湖南省有限区域数值天气预报系统模拟试验

介绍了湖南省有限区域数值天气预报系统，该系统试用结果表明，系统具有较强的稳定性和实用性，降水的时空分布的预报效果较好。数值模拟试验结果表明，模拟降水预报对积云参数化方案、边界层参数化方案、辐射参数化方案等比较敏感。     

Effects of climate change and agronomic practice on changes in wheat phenology

Phenological changes in crops affect efficient agricultural production and can be used as important biological indicators of local and regional climate change. Although crop phenological changes and their responses to climate change, especially temperature, have been investigated, the impact of agronomic practice such as cultivar shifts and planted date changes on crop phenology remains unclear. Here, we used a long-term dataset (1981–2010) of wheat phenology and associated local weather data from 48 agro-meteorological stations in four temperature zones in China to analyze phenological changes of spring and winter wheat. Trend analysis method was used to estimate changes in the date of growth stages and the duration of growth phases, while sensitivity analysis method was used to qualify the response of growth phase duration to mean temperature (T_mean), total precipitation (PRE), and total sunshine duration (SSD). Using the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis-wheat model, we isolated the impacts of climate change, cultivar selection, and sowing date on phenological change of wheat. Results show that phenological changes were greatest in the warm-temperate zone. Sensitivity analysis indicates that growth phase duration was generally negatively related to T_mean and positively related to PRE and SSD. The positive sensitivity response to T_mean occurred in the tillering to jointing and sowing to maturity growth periods in the warmer temperature zones, suggesting that warmer temperatures during the overwintering period hampered effective vernalization in winter wheat. Modeling results further indicate that reductions in wheat growth duration caused by climate change could be offset by the introduction of new cultivars with high thermal requirements and accelerated with delayed sowing date.     

“2004．6”湘西北低空急流暴雨的中尺度分析

利用常规观测、T213、雷达和MM5中尺度模式输出资料对2004年6月23—24日湘西北地区的暴雨和大暴雨进行了天气动力学和中尺度分析。结果表明：这场暴雨是在有利的天气背景条件下产生的，造成强降水的雨团在时空尺度上具有中尺度系统的特征，中尺度辐合线和低空急流为降水发生提供了有利的触发条件。     

2016年初萍乡地区两次降雪过程对比分析

利用常规气象观测资料对萍乡地区2016年1月和2月两次相临的降雪过程进行对比分析,结果表明,1月过程的冷空气强度、动力条件、水汽条件及不稳定条件均优于2月过程,但1月过程仅出现零星小雪,2月过程却出现了大雪。采用ECWMF高分辨率资料和GPS/MET可降水量资料对两次过程进行更深入分析发现,1月过程的水汽条件、上升运动条件以及对称不稳定条件有明显的衰减,而2月过程中的水汽条件、上升运动条件以及对称不稳定条件都有所增强,且持续时间较长。     

Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part II: model-simulated historical and future drought changes

While most models project large increases in agricultural drought frequency and severity in the 21st century, significant uncertainties exist in these projections. Here, we compare the model-simulated changes with observation-based estimates since 1900 and examine model projections from both the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5). We use the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index with the Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration (PET) (sc_PDSI_pm) as a measure of agricultural drought. Results show that estimated long-term changes in global and hemispheric drought areas from 1900 to 2014 are consistent with the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-simulated response to historical greenhouse gases and other external forcing, with the short-term variations within the model spread of internal variability, despite that regional changes are still dominated by internal variability. Both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models project continued increases (by 50–200 % in a relative sense) in the 21st century in global agricultural drought frequency and area even under low-moderate emissions scenarios, resulting from a decrease in the mean and flattening of the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the sc_PDSI_pm. This flattening is especially pronounced over the Northern Hemisphere land, leading to increased drought frequency even over areas with increasing sc_PDSI_pm. Large differences exist in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-projected precipitation and drought changes over the Sahel and northern Australia due to uncertainties in simulating the African Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the subsidence zone over northern Australia, while the wetting trend over East Africa reflects a robust response of the Indian Ocean ITCZ seen in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. While warming-induced PET increases over all latitudes and precipitation decreases over subtropical land are responsible for mean sc_PDSI_pm decreases, the exact cause of its PDF flattening needs further investigation.     

Determining Boundary-Layer Height from Aircraft Measurements

The height of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is an important variable in both observational studies and model simulations. The most commonly used measurement for obtaining ABL height is a rawinsonde profile. Mesoscale or regional scale models use a bulk Richardson number based on profiles of the forecast variables. Here we evaluate the limitations of several frequently-used approaches for defining ABL height from a single profile, and identify the optimal threshold value for each method if profiles are the only available measurements. Aircraft measurements from five field projects are used, representing a variety of ABL conditions including stable, convective, and cloud-topped boundary layers over different underlying surfaces. ABL heights detected from these methods were validated against the ‘true’ value determined from aircraft soundings, where ABL height is defined as the top of the layer with significant turbulence. A detection rate was defined to denote how often the ABL height was correctly diagnosed with a particular method. The results suggest that the temperature gradient method provides the most reasonable estimates, although the detection rate and suitable detection criteria vary for different types of ABL. The Richardson number method, on the other hand, is in most cases inadequate or inferior to the other methods that were tried. The optimal range of the detection criteria is given for all ABL types examined in this study.     

利用红外辐射光谱反演大气CO2浓度的理论研究

依据最新的大气分子光谱数据集(HITRAN 2004),利用逐线积分辐射传输模式,模拟计算了大气顶射出红外辐射光谱及其对大气CO2浓度变化的灵敏度,发现:大气CO2 4.3 μm吸收带,特别是2 2412 249 cm-1、2 2502 258 cm-1、2 2592 267 cm-1和2 3822 390 cm-1波段射出的红外辐射,随CO2浓度的增加而显著降低,且很少受其他大气成分变化干扰,因此特别适于用来遥感探测大气CO2浓度的变化.根据最优非线性反演方法,反演获得了015 km的大气CO2廓线,结果表明,利用上述4个通道的红外辐射值,可精确反演出自由对流层的CO2浓度变化.     

A New Precipitation Index for the Spatiotemporal Distribution of Drought and Flooding in the Reaches of the Yangtze and Huaihe Rivers and Related Characteristics of Atmospheric Circulation

Characteristics of the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation anomalies in the reaches of the Yangtze River and Huaihe River (YHR) were studied using EOF method. Four main precipitation pat-terns for the YHR in summer identified by the first two modes: a region-wide flood over the entire YHR (RWF); a region-wide drought over the entire YHR (RWD); a flood in the south with a drought in the northern region of the Yangtze River (FS-DN); and a drought in the south with a flood in the northern region of the Yangtze River (DS-FN). Based on the first two modes and the actual precipitation departure percentage, a new precipitation index is defined in this paper. The typical flood/drought years associated with the various rainfall patterns defined by this precipitation index are more representative and closer to reality compared to some existing precipitation indexes which just use the area-mean precipitation or the EOF time components individually. The characteristics of atmospheric circulation in summer corresponding to the four main precipitation patterns over the YHR in summer show the features of atmospheric circulation differ in different precipitation pattern years. Although the different patterns share a common main influential circulation system, such as the blocking high over northeastern Asia, the low trough of westerly flows in the mid latitudes, the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), and the high ridge over the Tibet Plateau, the difference in location and intensity of these systems can lead to different distributions of precipitation anomalies.     

用CAPPI的资料估算区域降水量和雷达反射率因子垂直廓线初探

应用上海中心气象台714数字化天气雷达立体扫描资料，分析并比较了单站及区域降水量在不同高度上的差异，并用地面雨量计资料进行了校准，尔后研究了它们的精度。最后初步探讨了上海地区3次降水天气过程中反射率因子Z的垂直分布廓线。     

柴达木盆地新生代构造样式的演化特点

本文将柴达木盆地新生代构造样式的演化归纳为６种序列和两个主要阶段,即冲断构造→生背斜→反冲断层→断层背斜序列、生长背斜→反冲断层＋断层疹斜序列、生长背斜→纵弯背斜序列、生长断层→滑脱褶皱序列、水平岩层→纵弯背斜序列。构造样式的演化具有明显的地区性特点,盆地南北两侧具似性,而盆地中央呈东西差异。两个阶段是喜马拉雅早中期的压缩构造样式发育阶段和晚期的强烈压缩构造样式发育阶段。控制柴达木盆地构造样式规律