Measuring the relationships between landscape aesthetics suitability and spatial patterns of urbanized lands: an informed modelling framework for developing urban growth scenarios

This study develops an informed modelling approach that follows a bottom-up planning strategy to define plausible urban growth scenarios. In this case, landscape aesthetics suitability of the area was first generated using multi-criteria evaluation method. Then, a buffer zone of 1 km was considered to extract the average values of aesthetics suitability scores surrounding urban patches with medium physical size (10–30 hectares). The averaged values were considered as the dependent variable. In the next step, landscape metrics of these urban patches, as explanatory variables, were also computed to measure compositional and configuration-based attributes of urban clusters. Bivariate associations (Pearson correlation analysis) and statistical relationships (linear regression algorithm) between landscape metrics and their associated aesthetics values were measured and modelled. According to the results, both composition and configuration values are significantly correlated to the dependent variable in which configuration-based attributes depicted a stronger explanatory power.     

Trends of precipitation extreme indices over a subtropical semi-arid area using PERSIANN-CDR

In this study, satellite-based daily precipitation estimation data from precipitation estimation from remotely sensed information using artificial neural networks (PERSIANN)-climate data record (CDR) are being evaluated in Iran. This dataset (0.25°, daily), which covers over three decades of continuous observation beginning in 1983, is evaluated using rain-gauge data for the period of 1998–2007. In addition to categorical statistics and mean annual amount and number of rainy days, ten standard extreme indices were calculated to observe the behavior of daily extremes. The results show that PERSIANN-CDR exhibits reasonable performance associated with the probability of detection and false-alarm ratio, but it overestimates precipitation in the area. Although PERSIANN-CDR mostly underestimates extreme indices, it shows relatively high correlations (between 0.6316–0.7797) for intensity indices. PERSIANN-CDR data are also used to calculate the trend in annual amounts of precipitation, the number of rainy days, and precipitation extremes over Iran covering the period of 1983–2012. Our analysis shows that, although annual precipitation decreased in the western and eastern regions of Iran, the annual number of rainy days increased in the northern and northwestern areas. Statistically significant negative trends are identified in the 90th percentile daily precipitation, as well as the mean daily precipitation from wet days in the northern part of the study area. The positive trends of the maximum annual number of consecutive dry days in the eastern regions indicate that the dry periods became longer in these arid areas.     

Curie point depth beneath the Barramiya–Red Sea coast area estimated from aeromagnetic spectral analysis

The geothermal structure beneath of the Barramiya?CRed Sea coast area of the Central Eastern Desert of Egypt has been determined using Curie point depth (CPD), which is temperature-dependent. The CPD and the surface heat flow (q) maps of such area are estimated by analyzing aeromagnetic data. Such data are low-pass-filtered and analyzed to estimate the magnetic bottom using the centroid method. The heat flow map reflects the geothermic nature of the region. However, it is suggested that the shallow Curie point temperature depth pattern depends on the tectonic regime and morphology, which continues eastwards through the Red Sea. Particularly, the coastal regions are characterized by high heat flow (83.6?mW/m²) and shallow Curie depth (22.5?km), whereas the western portion of the studied area has a lower heat flow (<50?mW/m²) and deeper Curie depth (~40?km). In addition to its bordering to the Red Sea margin, such high heat flow anomaly is associated with the increased earthquake swarms activity in the Abu Dabbab area. El-Hady (1993) attributed the swarm activity to the geothermal evolution. Also, the heat flow pattern is correlatable by the numerous results of shallow borehole temperature measurements as reported by Morgan and Swanberg (1979). A significant low heat flow extending in the northeast?Csouthwest direction, which is associated with NE?CSW large areal extent negative Bouguer gravity anomaly and NE/SW-trending belt of the deep CPD region, seems to be directly related to the surface outcrops of Precambrian older granitoids of the mountainous range of that trend.     

Uplift response of symmetrical anchor plates in reinforced cohesionless soil

The uplift response of symmetrical anchor plates with and without geogrid reinforcement layers has been evaluated in model tests and numerical simulations using PLAXIS. Many parameters of the reinforcement layers were used to reinforce the sandy soil over circular, square, and rectangular symmetrical anchor plates of various sizes. In the current research, different parameters, such as relative density of sand and embedment ratios, in conjunction with geogrid reinforcement layer parameters including size, number of layers, and the proximity of the layer to the circular anchor plate, were investigated in a scale model. The failure mechanism and the associated rupture surface were observed and evaluated. Test results showed that using geogrid reinforcement layers significantly improves the uplift capacity of symmetrical anchor plates. It was found that inclusion of one geogrid layer resting directly on top of the symmetrical anchor plate was more effective in enhancing the symmetrical anchor capacity than the layer itself. It was also found that the inclusion of one geogrid layer on the symmetrical anchor plate improved the uplift capacity more than the same symmetrical anchor plate embedded without a reinforcement layer. The single geogrid layer was also more effective in enhancing the uplift capacity compared to the multiple geogrid layer reinforcement approach. In general, the results show that the uplift capacity of symmetrical anchor plates in loose and dense sand can be significantly increased by the inclusion of geogrid layers. It was also observed that the inclusion of geogrid layers reduces the requirement for a higher L/D ratio to achieve the required uplift capacity. The results of the laboratory and numerical analysis are found to be in agreement in terms of the breakout factor and failure mechanism pattern.     

Groundwater vulnerability and risk mapping of the Hajeb-jelma aquifer (Central Tunisia) using a GIS-based DRASTIC model

The aim of this study is to elaborate a synthetic document for the assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution in the Hajeb-Jelma aquifer. The specific object is to incorporate the Geographical Information System (GIS) to generate groundwater vulnerability and risk maps with DRASTIC model. Indeed, GIS could help to make the results of a complicated model more clear through visual representation, providing an applicable tool for decision makers. The vulnerability map of Hajeb-Jelma watershed shows three classes: moderate, high and very high depending on the intrinsic properties. The risk map shows a very high risk dependant on hydrogeological characteristics, land use and human impacts in major part of the Hajeb-Jelma region. These maps could serve as a scientific basis for sustainable land use planning and groundwater management in the Hajeb-Jelma region.     

Modeling forest fire risk in the northeast of Iran using remote sensing and GIS techniques

Fire in forested areas can be regarded as an environmental disaster which is triggered by either natural forces or anthropogenic activities. Fires are one of the major hazards in forested and grassland areas in the north of Iran. Control of fire is difficult, but it is feasible to map fire risk by geospatial technologies and thereby minimize the frequency of fire occurrences and damages caused by fire. The fire risk models provide a suitable concept to understand characterization of fire risk. Some models are map based, and they combine effectively different forest fire–causing variables with remote sensing data in a GIS environment for identifying and mapping forest fire risk. In this study, Structural Fire Index, Fire Risk Index, and a new index called Hybrid Fire Index were used to delineate fire risk in northeastern Iran that is subjected to frequent forest fire. Vegetation moisture, slope, aspect, elevation, distance from roads, and vicinity to settlements were used as the factors influencing accidental fire starts. These indices were set up by assigning subjective weight values to the classes of the layers based on their sensitivity ratio to fire. Hot spots data derived from MODIS satellite sensor were used to validate the indices. Assessment of the indices with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shows that 76.7 % accuracy of the HFI outperformed the other two indices. According to the Hybrid Fire Index, 57.5 % of the study area is located under high-risk zone, 33 % in medium-risk zone, and the remaining 9.5 % area is located in low-risk zone.     

The hydrogeochemical characterization of groundwater in Gafsa-Sidi Boubaker region (Southwestern Tunisia)

Gafsa region is one of the most productive artesian basins in Southern Tunisia. It is located in the southwestern part of the country, and its groundwater resources are developed for water supply and irrigation. Proper understanding of the geochemical evolution of groundwater is important for sustainable development of water resources in this region. A hydrogeochemical survey was conducted on the Plio-Quaternary shallow and on the Complex Terminal aquifers system using major (Ca, Mg, Na, SO₄, Cl, NO₃ and HCO₃) and minor (Sr) elements, in order to evaluate the groundwater chemistry patterns and the main mineralization processes occurring in this system. Hydrochemical and isotopic data were used in conjunction with hydrogeological characteristics to investigate the groundwater composition in these aquifers. It has been demonstrated that groundwaters acquire their mineralization principally by water–rock interaction, i.e. dissolution of evaporites (halite/gypsum, pyrite, etc.) and return flow of irrigation waters, and by anthropogenic activities due to the use of nitrogen (N) fertilizers–pesticides in agriculture. The isotopic study of “stable isotopes, radiocarbon and tritium” (Yermani 2002) shows that a paleoclimatic recharge is corroborated by the relatively low carbon-14 activities (5–25.3%) of the referred groundwater group samples, which were interpreted as recharge occurring during the late Pleistocene and the early Holocene periods. The water feedings of these aquifers are mainly provided by infiltration of precipitations, infiltration of irrigation water, lateral feeding from Cretaceous relieves from the South and the North and along recent and fossil drainage networks that constitute major freshwater sources in groundwater tables (Hamed et al., J Environ Protect 1:466–474, 2010a).     

The distribution of Spearman’s rho trend statistic for persistent hydrologic data

Abstract

Spearman’s rho, a distribution-free statistic, has been suggested in the literature for testing the significance of trend in time series data. Although the use of the test based on Spearman’s rho (also known as the Daniels test) is less widespread than that based on Kendall’s tau (the Mann-Kendall test), the two tests have been shown in the literature to be equivalent for time series with independent observations. The distribution of the Mann-Kendall trend statistic for persistent data has been previously addressed in the literature. In this paper, the distribution of Spearman’s rho as a trend test statistic for persistent data is studied. Following the same procedures used for Kendall’s tau in earlier work, an exact expression for the variance of Spearman’s rho for persistent data with multivariate Gaussian dependence is derived, and a method for calculating the exact full distribution of rho for small sample sizes is also outlined. Approximations for moderate and large sample sizes are also discussed. A case study of testing the significance of trends in a group of world river flow station data using both Kendall’s tau and Spearman’s rho is presented. Both the theoretical results and those of the case study confirm the equivalence of trend testing based on Spearman’s rho and Kendall’s tau for persistent hydrologic data.

Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi