Simulating rainfall time-series: how to account for statistical variability at multiple scales?

Daily rainfall is a complex signal exhibiting alternation of dry and wet states, seasonal fluctuations and an irregular behavior at multiple scales that cannot be preserved by stationary stochastic simulation models. In this paper, we try to investigate some of the strategies devoted to preserve these features by comparing two recent algorithms for stochastic rainfall simulation: the first one is the modified Markov model, belonging to the family of Markov-chain based techniques, which introduces non-stationarity in the chain parameters to preserve the long-term behavior of rainfall. The second technique is direct sampling, based on multiple-point statistics, which aims at simulating a complex statistical structure by reproducing the same data patterns found in a training data set. The two techniques are compared by first simulating a synthetic daily rainfall time-series showing a highly irregular alternation of two regimes and then a real rainfall data set. This comparison allows analyzing the efficiency of different elements characterizing the two techniques, such as the application of a variable time dependence, the adaptive kernel smoothing or the use of low-frequency rainfall covariates. The results suggest, under different data availability scenarios, which of these elements are more appropriate to represent the rainfall amount probability distribution at different scales, the annual seasonality, the dry-wet temporal pattern, and the persistence of the rainfall events.     

Avalanche risk assessment for mountain roads: a case study from Iceland

This paper presents an assessment of the avalanche hazard potential and the resulting risks on mountain roads for a 38.7-km-long section of road no 76 (Siglufjarearvegur) in northern Iceland following a regional scale approach developed in the Alps. The assessment of the individual avalanche death risk proved applicable to distinguish areas of avalanche hazard with a risk above the accepted level, which should be given priority in following detailed investigations and the planning of possible protective measures, from road sections where the avalanche death risk is low and accepted according to international practice. The cumulative individual and collective avalanche death risks in the investigated road section provide a comparable measure for assessing the avalanche hazard both within the Icelandic public road network and on an international scale. The case study on road no 76 in northern Iceland shows that a standardised regional scale risk-based approach is practical to determine, analyse and assess the avalanche hazard situation on mountain roads in Iceland and guarantees comprehensible, reproducible and comparable results as a basis for a sustainable planning of measures.     

Stratigraphy of the upper cretaceous and lower tertiary strata in the Tethyan Himalayas of Tibet (Tingri area,China)

The 1500-m-thick marine strata of the Tethys Himalaya of the Zhepure Mountain (Tingri, Tibet) comprise the Upper Albian to Eocene and represent the sedimentary development of the passive northern continental margin of the Indian plate. Investigations of foraminifera have led to a detailed biozonation which is compared with the west Tethyan record. Five stratigraphic units can be distinguished: The Gamba group (Upper Albian - Lower Santonian) represents the development from a basin and slope to an outer-shelf environment. In the following Zhepure Shanbei formation (Lower Santonian - Middle Maastrichtian), outer-shelf deposits continue. Pebbles in the top layers point to beginning redeposition on a continental slope. Intensified redeposition continues within the Zhepure Shanpo formation (Middle Maastrichtian - Lower Paleocene). The series is capped by sandstones of the Jidula formation (Danian) deposited from a seaward prograding delta plain. The overall succession of these units represents a sea-level high at the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary followed, from the Turonian to Danian, by an overall shallowing-upward megasequence. This is followed by a final transgression — regression cycle during the Paleocene and Eocene, documented in the Zhepure Shan formation (?Upper Danian - Lutetian) and by Upper Eocene continental deposits. The section represents the narrowing and closure of the Tethys as a result of the convergence between northward-drifting India and Eurasia. The plate collision started in the Lower Maastrichtian and caused rapid changes in sedimentation patterns affected by tectonic subsidence and uplift. Stronger subsidence and deposition took place from the Middle Maastrichtian to the Lower Paleocene. The final closure of remnant Tethys in the Tingri area took place in the Lutetian.     

Bifurcation points in close binary evolution: Medium-mass binaries

The remaining core hydrogen burning lifetime after case B of mass transfer of the secondary (mass gaining) component in a medium mass close binary star is estimated, for mediummass binaries with primaries in the mass range 5M to 9M . From the comparison of this quantity with the helium burning time-scale of the remnant primary a critical mass ratioq _c is derived such that for larger values ofq, mass transfer from the secondary towards the primary starts before the latter has evolved into a white dwarf. Consequences for the advanced stages of medium mass binaries are discussed.     

Long-term effects of anthropogenic CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions simulated with a complex earth system model

A new complex earth system model consisting of an atmospheric general circulation model, an ocean general circulation model, a three-dimensional ice sheet model, a marine biogeochemistry model, and a dynamic vegetation model was used to study the long-term response to anthropogenic carbon emissions. The prescribed emissions follow estimates of past emissions for the period 1751–2000 and standard IPCC emission scenarios up to the year 2100. After 2100, an exponential decrease of the emissions was assumed. For each of the scenarios, a small ensemble of simulations was carried out. The North Atlantic overturning collapsed in the high emission scenario (A2) simulations. In the low emission scenario (B1), only a temporary weakening of the deep water formation in the North Atlantic is predicted. The moderate emission scenario (A1B) brings the system close to its bifurcation point, with three out of five runs leading to a collapsed North Atlantic overturning circulation. The atmospheric moisture transport predominantly contributes to the collapse of the deep water formation. In the simulations with collapsed deep water formation in the North Atlantic a substantial cooling over parts of the North Atlantic is simulated. Anthropogenic climate change substantially reduces the ability of land and ocean to sequester anthropogenic carbon. The simulated effect of a collapse of the deep water formation in the North Atlantic on the atmospheric CO₂ concentration turned out to be relatively small. The volume of the Greenland ice sheet is reduced, but its contribution to global mean sea level is almost counterbalanced by the growth of the Antarctic ice sheet due to enhanced snowfall. The modifications of the high latitude freshwater input due to the simulated changes in mass balance of the ice sheet are one order of magnitude smaller than the changes due to atmospheric moisture transport. After the year 3000, the global mean surface temperature is predicted to be almost constant due to the compensating effects of decreasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations due to oceanic uptake and delayed response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations before.     

Geology of the Heimaey volcanic centre, south Iceland: early evolution of a central volcano in a propagating rift?

Heimaey is the southernmost and also the youngest of nine volcanic centres in the southward-propagating Eastern Volcanic Zone, Iceland. The island of Heimaey belongs to the Vestmannaeyjar volcanic system (850 km²) and is situated 10 km off the south coast of Iceland. Although Heimaey probably started to form during the Upper Pleistocene all the exposed subaerial volcanics (10 monogenetic vents covering an area of 13.4 km²) are of Holocene age. Heimaey is composed of roughly equal amounts of tuff/tuff-breccias and lavas as most eruptions involve both a phreatomagmatic and an effusive phase. The compositions of the extrusives are predominantly alkali basalts belonging to the sodic series. Repeated eruptions on Heimaey, and the occurrence of slightly more evolved rocks (i.e. hawaiite approaching mugearite), might indicate that the island is in an early stage of forming a central volcano in the Vestmannaeyjar system. This is further substantiated by the development of a magma chamber at 10–20 km depth during the most recent eruption in 1973 and by the fact that the average volume of material produced in a single eruption on Heimaey is 0.32 km³ (dense rock equivalent), which is twice the value reported for the Vestmannaeyjar system as a whole. We find no support for the previously postulated episodic behaviour of the volcanism in the Vestmannaeyjar system. However, the oldest units exposed above sea level, i.e. the Norðurklettar ridge, probably formed over a 500-year interval during the deglaciation of southern Iceland. The absence of equilibrium phenocryst assemblages in the Heimaey lavas suggests that magma rose quickly from depth, without long-time ponding in shallow-seated crustal magma chambers. Eruptions on Heimaey have occurred along two main lineaments (N45°E and N65°E), which indicate that it is seismic events associated with the southward propagation of the Eastern Volcanic Zone that open pathways for the magma to reach the surface. Continuing southward propagation of the Eastern Volcanic Zone suggests that the frequency of volcanic eruptions in the Vestmannaeyjar system might increase with time, and that Heimaey may develop into a central volcano like the mature volcanic centres situated on the Icelandic mainland.     

Zum Abbau von Formaldehyd durch adaptierte Bakterien

Municipal activated sludge was cultivated in a medium composed of formaldehyde, glucose and mineral salt. By passages with increasing formaldehyde content a bacterial culture was selected which remained active also at initial concentrations of 1 g/1 formaldehyde. With this culture, formaldehyde and glucose were oxidized simultaneously to formate and gluconate, which subsequently served simultaneously as substrate for the growth of bacteria. Glucose alone was also oxidized to gluconate, which then was used as substrate for growth. Formaldehyde alone was only oxidized. If the actual formaldehyde concentration was kept low, however, by fed-batch cultivation, it was assimilated also through formate formation. The biochemical background and the importance of the findings for the purification of formaldehyde-containing wastewaters are discussed.     

Solar system history as recorded in the saturnian ring structure

The paper is based on Holberg's analysis of the Voyager photographs in both reflected and transparent light, combined with occultation data of stars seen through the rings. Besides rapidly varying phenomena (spokes, braided ring, etc.), which according to Mendis are due to gravito-electromagnetic effects, the ring consists of abulk structure, a fine structure, and also ahyperfine structure, showing more than 10000 ringlets. The large number of ringlets can be explained by the Baxter-Thompson ‘negative diffusion’. This gives the ringlets a stability which makes it possible to interprete them as ‘fossils’, which originated at cosmogonic times. It is shown that thebulk structure can be explained by the combined ‘cosmogonic shadows’ of Mimas, the co-orbiting satellites, and the Shepherd satellites. This structure originated at the transition from the plasma phase to the planetesimal phase (which probably took place 4–5×10⁹ y ago). Further, Holberg has discovered that the shadows are not simple void region but exhibit a certain characteristic ‘signature’. This is not yet understood theoretically. Parts of thefine structure are explained by Holberg as resonances with the satellites. Parts are here interpreted as cosmogonic shadow effects. However, there are a number of ringlets which can neither be explained by cosmogonic nor by resonance effects. The most important conclusion is that an analysis of the ring data is likely to lead to areconstruction of the plasma-planetesimal transition with an accuracy of a few percent.     

Cyclicity in ridge patterns on the prograding coasts of Estonia

Recent LiDAR surveys have revealed that on postglacially uplifting coasts of Estonia rhythmic coastal landforms (beach ridge sequences and foredune plains) occur to a considerable extent. We studied four of them to reveal age and periodicity in these multiple ridge systems and discussed their genesis in the Subatlantic (semi‐continental) conditions of the Baltic Sea area. Using recent models of Fennoscandian uplift due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), we constructed Holocene apparent sea level curves for the study sites at Õngu, Mänspe, Haldi and Keibu; converted distance–height shore profiles into time series (including corrections on shore profile non‐linearity and variations in GIA‐eustasy balance); and analysed the patterns using spectral analysis. It was suggested that due to non‐tidal conditions, relatively low‐energy hydrodynamic forcing and small aeolian contribution, the ridges mark ancient shorelines. They are relatively modest in height (mostly 0.2–1 m), form regular and extensive (up to 150 ridges) patterns, and date back to ~9000 years before present. We studied <5‐ka‐old sections. The mean ridge spacing varied, depending also on coastal slope, between 21 and 39 m. Both simple counting and spectral analysis involved some specific limitations, yet the estimates for typical spacing were alike, at 32 (±5) years. The regular nature of the low‐ridge patterns originated from relative sea level lowering and gradual sediment accretion/erosion. However, the progradation was rather uplift‐ than accretion‐driven and the stepwise process in ridge formation was probably not autocyclic. It was governed or modulated by quasi‐periodic 25–40 year cyclicity in local wave forcing, relative sea level variations and wind conditions. Being most likely connected to the North Atlantic Oscillation, the quasi‐regular, decadal‐scale, similarly phased variations may magnify each other's effect on the westerly exposed coasts of Estonia. Additionally, some other (e.g. event‐driven) mechanisms may also be present.