El Chichón volcano, April 4, 1982: volcanic cloud history and fine ash fallout

This retrospective study focuses on the fine silicate particles (<62 µm in diameter) produced in a large eruption that was otherwise well studied. Fine particles represent a potential hazard to aircraft, because as simple particles they have very low terminal velocities and could potentially stay aloft for weeks. New data were collected to describe the fine particle size distributions of distal fallout samples collected soon after eruption. Although, about half of the mass of silicate particles produced in this eruption of ~1 km³ dense rock equivalent magma were finer than 62 µm in diameter, and although these particles were in a stratospheric cloud after eruption, almost all of these fine particles fell to the ground near (<300 km) the volcano in a day or two. Particles falling out from 70 to 300 km from the volcano are mostly <62 µm in diameter. The most plausible explanation for rapid fallout is that the fine ash nucleates ice in the convective cloud and initiates a process of meteorological precipitation that efficiently removes fine silicates. These observations are similar to other eruptions and we conclude that ice formation in convective volcanic clouds is part of an effective fine ash removal process that affects all or most volcanic clouds. The existence of pyroclastic flows and surges in the El Chichón eruption increased the overall proportion of fine silicates, probably by milling larger glassy pyroclasts.     

Strike-slip fault patterns on Europa: Obliquity or polar wander?

Variations in diurnal tidal stress due to Europa’s eccentric orbit have been considered as the driver of strike-slip motion along pre-existing faults, but obliquity and physical libration have not been taken into account. The first objective of this work is to examine the effects of obliquity on the predicted global pattern of fault slip directions based on a tidal-tectonic formation model. Our second objective is to test the hypothesis that incorporating obliquity can reconcile theory and observations without requiring polar wander, which was previously invoked to explain the mismatch found between the slip directions of 192 faults on Europa and the global pattern predicted using the eccentricity-only model. We compute predictions for individual, observed faults at their current latitude, longitude, and azimuth with four different tidal models: eccentricity only, eccentricity plus obliquity, eccentricity plus physical libration, and a combination of all three effects. We then determine whether longitude migration, presumably due to non-synchronous rotation, is indicated in observed faults by repeating the comparisons with and without obliquity, this time also allowing longitude translation. We find that a tidal model including an obliquity of 1.2°, along with longitude migration, can predict the slip directions of all observed features in the survey. However, all but four faults can be fit with only 1° of obliquity so the value we find may represent the maximum departure from a lower time-averaged obliquity value. Adding physical libration to the obliquity model improves the accuracy of predictions at the current locations of the faults, but fails to predict the slip directions of six faults and requires additional degrees of freedom. The obliquity model with longitude migration is therefore our preferred model. Although the polar wander interpretation cannot be ruled out from these results alone, the obliquity model accounts for all observations with a value consistent with theoretical expectations and cycloid modeling.     

A sedimentary record of the rise and fall of the metal industry in Bergslagen,south central Sweden

Detailed stratigraphic analyses of sediments deposited in Lake Botjärnen, a small boreal forest lake in the shield terrain of central Sweden, clearly reflect progressively increasing human impact on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems following settlement and establishment of an iron industry in the 17th century. Rising frequencies of pollen and spores from light-demanding plants provide evidence of extensive forest clearance for charcoal and timber production, which peaked in the early 20th century. An associated increase in catchment erosion is reflected by changing carbon and nitrogen elemental content and carbon–isotope composition of sediment organic matter and by increased magnetic susceptibility of the sediments. Records of air-borne pollutants (lead, zinc and sulphur) can be correlated to the development of local and regional mining and metal industry as inferred from historical accounts. Rapid recession of the iron industry led to re-forestation and recovery of the aquatic nutrient status to pre-industrial conditions over the past 100 years. The chronology of the sediment succession, which is based on ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs radionuclide data in combination with radiocarbon dating, is confirmed by historical lead pollution trends established for the region.     

Military uses of groundwater: a driver of innovation?

Military need has been a positive driver to the development of the modern day, and now mature, science of hydrogeology. The important synergy between geology and water supply was appreciated by military men in the mid-nineteenth century but the first real test of this learning only took place in the First World War. German, British and American geologists then mapped water resources and the potential for exploiting groundwater in Belgium and northern France. Technical innovations included deployment of rapid drilling techniques and the promotion of well screens for use in unconsolidated sediments. The mapping techniques were developed further during the Second World War when innovative remote mapping of enemy-occupied territory became an important planning tool to both Allied and German armies. Work in North Africa and other arid and semi-arid terrains promoted insight into the occurrence of groundwater in fresh-water aquifers little replenished by recharge. Mapping of hard rock basement-type environments in the islands of Jersey and Guernsey by German geologists was a concept new to the British Isles. Collectively, these varied initiatives provided part of the foundation for post-Second World War development of modern-day applied hydrogeology.     

A whole-basin, mass-balance approach to paleolimnology

Lake sediments record the flux of materials (nutrients, pollutants, particulates) through a lake system both qualitatively, as changes in the composition of geochemical and biological tracers, as well as quantitatively, through changes in their rate of burial. Burial rates provide a direct link to contemporary (neo-) limnological studies as well as management efforts aimed at load reductions, but are difficult to reconstruct accurately from single cores owing to the spatial and temporal variability of sediment deposition in most lakes. The accurate determination of whole-lake burial rates from analysis of multiple cores, though requiring more effort per lake, can help resolve such problems and improve our understanding of sediment heterogeneity at multiple scales. Partial solutions to these problems also include focusing corrections based on ²¹⁰Pb flux, co-evaluation of concentration profiles, trend analysis using multiple lakes, and trend replication based on a small number of cores from the same lake. Recent multi-core studies demonstrate that no single core site faithfully records the whole-lake time-resolved input of materials, but that as few as five well-placed cores can provide a reliable record of whole-lake sediment flux for morphometrically simple basins. Lake-wide sediment fluxes can be coupled with reconstructed outflow losses to calculate historical changes in watershed and atmospheric loading of nutrients, metals, and other constituents. The ability of paleolimnology to accurately assess the sedimentary flux and extend the period of reference into the distant past represents an important contribution to the understanding of biogeochemical processes and their response to human and natural disturbance.     

Modeling a major source of economic resilience to disasters: recapturing lost production

Terrorist attacks and natural disasters have potentially severe economic consequences in terms of property damage and business interruption. However, experience from the September 11 World Trade Center attack and other disasters indicates that the economy has a great deal of resilience. This refers to the ability to dampen the maximum potential economic output (business interruption) loss. One of the most prominent sources of resilience is the ability of businesses to reschedule, or recapture, lost production after the event. Although there have been applications of a fixed parameter recapture factor for each of several aggregated sectors of the economy, there has been little formal analysis of this resilience action. This study offers a theoretic framework for analyzing production rescheduling. It distinguishes the major conditions influencing two aspects that have previously been neglected: (1) the maximum time span over which the rescheduling can take place and (2) the likely decline of the maximum recapture as the business interruption increases. We divide the relevant time path into two periods after recovery. One is a function of a recaptured output path after recovery to the status of normal production. The other is a function for the maximum recaptured production, based on the recaptured output path. The recaptured output path function is assumed to follow a normal distribution function, and hence, total recaptured output follows the cumulative normal distribution function over time after productive capacity is restored. Also, we develop a new cumulative normal distribution function for interruption time duration, which is symmetric with respect to the output axis. This recapture function has unknown parameters. Empirical data on the recaptured amounts following an actual disaster can be used to estimate the parameters of this function using simulation methods.