Resource allocation for regional earthquake risk mitigation: a case study of Tehran,Iran

This paper presents a new optimization model to help cities in seismically active developing countries decide (1) How much to spend on pre-earthquake mitigation versus waiting until after an event and paying for reconstruction or simply not rebuilding damaged buildings? (2) Which buildings to mitigate and how? and (3) Which buildings to reconstruct and how? It extends previously developed optimization models to consider the particular issues that arise in such countries. First, the model allows for the possibility that some damaged buildings will not be reconstructed immediately and keeps track of any lost building inventory. Second, buildings can be mitigated to, or when damaged, reconstructed to, any appropriate structural type and seismic design level. Finally, the model objectives include minimizing the chance of an extremely high death toll in any one earthquake and minimizing the average annual death toll across earthquakes. The model is illustrated through a case study analysis for Tehran, Iran.     

A semi-implicit method for incompressible three-phase flow in porous media

In this paper, we present a semi-implicit method for the incompressible three-phase flow equations in two dimensions. In particular, a high-order discontinuous Galerkin spatial discretization is coupled with a backward Euler discretization in time. We consider a pressure-saturation formulation, decouple the pressure and saturation equations, and solve them sequentially while still keeping each equation implicit in its respective unknown. We present several numerical examples on both homogeneous and heterogeneous media, with varying permeability and porosity. Our results demonstrate the robustness of the scheme. In particular, no slope limiters are required and a relatively large time step may be taken.     

Development of a GIS-based catastrophe theory model (modified DRASTIC model) for groundwater vulnerability assessment

This study developed a new paradigm for groundwater vulnerability assessment by modifying the standard DRASTIC index (DI) model based on catastrophe theory. The developed paradigm was called the catastrophe theory-based DI (CDI) model. The proposed model was applied to assess groundwater vulnerability to pollution index (GVPI) in Perak Province, Malaysia. The area vulnerability index was modeled by considering the DRASTIC multiple vulnerability causative factors (VCFs) obtained from different data sources. The weights and ranking of the VCFs were computed by using the inner fuzzy membership mechanism of the CDI model. The estimated vulnerability index values of the CDI model were processed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment to produce a catastrophe theory–DRASTIC groundwater vulnerability to pollution index (CDGVPI) map, which demarcated the area into five vulnerability zones. The produced CDGVPI map was validated by applying the water quality status–vulnerability zone relationship (WVR) approach and the relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve method. The performance of the developed CDI model was compared with that of the standard DI model. The validation results of the WVR approach exhibits 89.29% prediction accuracy for the CDI model compared with 75% for the DI model. Meanwhile, the ROC validation results for the CDI and DI models are 88.8% and 78%, respectively. The GIS-based CDI model demonstrated better performance than the DI model. The GVPI maps produced in this study can be used for precise decision making process in environmental planning and groundwater management.     

Changes in the hydrography of Central California waters associated with the 1997–98 El Niño

Oceanographic conditions off Central California were monitored by means of a series of 13 hydrographic cruises between February 1997 and January 1999, which measured water properties along an oceanographic section perpendicular to the California Coast. The 1997–98 El Niño event was defined by higher than normal sea levels at Monterey, which began in June 1997, peaked in November 1997, and returned to normal in March 1998. The warming took place in two distinct periods. During June and July 1997, the sea level increased as a result of stronger than normal coastal warming below 200 dbars and within 100 km of the coast, which was associated with poleward flow of saltier waters. During this period, deeper (400–1000 dbar) waters between 150–200 km from shore were also warmed and became more saline. Subsequently, sea level continued to rise through January 1998, mostly as a result of the warming above 200 dbars although, after a brief period of cooling in September 1997, waters below 200 dbar were also warmer than normal during this period. This winter warm anomaly was also coastally trapped, extending 200 km from shore and was accompanied by cooler and fresher water in the offshore California current. In March and April 1998, sea level dropped quickly to normal levels and inshore waters were fresher and warmer than the previous spring and flowed southward.The warming was consistent with equatorial forcing of Central California waters via propagation of Kelvin or coastally-trapped waves. The observed change in heat content associated with the 1997–98 El Niño was the same as that observed during the previous seasonal cycle. The warming and freshening events were similar to events observed during the 1957–58 and 1982–83 El Niños.     

Raman spectra of methane hydrate up to 86 GPa

High-pressure Raman studies of methane hydrate were performed using a diamond anvil cell in the pressure range of 0.1–86 GPa at room temperature. Raman spectra of the methane molecules revealed that new softened intramolecular vibration mode of ν ₁ appeared at 17 GPa and that the splitting of vibration mode of ν ₃ occurred at 15 GPa. The appearance of these two modes indicates that an intermolecular attractive interaction increases between the methane molecules and the host water molecules and between the neighboring methane molecules. These interactions might result in the exceptional stability of a high-pressure structure, a filled ice Ih structure (FIIhS) for methane hydrate, up to 40 GPa. At 40 GPa, a clear change in the slope of the Raman shift versus pressure occurred, and above 40 GPa the Raman shift of the vibration modes increased monotonously up to 86 GPa. A previous XRD study showed that the FIIhS transformed into another new high-pressure structure at 40 GPa. The change in the Raman spectra at 40 GPa may be induced by the transition of the structure.     

Defining the geochemical baseline: a case of Hong Kong soils

A geochemical baseline provides the means to distinguish between the pedogenic origin and the anthropogenic origin of the trace element in the environmental compartments. We collected 271 soil samples representative of different parent rocks and soil types from the whole territory of Hong Kong and analyzed the composition of clay mineralogy and the contents of 15 chemical elements (Fe, Cd, As, etc.) for these samples. The baseline was predicted with the method of the normalization procedure combined with the relative cumulative frequency curve. The result indicated that Fe was the best reference element for the normalization procedure among the five potential reference elements (Fe, Al, Sc, Ti, and Mn), followed by Sc and Ti. A poor correlation was found between Sc, Ti, and Cu. The predicted baseline was much lower than the A-value of the Dutch List used usually in screening the polluted soil of Hong Kong, implying that the extent of heavy metal pollution might have been underestimated with respect to local lands. We also applied the cluster analysis to distinguish the geochemical associations of the trace elements due to its importance to the baseline. Approximately three major associations including the Fe–Mn-oxides related, Al oxides or Al-bearing-clay-mineralogy related and sulfide- related associations were observed from the dendrogram.     

SORPTION AND DESORPTION CHARACTERISTICS OF CADMIUM BY FOUR DIFFERENT SOILS IN NORTHEAST CHINA

1IN TR O D U C TIO NA s a persistentand toxic pollutant, cadm ium (C d) canresultin m any adverse health effects in a variety oftis-suesand organssuch asthe lung,kidney,urinary,blad-der,pancreas,breast and prostate (SA TA R U G etal.,2003).C adm ium in so…     

Effects of Microparameters on Macroparameters of Flat-Jointed Bonded-Particle Materials and Suggestions on Trial-and-Error Method

The aims of this paper are to analyze the effects of microparameters on macroparameters of flat-jointed bonded-particle materials of particle flow code in two dimensions (PFC2D) and improve the efficiency of trial-and-error method in calibration of microparameters. The trial-and-error method is always used to calibrate the microparameters for a PFC2D model, but it is time-consuming and empirical. To improve the efficiency of the trial-and-error method, the effects of microparameters on macroparameters need to be analyzed. By using the trial-and-error method, a desirable set of microparameters for a uniaxial compression PFC2D model (with a flat-joint contact model as the contact model) of limestone were calibrated to match the macroscopic properties obtained from laboratory tests. Based on the calibration set of microparameters, effects of microparameters on macroparameters of the PFC2D model were studied by the orthogonal design method. On this basis, a flowchart of calibrating microparameters via trial-and-error method was proposed. This flowchart was used to calibrate the microparameters of granite. The macroparameters and failure characteristics determined from numerical simulation were very similar to those of laboratory tests, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed flowchart.     

The concentration of molecular H2 and CH4 in the stratosphere

Stratospheric profiles of CH₄ and H₂ over eastern Texas have been derived up to 31 km altitude from air samples collected aboard a balloon and analyzed by gas chromatography. For H₂, contamination during flight and measurement presented a problem which has been resolved only recently. The earlier profiles require corrections which are rather large for the highest altitudes.The three profiles indicate an increase of the H₂ concentration in the lower stratosphere from about 0.5 p.p.m. per volume at the tropopause to about 0.8 p.p.m. at around 27 km altitude. Above that altitude the H₂ concentration decreases again. An air sample collected between 44 and 62 km by a rocket-borne cryogenic sampler had an H₂ concentration of 0.4 p.p.m.The five CH₄ profiles showed a decrease in CH₄ concentration with altitude generally with a steeper gradient directly above the tropopause and a weaker gradient at higher altitudes reaching 0.9 p.p.m. at 30 km altitude. The CH₄ concentration in the rocket sample was 0.25 p.p.m., in good agreement with the gradient obtained from the balloon samples.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Source parameters of seismic events potentially associated with damage in block 33/34 of the Kiirunavaara mine (Sweden)

Forty-six mining-induced seismic events with moment magnitude between ?1.2 and 2.1 that possibly caused damage were studied. The events occurred between 2008 and 2013 at mining level 850–1350 m in the Kiirunavaara Mine (Sweden). Hypocenter locations were refined using from 6 to 130 sensors at distances of up to 1400 m. The source parameters of the events were re-estimated using spectral analysis with a standard Brune model (slope ?2). The radiated energy for the studied events varied from 4.7 × 10^?1 to 3.8 × 10⁷ J, the source radii from 4 to 110 m, the apparent stress from 6.2 × 10² to 1.1 × 10⁶ Pa, energy ratio (E _s/E _p) from 1.2 to 126, and apparent volume from 1.8 × 10³ to 1.1 × 10⁷ m³. 90% of the events were located in the footwall, close to the ore contact. The events were classified as shear/fault slip (FS) or non-shear (NS) based on the E _s/E _p ratio (>10 or <10). Out of 46 events 15 events were classified as NS located almost in the whole range between 840 and 1360 m, including many events below the production. The rest 31 FS events were concentrated mostly around the production levels and slightly below them. The relationships between some source parameters and seismic moment/moment magnitude showed dependence on the type of the source mechanism. The energy and the apparent stress were found to be three times larger for FS events than for NS events.