The statistical properties of Λ cold dark matter halo formation

We present a comparison of the statistical properties of dark matter halo merger trees extracted from the Millennium Simulation with Extended Press–Schechter (EPS) formalism and the related galform Monte Carlo method for generating ensembles of merger trees. The volume, mass resolution and output frequency make the Millennium Simulation a unique resource for the study of the hierarchical growth of structure. We construct the merger trees of present-day friends-of-friends groups and calculate a variety of statistics that quantify the masses of their progenitors as a function of redshift, accretion rates, and the redshift distribution of their most recent major merger. We also look in the forward direction and quantify the present-day mass distribution of haloes into which high-redshift progenitors of a specific mass become incorporated. We find that the EPS formalism and its Monte Carlo extension capture the qualitative behaviour of all these statistics, but as redshift increases they systematically underestimate the masses of the most massive progenitors. This shortcoming is worst for the Monte Carlo algorithm. We present a fitting function to a scaled version of the progenitor mass distribution and show how it can be used to make more accurate predictions of both progenitor and final halo mass distributions.     

Holocene hydrological variability of Lake Ladoga,northwest Russia,as inferred from diatom oxygen isotopes

This article presents a new comprehensive assessment of the Holocene hydrological variability of Lake Ladoga, northwest Russia. The reconstruction is based on oxygen isotopes of lacustrine diatom silica (δ¹⁸O_diatom) preserved in sediment core Co 1309, and is complemented by a diatom assemblage analysis and a survey of modern isotope hydrology. The data indicate that Lake Ladoga has existed as a freshwater reservoir since at least 10.8 cal. ka BP. The δ¹⁸O_diatom values range from +29.8 to +35.0‰, and relatively higher δ¹⁸O_diatom values around +34.7‰ between c. 7.1 and 5.7 cal. ka BP are considered to reflect the Holocene Thermal Maximum. A continuous depletion in δ¹⁸O_diatom since c. 6.1 cal. ka BP accelerates after c. 4 cal. ka BP, indicating Middle to Late Holocene cooling that culminates during the interval 0.8–0.2 cal. ka BP, corresponding to the Little Ice Age. Lake‐level rises result in lower δ¹⁸O_diatom values, whereas lower lake levels cause higher δ¹⁸O_diatom values. The diatom isotope record gives an indication for a rather early opening of the Neva River outflow at c. 4.4–4.0 cal. ka BP. Generally, overall high δ¹⁸O_diatom values around +33.5‰ characterize a persistent evaporative lake system throughout the Holocene. As the Lake Ladoga δ¹⁸O_diatom record is roughly in line with the 60°N summer insolation, a linkage to broader‐scale climate change is likely.     

Collaborative Governance and Conflict Management: Lessons Learned and Good Practices from a Case Study in the Amazon Basin

Abstract

Given the linkages between natural resources and social conflicts, evidence increasingly shows that successful natural resource management requires conflict mitigation and prevention. However, there may be a gap in practice between knowing what processes and tools need to be used to manage conservation conflicts and how to actually implement them. We present learning from a practice-based case study of conflict management in the Amarakaeri Communal Reserve in the Peruvian Amazon that aimed to develop natural resource governance institutions and build stakeholder capacity, including of indigenous groups, to navigate existing conflict resolution mechanisms. Through applying good practices in conservation conflict management and collaborative governance, we generated important lessons on the practical considerations involved in collaborative conservation. These lessons, while specific to our case, could be applied to a variety of protected areas facing complex social-ecological systems dynamics and wicked problems.     

The Influence of Place on the Willingness to Pay for Ecosystem Services

Sense of place, including an individual’s attitudes toward specific geographic settings, is generally predicted to influence willingness to engage in place-protective behaviors. Relatively little research, however, has empirically examined the influence of people’s attitudes toward a place on their willingness to pay for environmental protection. Using the example of a payment for ecosystem services (PES) initiative in the McKenzie River watershed, Oregon, USA, we found that place attitudes were a significant predictor of respondents’ willingness to pay for a program designed to benefit drinking water quality. These results suggest that connecting conservation actions to landscapes that are meaningful to people may increase their financial support for PES and other conservation programs. While program managers have little or no influence over stakeholders’ political ideology, gender, or income, managers may be able to influence prospective PES buyers’ awareness and attitudes through targeted communications, thereby potentially increasing support for place-based conservation efforts.     

Uncertainties in projected runoff over the conterminous United States

Projections of runoff from global multi-model ensembles provide a valuable basis for the estimation of future hydrological extremes. However, projections suffer from uncertainty that originates from different error sources along the modeling chain. Hydrological impact studies have generally partitioned these error sources into global impact and global climate model (GIM and GCM, respectively) uncertainties, neglecting other sources, including scenarios and internal variability. Using a set of GIMs driven by GCMs under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs), this study aims to partition the uncertainty of future flows coming from GIMs, GCMs, RCPs, and internal variability over the CONterminous United States (CONUS). We focus on annual maximum, median, and minimum runoff, analyzed decadally over the twenty-first century. Results indicate that GCMs and GIMs are responsible for the largest fraction of uncertainty over most of the study area, followed by internal variability and to a smaller extent RCPs. To investigate the influence of the ensemble setup on uncertainty, in addition to the full ensemble, three ensemble configurations are studied using fewer GIMs (excluding least credible GIMs in runoff representation and GIMs accounting for vegetation and CO₂ dynamics), and excluding intermediate RCPs. Overall, the use of fewer GIMs has a minor impact on uncertainty for low and medium flows, but a substantial impact for high flows. Regardless of the number of pathways considered, RCPs always play a very small role, suggesting that improvement of GCMs and GIMs and more informed ensemble selections can yield a reduction of projected uncertainties.     

Climate change influences on pollinator,forest, and farm interactions across a climate gradient

Improved cookstoves have been identified in Mexico as a key opportunity to advance sustainable local development priorities in disadvantaged regions while mitigating climate change. This paper reviews the Patsari Cookstove Project initiated in 2003 by an NGO, Interdisciplinary Group on Appropriate Rural Technology (GIRA). The project applied an interdisciplinary and participative user-centered approach to disseminate improved cookstoves in rural Mexico, with a special focus on indigenous and poor rural communities. To date, GIRA and the Patsari Network have disseminated thousands of stoves using a “training to trainers” model. Benefits from the project include tangible improvements in users’ health, as well as savings in time and money expended on fuelwood procurement and use. The project has also documented substantive environmental benefits from significant mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with traditional open fires. To sustain scaling up efforts over the long-term, two networks have been created: The Patsari Network, which includes several organizations promoting Patsari stoves for household users, and the Tsiri Network, which supports local food security and the empowerment of indigenous women through the promotion of institutional cookstoves. Through appropriately designed and implemented local interventions, the project demonstrates that the goals of advancing sustainable local development in rural areas and climate change mitigation may not be contradictory, and may in fact reinforce one another.     

Effects of rainfall on oil droplet size and the dispersion of spilled oil with application to Douglas Channel,British Columbia,Canada

Raindrops falling on the sea surface produce turbulence. The present study examined the influence of rain-induced turbulence on oil droplet size and dispersion of oil spills in Douglas Channel in British Columbia, Canada using hourly atmospheric data in 2011–2013. We examined three types of oils: a light oil (Cold Lake Diluent - CLD), and two heavy oils (Cold Lake Blend - CLB and Access Western Blend - AWB). We found that the turbulent energy dissipation rate produced by rainfalls is comparable to what is produced by wind-induced wave breaking in our study area. With the use of chemical dispersants, our results indicate that a heavy rainfall (rain rate > 20 mm h^? 1) can produce the maximum droplet size of 300 μm for light oil and 1000 μm for heavy oils, and it can disperse the light oil with fraction of 22–45% and the heavy oils of 8–13%, respectively. Heavy rainfalls could be a factor for the fate of oil spills in Douglas Channel, especially for a spill of light oil and the use of chemical dispersants.     

Mesocosm experiments identifying hotspots of groundwater upwelling in a water column by fibre optic distributed temperature sensing

Lacustrine groundwater discharge (LGD) can substantially impact ecosystem characteristics and functions. Fibre optic distributed temperature sensing (FO‐DTS) has been successfully used to locate groundwater discharge into lakes and rivers at the sediment–water interface, but locating groundwater discharge would be easier if it could be detected from the more accessible water surface. So far, it is not clear if how and under which conditions the LGD signal propagates through the water column to the water surface–atmosphere interface, and what perturbations and signal losses occur along this pathway. In the present study, LGD was simulated in a mesocosm experiment. Under winter conditions, water with temperatures of 14 to 16 °C was discharged at the bottom of a 10 × 2.8‐m mesocosm. Water within this mesocosm ranged from 4.0 to 7.4 °C. Four layers (20, 40, 60, and 80 cm above the sediment) of the 82 cm deep mesocosm were equipped with FO‐DTS for tracing thermal patterns in the mesocosm. Aims are (a) to test whether the positive buoyancy of relatively warm groundwater imported by LGD into shallow water bodies allows detection of LGD at the lake's water surface–atmosphere interface by FO‐DTS, (b) to analyse the propagation of the temperature signal from the sediment‐water interface through the water column, and (c) to learn more about detectability of the signal under different discharge rates and weather conditions. The experiments supported the benchmarking of scale dependencies and robustness of FO‐DTS applications for measuring upwelling into aquatic environments and revealed that weather conditions can have important impacts on the detection of upwelling at water surface–atmosphere interfaces at larger scales.     

Chemical Procedures for Rhenium Extraction from Geological Samples: Optimising the Anion Resin Bead Clean‐up Step

Rhenium–osmium geochronometry for samples with low Re and complex matrices requires improved Re extraction methods. Here, we investigate plausible controls on efficiency and efficacy of Re extraction during our anion resin bead purification. Four different protocols are compared, each isolating a single variable to test. Rhenium concentrations for solutions at each step of each protocol document differences in chemical recovery/yield. The negative‐thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (N‐TIMS) signal intensity serves as a proxy for Re yield and purity. These data document correlations between the N‐TIMS signal intensity and (a) the duration of anion resin bead conditioning prior to loading with Re‐bearing solution, and (b) both duration and strength of nitric acid used during rinsing of the Re‐loaded anion resin bead. The optimal protocol improved Re signal intensity around fourteen times compared with our current Re extraction protocol, an aggregate of 2.4 times improvement in chemical recovery (yield) and 5.8 times improvement in emission efficiency (purity). Repeated N‐TIMS isotopic measurements on our in‐house Re standard solution (1407) verify that our optimal protocol‐3 does not fractionate Re isotopes. The improved anion resin bead method considerably lowers the Re detection limit and allows Re‐Os isotopic analysis of picogram‐level Re hosted in geological samples with complex matrices.     

Proglacial groundwater storage dynamics under climate change and glacier retreat

Proglacial aquifers are an important water store in glacierised mountain catchments that supplement meltwater-fed river flows and support freshwater ecosystems. Climate change and glacier retreat will perturb water storage in these aquifers, yet the climate-glacier-groundwater response cascade has rarely been studied and remains poorly understood. This study implements an integrated modelling approach that combines distributed glacio-hydrological and groundwater models with climate change projections to evaluate the evolution of groundwater storage dynamics and surface-groundwater exchanges in a temperate, glacierised catchment in Iceland. Focused infiltration along the meltwater-fed Virkisá River channel is found to be an important source of groundwater recharge and is projected to provide 14%–20% of total groundwater recharge by the 2080s. The simulations highlight a mechanism by which glacier retreat could inhibit river recharge in the future due to the loss of diurnal melt cycling in the runoff hydrograph. However, the evolution of proglacial groundwater level dynamics show considerable resilience to changes in river recharge and, instead, are driven by changes in the magnitude and seasonal timing of diffuse recharge from year-round rainfall. The majority of scenarios simulate an overall reduction in groundwater levels with a maximum 30-day average groundwater level reduction of 1 m. The simulations replicate observational studies of baseflow to the river, where up to 15% of the 30-day average river flow comes from groundwater outside of the melt season. This is forecast to reduce to 3%–8% by the 2080s due to increased contributions from rainfall and meltwater runoff. During the melt season, groundwater will continue to contribute 1%–3% of river flow despite significant reductions in meltwater runoff inputs. Therefore it is concluded that, in the proglacial region, groundwater will continue to provide only limited buffering of river flows as the glacier retreats.