Future testing is required to evaluate this two‐fold approach. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Using Ground‐Penetrating Radar to Examine Spatial Organization at the Late Classic Maya Site of El Baúl,Cotzumalhuapa, Guatemala

The Cotzumalhuapa Nuclear Zone (CNZ) is a Late Classic site consisting of three large architectural compounds linked by a series of stone‐paved causeways and bridges. The majority of the site, however, lies beneath layers of recent tephra, leaving the structure of this settlement largely unknown. This study uses ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) to map the subsurface near El Baúl, one of the main compounds, in order to examine the spatial relationship among urban architectural features. Excavation within areas of the GPR survey provides fine‐grain detail of one major architectural feature in the region, the Gavarrete Causeway. The complimentary nature of these data sets characterizes the architectural organization of the settlement at two scales. Spatial patterning between large‐scale architectural features supports the hypothesis that the CNZ represents an integrated urban center with evidence of planned community organization characteristic of other Late Classic period centers across Mesoamerica.     

GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.     

A quasi-geostrophic diagnosis of the zonal flow associated with cut-off lows over South Africa and surrounding oceans

Climate Dynamics - The zonal flow associated with cut-off lows (COLs) comprises two jet streaks of different spatial extents. The smaller scale jet streak, located north of the COLs, forms as a...     

Large-scale environmental influences on the benthic macroinfauna of the southern Gulf of Mexico

The influence of large-scale natural disturbance from winter storms (‘northers’) and river runoff on the macrobenthic community structure of the southern Gulf of Mexico was investigated in both carbonate and transitional carbonate–terrigenous sedimentary environments. Samples of the infauna were obtained in three seasons from 13 stations from two 250 km transects along 80–170 and 20–50 m water depth. Samples after the northers season had the lowest total number of families and individuals, 114 and 2940, respectively, compared to the dry and rainy seasons with 129 and 132 families and 11580 and 15266 individuals, respectively. Spatial patterns of macroinfauna composition varied across and along the shelf as a response to sedimentary environments and depth. Coarser sediments from the carbonate area harboured the highest mean densities per station with 500–24,000 individuals m⁻² and 108–122 families in total, compared to the transitional sediment with 500–8200 individuals m⁻² and 56–74 families across the three seasons. Univariate and multivariate statistical techniques demonstrated that low densities and number of taxa were associated with winter storms, but storm influence was dependent on depth and sediment type. Multiple linear regression analysis and BIOENV analysis indicated that sediment mean grain size, percentage of clay and organic matter best explained the macroinfauna spatial patterns, although BIOENV indicated that depth has an overriding role. An increase in densities of opportunistic taxa (numerous polychaetes of small sizes) was observed four months after the ‘northers’ and this was more evident in the area of carbonate sediment. Additionally a combined disturbance from northers and river runoff is suspected to be responsible for a naturally impoverished macroinfauna community in the transitional sedimentary environment.