Using micro-catchment experiments for multi-local scale modelling of nature-based solutions

The Q-natural flood management project has co-developed with the Environment Agency 18 monitored micro-catchments (~1 km²) in Cumbria, UK installing calibrated flumes aimed at quantifying the potential shift in observed flows resulting from a range of nature-based-solutions installed by local organizations. The small-scale reduces the influence of variability characterizing larger catchments that would otherwise mask any such shifts, which we attempt to relate to a shift in model parameters. This paper demonstrates an approach to applying donor-parameter-shifts obtained from modelling two of the paired micro-catchments to a much larger scale, in order to understand the potential for improved distributed modelling of nature-based solutions in the form of additional tree-planting. The models include a rainfall-runoff model, Dynamic Topmodel, and a 2D hydrodynamic model, JFlow, permitting analysis of changes in hillslope processes and channel hydrodynamics resulting from a range of distributed measures designed to emulate natural hydrological processes that evaporate, store or infiltrate flows. We report on attempts to detect shift in hydrological response using one of the paired-micro-catchment moorland versus forestry sites in Lorton using Dynamic Topmodel. A donor-parameter-shift approach is used in a hypothetical experiment to represent new woodland in a much larger catchment, although testing all combinations of spatial planting strategies, responses to multiple-extremes, failure-modes and changes to synchronization becomes intractable to support good decision making. We argue that the problem can be re-framed to use donor-parameter-shifts at multi-local-scale catchments above communities known to be at risk, commensurate with most of the evidence of NbS impacts being effective at the small scale (ca. 10 km²). This might lead to more effective modelling to help catchment managers prioritize those communities-at-risk where there is more evidence that NbS might be effective.     

Effects of the closure of a major sewage outfall on sublittoral, soft sediment benthic communities

The present study examines the benthos within western inner Swansea Bay (Wales, UK), for the period before, during and immediately after the cessation of a major, sewage discharge from Mumbles Head. There have been significant improvements in seawater quality and changes in the species composition of the benthic communities following the cessation of the sewage discharge. There has been an increase in the diversity of deposit feeders, especially the amphipods, and a decrease in the diversity of the filter feeders, especially the polychaetes. Changes are not attributable either to sediment organic matter content or to gross changes in sediment type, but are related to the significant reduction in suspended particulate organic material and sewage contaminants discharged to the Bay. A recovery model has been proposed to describe how soft sediment benthic communities in a shallow, sublittoral, high tidal energy environment respond to the abrupt cessation of a major sewage discharge.     

Elevation adjustments of paired natural levees during flooding of the Saskatchewan River

Natural levees control the exchange of water between an alluvial channel and its floodplain, but little is known about the spatial distribution and evolution of levee heights. The summer 2005 flood of the Saskatchewan River (Cumberland Marshes, east‐central Saskatchewan) inundated large areas of floodplain for up to seven weeks, forming prominent new deposits on natural levees along main‐stem channels. Measurements of flood‐deposit thickness and crest heights of 61 levee pairs show that the thickest deposits occur on the lower pre‐flood levee in 80% of the sites, though no clear relationship exists between deposit thickness and magnitude of height difference. Only 16% of the pairs displayed thicker deposits on the higher levee, half of which occurred at sites where relatively clear floodbasin waters re‐entered turbid channels during general flooding. Difference in crest elevation (ΔE) between paired levees is approximately log‐normally distributed, both before and after the flood, though with different mean values. Supplemental observations from tank experiments indicate that during near‐bankfull flows, temporally and spatially variable deposition and erosion occur on levees due to backwater effects associated with nearby channel bars and irregular rises of the channel bed forced by channel extension. During floods, preferential deposition in lows tends to even out crest heights. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional estimation of base recharge to ground water using water balance and a base-flow index

Naturally occurring long-term mean annual base recharge to ground water in Nebraska was estimated with the help of a water-balance approach and an objective automated technique for base-flow separation involving minimal parameter-optimization requirements. Base recharge is equal to total recharge minus the amount of evapotranspiration coming directly from ground water. The estimation of evapotranspiration in the water-balance equation avoids the need to specify a contributing drainage area for ground water, which in certain cases may be considerably different from the drainage area for surface runoff. Evapotranspiration was calculated by the WREVAP model at the Solar and Meteorological Surface Observation Network (SAMSON) sites. Long-term mean annual base recharge was derived by determining the product of estimated long-term mean annual runoff (the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration) and the base-flow index (BFI). The BFI was calculated from discharge data obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey's gauging stations in Nebraska. Mapping was achieved by using geographic information systems (GIS) and geostatistics. This approach is best suited for regional-scale applications. It does not require complex hydrogeologic modeling nor detailed knowledge of soil characteristics, vegetation cover, or land-use practices. Long-term mean annual base recharge rates in excess of 110 mm/year resulted in the extreme eastern part of Nebraska. The western portion of the state expressed rates of only 15 to 20 mm annually, while the Sandhills region of north-central Nebraska was estimated to receive twice as much base recharge (40 to 50 mm/year) as areas south of it.     

Rancher and farmer perceptions of climate change in Nevada, USA

Farming and ranching communities in arid lands are vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. We surveyed Nevada ranchers and farmers (n?=?481) during 2009–2010 to assess climate change related knowledge, assumptions, and perceptions. The large majority of this group agreed that we are in a period of climate change; however, only 29 % of them believed that human activity is playing a significant role. Female ranchers and farmers hold more scientifically accurate knowledge about climate change than do their male counterparts, regardless of Democratic or Republican affiliation. Partisan affiliation, political ideology, and gender have strong impacts on climate change knowledge and perceptions. Republican, conservative and male rural residents view climate change as a low national priority, less important to themselves, and less harmful to their communities. Female ranchers and farmers are more concerned about the negative impacts of climate change. We found that only 4 % of our subjects (n?=?299) attribute local environment changes to climate change or global warming. The knowledge gained from this study will help researchers and natural resource managers understand how to best communicate about climate change with rural communities, and support policy makers in identifying potentially effective adaptation and mitigation policies and outreach programs.     

Upscaling in Global Change Research

This paper reviews the problems of upscaling that arise, in the context of global change research, in a wide variety of disciplines in the physical and social sciences. Upscaling is taken to mean the process of extrapolating from the site-specific scale at which observations are usually made or at which theoretical relationships apply, to the smallest scale that is resolved in global-scale models. Upscaling is pervasive in global change research; although in some cases it is done implicitly. A number of conceptually distinct, fundamental causes of upscaling problems are identified and are used to classify the upscaling problems that have been encountered in different disciplines. A variety of solutions to the upscaling problems have been developed in different disciplines, and these are compared here. Improper upscaling can dramatically after model simulation results in some cases. A consideration of scaling problems across diverse disciplines reveals a number of interesting conceptual similarities among disciplines whose practitioners might otherwise not communicate with each other. Upscaling raises a number of important questions concerning predictability and reliability in global change research, which are discussed here. There is a clear need for more research into the circumstances in which simple upscaling is not appropriate, and to develop or refine techniques for upscaling.     

Heat waves in the United States: definitions, patterns and trends

High temperatures and heat waves are related but not synonymous concepts. Heat waves, generally understood to be acute periods of extreme warmth, are relevant to a wide range of stakeholders because of the impacts that these events have on human health and activities and on natural environments. Perhaps because of the diversity of communities engaged in heat wave monitoring and research, there is no single, standard definition of a heat wave. Experts differ in which threshold values (absolute versus relative), duration and ancillary variables to incorporate into heat wave definitions. While there is value in this diversity of perspectives, the lack of a unified index can cause confusion when discussing patterns, trends, and impacts. Here, we use data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System to examine patterns and trends in 15 previously published heat wave indices for the period 1979–2011 across the Continental United States. Over this period the Southeast region saw the highest number of heat wave days for the majority of indices considered. Positive trends (increases in number of heat wave days per year) were greatest in the Southeast and Great Plains regions, where more than 12 % of the land area experienced significant increases in the number of heat wave days per year for the majority of heat wave indices. Significant negative trends were relatively rare, but were found in portions of the Southwest, Northwest, and Great Plains.