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101.
Palaeoflood hydraulic modelling is essential for quantifying ‘millennial flood’ events not covered in the instrumental record. Palaeoflood modelling research has largely focused on one-dimensional analysis for geomorphologically stable fluvial settings because two-dimensional analysis for dynamic alluvial settings is time consuming and requires a detailed representation of the past landscape. In this study, we make the step to spatially continuous palaeoflood modelling for a large and dynamic lowland area. We applied advanced hydraulic model simulations (1D–2D coupled set-up in HEC-RAS with 950 channel sections and 108 × 103 floodplain grid cells) to quantify the extent and magnitude of past floods in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta. As input, we used a high-resolution terrain reconstruction (palaeo-DEM) of the area in early mediaeval times, complemented with hydraulic roughness values. After conducting a series of model runs with increasing discharge magnitudes at the upstream boundary, we compared the simulated flood water levels with an inventory of exceeded and non-exceeded elevations extracted from various geological, archaeological and historical sources. This comparison demonstrated a Lower Rhine millennial flood magnitude of approximately 14,000 m3/s for the Late Holocene period before late mediaeval times. This value exceeds the largest measured discharges in the instrumental record, but not the design discharges currently accounted for in flood risk management. 相似文献
102.
Application of the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) method to the Caspian Sea conflict 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Hojjat Mianabadi Majid Sheikhmohammady Erik Mostert Nick Van de Giesen 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(6):1359-1372
This study proposes a promising allocation mechanism of the Caspian Sea natural resources, which are presently shared among five countries. To date, these nations have been unable to reach an allocation agreement. We apply a methodology to propose the most appropriate solution under different risk attitudes of the states. This research is different from other studies regarding the Caspian Sea negotiations in that it employs risk-based fuzzy multi attribute decision making methods for simulating the risk attitudes or optimism/pessimism degrees of the decision makers. The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) approach, which considers the optimism/pessimism degree quantitatively, is used to take into account the effects of different risk attitudes of the negotiators on the final outcome. We demonstrate how one could obtain a range of alternatives under different multi attribute and risk attitudes. The induced OWA (IOWA) method is also used to determine the relative power of these states bordering the Caspian Sea by considering several attributes, including different risk attitudes of agents. Results indicate that taking into account the risk attitude (prone, neutral, averse) of the states can affect the overall ranking of the proposed solutions. The findings from this study may facilitate negotiation regarding the most preferred allocation mechanism for the Caspian Sea. 相似文献
103.
William D. Robertson James W. Roy Susan J. Brown Dale R. Van Stempvoort Greg Bickerton 《Ground water》2014,52(1):63-70
Monitoring of a well‐defined septic system groundwater plume and groundwater discharging to two urban streams located in southern Ontario, Canada, provided evidence of natural attenuation of background low level (ng/L) perchlorate (ClO4?) under denitrifying conditions in the field. The septic system site at Long Point contains ClO4? from a mix of waste water, atmospheric deposition, and periodic use of fireworks, while the nitrate plume indicates active denitrification. Plume nitrate (NO3?‐N) concentrations of up to 103 mg/L declined with depth and downgradient of the tile bed due to denitrification and anammox activity, and the plume was almost completely denitrified beyond 35 m from the tile bed. The ClO4? natural attenuation occurs at the site only when NO3?‐N concentrations are <0.3 mg/L, after which ClO4? concentrations decline abruptly from 187 ± 202 to 11 ± 15 ng/L. A similar pattern between NO3?‐N and ClO4? was found in groundwater discharging to the two urban streams. These findings suggest that natural attenuation (i.e., biodegradation) of ClO4? may be commonplace in denitrified aquifers with appropriate electron donors present, and thus, should be considered as a remediation option for ClO4? contaminated groundwater. 相似文献
104.
The coastal zones are facing the prospect of changing storm surge statistics due to anthropogenic climate change. In the present study, we examine these prospects for the North Sea based on numerical modelling. The main tool is the barotropic tide-surge model TRIMGEO (Tidal Residual and Intertidal Mudflat Model) to derive storm surge climate and extremes from atmospheric conditions. The analysis is carried out by using an ensemble of four 30-year atmospheric regional simulations under present-day and possible future-enhanced greenhouse gas conditions. The atmospheric regional simulations were prepared within the EU project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). The research strategy of PRUDENCE is to compare simulations of different regional models driven by the same global control and climate change simulations. These global conditions, representative for 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 were prepared by the Hadley Center based on the IPCC A2 SRES scenario. The results suggest that under future climatic conditions, storm surge extremes may increase along the North Sea coast towards the end of this century. Based on a comparison between the results of the different ensemble members as well as on the variability estimated from a high-resolution storm surge reconstruction of the recent decades it is found that this increase is significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence level for most of the North Sea coast. An exception represents the East coast of the UK which is not affected by this increase of storm surge extremes. 相似文献
105.
Effect of common point selection on coordinate transformation parameter determination 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The use of satellite positioning techniques commonly requires a transformation from a Conventional Terrestrial coordinate
system to a Geodetic coordinate system, or vice versa. For such a transformation, the main problem is the determination of
transformation parameters between these coordinate systems. The transformation parameters are estimated by a least-squares
process using “common” points, i.e., those points whose coordinates are known in both systems. Therefore, the precision of
so estimated transformation parameters is closely related to certain characteristics of the common points. In this contribution,
we have formulated some theoretical relations between the transformation parameters and the number and the distribution of
common points, and corroborated the theoretical results numerically, using a simulated geodetic network. 相似文献
106.
U-series systematics as well as Sr isotopes were measured on young seamount lavas from the Pitcairn hotspot collected during the Polynaut cruise. The combined U-series and Sr isotope data reveal typical mixing relationships between two endmembers. One typical ‘plume’ endmember with radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr and relatively low 230Th/238U and a ‘lithosphere’ endmember with less radiogenic 87Sr/86Sr and relatively larger 230Th/238U. Remarkably, all the lavas, except for a few arguably older samples, are characterized by 226Ra deficits relative to 230Th. On the basis of water content and trace element systematics, we argue that this is due to melting in the presence of phlogopite, which is only stable at lithosphere temperatures. A melting model including the diffusive exchange of elements among phlogopite, garnet and melt is used to constrain melting conditions of the lithosphere. These unusual 226Ra–230Th signatures can be explained by relatively slow melting rates at low matrix porosity. Our model also demonstrates that the effective partitioning behavior is dependent on the melting rate. A simple thermal model for lithosphere heating and melting is in good agreement with predicted melting rates. 相似文献
107.
The Arica Elbow region represents that part of Andean South America where the azimuth of the strike of the Peru-Chile trench changes from 150° to 190°. The area under study is roughly bounded by latitudes 17 °S and 23 °S, The shape of the Wadati-Benioff zone was studied in terms of the distribution of ISC hypocentres dated between 1964 and 1993. A system of 22 vertical cross-sections, perpendicular to the trench axis, and a map of epicentres was used to derive the detailed shape of the Wadati-Benioff zone of the presently descending slab. The distribution of earthquake foci indicates a fingerlike shape of the lower part of the Wadati-Benioff zone beneath the aseismic gap. The slab length shows small changes around 350 km in the northern sections, pronounced length oscillations between 350 and 750 km in the neighbouring central sections and a constant value of 650 km in the southern sections. The dip and thickness of the Wadati-Benioff zone are practically constant in all sections. Fault plane solutions, separated spatially into three zones, were used to estimate the state of stress in the slab. 相似文献
108.
Thomas Backhaus Rolf Altenburger sa Arrhenius Hans Blanck Michael Faust Antonio Finizio Paola Gramatica Matthias Grote Marion Junghans Wiebke Meyer Manuela Pavan Tobias Porsbring Martin Scholze Roberto Todeschini Marco Vighi Helge Walter L. Horst Grimme 《Continental Shelf Research》2003,23(17-19):1757
Freshwater and marine ecosystems are exposed to various multi-component mixtures of pollutants. Nevertheless, most ecotoxicological research and chemicals regulation focus on hazard and exposure assessment of individual substances only, the problem of chemical mixtures in the environment is ignored to a large extent. In contrast, the assessment of combination effects has a long tradition in pharmacology, where mixtures of chemicals are specifically designed to develop new products, e.g. human and veterinary drugs or agricultural and non-agricultural pesticides. In this area, two concepts are frequently used and are thought to describe fundamental relationships between single substance and mixture effects: Independent Action (Response Addition) and Concentration Addition. The question, to what extent these concepts may also be applied in an ecotoxicological and regulatory context may be considered a research topic of major importance, as the concepts would allow to make use of already existing single substance toxicity data for the predictive assessment of mixture toxicities. Two critical knowledge gaps are identified: (a) There is a lack of environmental realism, as a huge part of our current knowledge about the applicability of the concepts is restricted to artificial situations with respect to mixture composition or biological effect assessment. (b) The knowledge on what exactly is needed for using the concepts as tools for the predictive mixture toxicity assessment is insufficient. Both gaps seriously hamper the necessary, scientifically sound consideration of mixture toxicities in a regulatory context.In this paper, the two concepts will be briefly introduced, the necessity of considering the toxicities of chemical mixtures in the environment will be demonstrated and the applicability of Independent Action and Concentration Addition as tools for the prediction and assessment of mixture toxicities will be discussed. An overview of the specific aims and approaches of the BEAM project to fill in the identified knowledge gaps is given and first results are outlined. 相似文献
109.
Emil V. Stanev Jörg-Olaf Wolff Hans Burchard Karsten Bolding Götz Flöser 《Ocean Dynamics》2003,53(1):27-51
In this paper we use a combination of numerical modeling and data analysis to gain a better understanding of the major characteristics
of the circulation in the East Frisian Wadden Sea. In particular, we concentrate on the asymmetry of the tidal wave and its
modulation in the coastal area, which results in a complex pattern of responses to the sea-level forcing from the North Sea.
The numerical simulations are based on the 3-D primitive equation General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM) with a horizontal
resolution of 200 m and terrain-following vertical coordinates. The model is forced at its open boundaries with sea-level
data from an operational model for the German Bight (German Hydrographic Office). The validation data for our model simulations
include time series of tidal gauge data and surface currents measured at a pile in the back-barrier basin of the Island Langeoog,
as well as several ADCP transects in the Accumer Ee tidal inlet.
Circulation and turbulence characteristics are investigated for typical situations driven by spring and neap tides, and the
analysis is focused on dominating temporal and spatial patterns. By investigating the response of five back-barrier basins
with rather different morphologies to external forcing, an attempt is made to elucidate the dominating physical balances controlling
the circulation in the individual sub-basins. It is demonstrated that the friction at the seabed tends to slow down the tidal
signal in the shallow water. This leads to the establishment of flood dominance in the shallow sea north of the barrier islands.
South of the islands, where the water volume of the channels at low tide is smaller than the tidal prism, the asymmetry of
the tidal signal is shifted towards ebb dominance, a feature which is particularly pronounced at spring tide.
At the northern open boundary, the tidal wave propagating from west to east generates a sea-level difference of ∼1 m along
the boundary, and thereby triggers vigorous alongshore currents. The frictional control in the model is located in the inlets,
as well as along the northern boundary. The correlation between velocity and turbulent kinetic energy tends to the establishment
of a net southward transport, giving theoretical support to the observed accumulation of sediments on the intertidal flats.
Weak turbulence along the northern shores of the barrier islands and the small magnitude of the residual currents there promote
accumulation of suspended matter in these areas, although wave action will generally counteract this effect.
Received: 29 May 2002 / Accepted: 26 September 2002
Responsible Editor: Jean-Marie Beckers
Acknowledgements We are indebted to S. Dick for providing the data from the operational model of BSH and to B. Flemming for the useful discussions.
The topography data and Fig. 1 have been prepared in cooperation with F. Meyer. Figure 2 has been prepared by G. Brink-Spalink.
We also thank for the comments from an anonymous reviewer which helped to improve our paper. 相似文献
110.