Inverse modelling for freshwater lens in small islands: Kish Island,Persian Gulf

A number of challenges including instability, nonconvergence, nonuniqueness, nonoptimality, and lack of a general guideline for inverse modelling have limited the application of automatic calibration by generic inversion codes in solving the saltwater intrusion problem in real‐world cases. A systematic parameter selection procedure for the selection of a small number of independent parameters is applied to a real case of saltwater intrusion in a small island aquifer system in the semiarid region of the Persian Gulf. The methodology aims at reducing parameter nonuniqueness and uncertainty and the time spent on inverse modelling computations. Subsequent to the automatic calibration of the numerical model, uncertainty is analysed by constrained nonlinear optimization of the inverse model. The results define the percentage of uncertainty in the parameter estimation that will maintain the model inside a user‐defined neighbourhood of the best possible calibrated model. Sensitivity maps of both pressure and concentration for the small island aquifer system are also developed. These sensitivity maps indicate higher sensitivity of pressure to model parameters compared with concentration. These sensitivity maps serve as a benchmark for correlation analysis and also assist in the selection of observations points of pressure and concentration in the calibration process. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transitions toward co-management: The process of marine resource management devolution in three east African countries

Communities are increasingly empowered with the ability and responsibility of working with national governments to make decisions about marine resources in decentralized co-management arrangements. This transition toward decentralized management represents a changing governance landscape. This paper explores the transition to decentralisation in marine resource management systems in three East African countries. The paper draws upon expert opinion and literature from both political science and linked social-ecological systems fields to guide exploration of five key governance transition concepts in each country: (1) drivers of change; (2) institutional arrangements; (3) institutional fit; (4) actor interactions; and (5) adaptive management. Key findings are that decentralized management in the region was largely donor-driven and only partly transferred power to local stakeholders. However, increased accountability created a degree of democracy in regards to natural resource governance that was not previously present. Additionally, increased local-level adaptive management has emerged in most systems and, to date, this experimental management has helped to change resource user's views from metaphysical to more scientific cause-and-effect attribution of changes to resource conditions.     

A Neuro-Fuzzy modeling for prediction of solar cycles 24 and 25

The paper presents a Neuro-Fuzzy model to predict the features of the forthcoming sunspot cycles 24 and 25. The sunspot time series were analyzed with the proposed model. It is optimized based on Backpropagation scheme and applied to the yearly smoothed sunspot numbers. The appropriate number of network inputs for the sunspots data series is obtained based on sequential forward search for the Neuro-Fuzzy model. According to the model prediction the maximum amplitudes of the cycles 24 and 25 will occur in the year 2013 and year 2022 with peaks of 101±8 and 90.7±8, respectively. The correlation and error analysis are discussed to ensure the performance of the proposed Neuro-Fuzzy approach as a predictor for sunspot time series. The correlation coefficient between Neuro-Fuzzy model forecasted sunspot number values with the actual ones is 0.96.     

Les xénolites ultramafiques du volcanisme alcalin quaternaire d'Oranie (Tell,Algérie occidentale), témoins d'une lithosphère cisaillée et enrichieUltramafic xenoliths from Quaternary alkali volcanism from Oranie (Tell,western Algeria): witnesses of a sheared and enriched lithosphere

Numerous ultramafic xenoliths occur within the A??n–Temouchent volcanic complex (Northwestern Oranie, Algeria). Most of them are type I mantle tectonites (lherzolites and harzburgites) and composite xenoliths (harzburgite/clinopyroxenite) are rare. Only a few samples of spinel lherzolites display relatively fertile compositions when the major part of type I xenoliths have refractory major element compositions but enriched LREE contents showing that they have been affected by mantle metasomatism. The composite xenoliths are witnesses of reactions of alkaline magmas with the upper mantle. An asthenospheric rising, in relation with the large strike slip fault affecting the North African plate margin at Trias time is proposed as a possible geodynamical setting. To cite this article: M. Zerka et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 387–394.     

A supervised committee machine artificial intelligent for improving DRASTIC method to assess groundwater contamination risk: a case study from Tabriz plain aquifer,Iran

Vulnerability maps are designed to show areas of greatest potential for groundwater contamination on the basis of hydrogeological conditions and human impacts. The objective of this research is (1) to assess the groundwater vulnerability using DRASTIC method and (2) to improve the DRASTIC method for evaluation of groundwater contamination risk using AI methods, such as ANN, SFL, MFL, NF and SCMAI approaches. This optimization method is illustrated using a case study. For this purpose, DRASTIC model is developed using seven parameters. For validating the contamination risk assessment, a total of 243 groundwater samples were collected from different aquifer types of the study area to analyze \( {\text{NO}}_{ 3}^{ - } \) concentration. To develop AI and CMAI models, 243 data points are divided in two sets; training and validation based on cross validation approach. The calculated vulnerability indices from the DRASTIC method are corrected by the \( {\text{NO}}_{3}^{ - } \) data used in the training step. The input data of the AI models include seven parameters of DRASTIC method. However, the output is the corrected vulnerability index using \( {\text{NO}}_{3}^{ - } \) concentration data from the study area, which is called groundwater contamination risk. In other words, there is some target value (known output) which is estimated by some formula from DRASTIC vulnerability and \( {\text{NO}}_{3}^{ - } \) concentration values. After model training, the AI models are verified by the second \( {\text{NO}}_{3}^{ - } \) concentration dataset. The results revealed that NF and SFL produced acceptable performance while ANN and MFL had poor prediction. A supervised committee machine artificial intelligent (SCMAI), which combines the results of individual AI models using a supervised artificial neural network, was developed for better prediction of vulnerability. The performance of SCMAI was also compared to those of the simple averaging and weighted averaging committee machine intelligent (CMI) methods. As a result, the SCMAI model produced reliable estimates of groundwater contamination risk.     

Harold Edwin Hurst: the Nile and Egypt,past and future

ABSTRACT

H.E. Hurst spent some 60 years studying the Nile for the Egyptian government, and laid the foundation for a monumental set of hydrological records and investigations. His studies of the size of over-year reservoirs needed to maintain a given yield from Nile flows showed that this was greater than that based on random series. This finding, known as the Hurst phenomenon, was confirmed by other natural series and led to important advances in practical and theoretical statistics. His work led to the design of the Aswan High Dam and to continued research in Egypt.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor E. Eris     

Expansion of cavities in layered elastic system

Theoretical formulations to the problem of expansion of spherical and cylindrical cavities in a layered elastic system are presented. The medium surrounding the cavity is assumed to consist of several layers, and each is idealized as a linear elastic solid. The solutions are expressed in matrix forms and can be obtained using a programmable calculator. The developed solutions are of some importance in geomechanics. The spherical cavity solution can be used to compute the settlement of single axially loaded piles. The predicted settlement using the analysis outlined herein agrees reasonably well with one case of field measurements. The cylindrical cavity solution can be used to manifest the effect of disturbed mass at the cavity wall on the stress–strain and deformation characteristics of the intact mass.     

Prospection géoélectrique pour l'étude de l'aquifère thermal des calcaires récifaux, Hmeïma–Boujabeur (Centre ouest de la Tunisie)

The Hmeïma–Boujabeur zone is considered as an important geothermal province for Tunisia. The reef limestone, characterized by intense fracturation and important karstification, confers them the property to be a regional thermal aquifer. A geophysical study based on two complementary geoelectrical methods, the Electrical Sounding (ES) and Magneto-Telluric Sounding (MTS), turned out to be very efficient to provide a complete electrical image of the underground until about 1-km depth. The synthetic approach integrating all data allowed us to delimit the favourable area for thermal water exploitation. To cite this article: M. Gouasmia et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).