Long-term effects of anthropogenic CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions simulated with a complex earth system model

A new complex earth system model consisting of an atmospheric general circulation model, an ocean general circulation model, a three-dimensional ice sheet model, a marine biogeochemistry model, and a dynamic vegetation model was used to study the long-term response to anthropogenic carbon emissions. The prescribed emissions follow estimates of past emissions for the period 1751–2000 and standard IPCC emission scenarios up to the year 2100. After 2100, an exponential decrease of the emissions was assumed. For each of the scenarios, a small ensemble of simulations was carried out. The North Atlantic overturning collapsed in the high emission scenario (A2) simulations. In the low emission scenario (B1), only a temporary weakening of the deep water formation in the North Atlantic is predicted. The moderate emission scenario (A1B) brings the system close to its bifurcation point, with three out of five runs leading to a collapsed North Atlantic overturning circulation. The atmospheric moisture transport predominantly contributes to the collapse of the deep water formation. In the simulations with collapsed deep water formation in the North Atlantic a substantial cooling over parts of the North Atlantic is simulated. Anthropogenic climate change substantially reduces the ability of land and ocean to sequester anthropogenic carbon. The simulated effect of a collapse of the deep water formation in the North Atlantic on the atmospheric CO₂ concentration turned out to be relatively small. The volume of the Greenland ice sheet is reduced, but its contribution to global mean sea level is almost counterbalanced by the growth of the Antarctic ice sheet due to enhanced snowfall. The modifications of the high latitude freshwater input due to the simulated changes in mass balance of the ice sheet are one order of magnitude smaller than the changes due to atmospheric moisture transport. After the year 3000, the global mean surface temperature is predicted to be almost constant due to the compensating effects of decreasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations due to oceanic uptake and delayed response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations before.     

Climate and climate change in western canada as simulated by the Canadian regional climate model

Abstract

A þrst climate simulation performed with the novel Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) is presented. The CRCM is based on fully elastic non‐hydrostatic þeld equations, which are solved with an efþcient semi‐implicit semi‐Lagrangian (SISL) marching algorithm, and on the parametrization package of subgrid‐scale physical effects of the second‐generation Canadian Global Climate Model (GCMII). Two 5‐year integrations of the CRCM nested with GCMII simulated data as lateral boundary conditions are made for conditions corresponding to current and doubled CO₂ scenarios. For these simulations the CRCM used a grid size of 45 km on a polar‐stereographic projection, 20 scaled‐height levels and a time step of 15 min; the nesting GCMII has a spectral truncation of T32, 10 hybrid‐pressure levels and a time step of 20 min. These simulations serve to document: (1) the suitability of the SISL numerical scheme for regional climate modelling, (2) the use of GCMII physics at much higher resolution than in the nesting model, (3) the ability of the CRCM to add realistic regional‐scale climate information to global model simulations, and (4) the climate of the CRCM compared to that of GCMII under two greenhouse gases (GHG) scenarios.     

Eruptive history of the Colima volcanic complex (Mexico)

The evolution of the Colima volcanic complex can be divided into successive periods characterized by different dynamic and magmatic processes: emission of andesitic to dacitic lava flows, acid-ash and pumice-flow deposits, fallback nuées ardentes leading to pyroclastic flows with heterogeneous magma, plinian air-fall deposits, scoriae cones of alkaline and calc-alkaline nature. Four caldera-forming events, resulting either from major ignimbrite outbursts or Mount St. Helens-type eruptions, separate the main stages of development of the complex from the building of an ancient shield volcano (25 × 30 km wide) up to two summit cones, Nevado and Fuego.The oldest caldera, C1 (7–8 km wide), related to the pouring out of dacitic ash flows, marks the transition between two periods of activity in the primitive edifice called Nevado I: the first one, which is at least 0.6 m.y. old, was mainly andesitic and effusive, whereas the second one was characterized by extrusion of domes and related pyroclastic products. A small summit caldera, C2 (3–3.5 km wide), ended the evolution of Nevado I.Two modern volcanoes then began to grow. The building of the Nevado II started about 200,000 y. ago. It settled into the C2 caldera and partially overflowed it. The other volcano, here called Paleofuego, was progressively built on the southern side of the former Nevado I. Some of its flows are 50,000 y. old, but the age of its first outbursts is not known. However, it is younger than Nevado II. These two modern volcanoes had similar evolutions. Each of them was affected by a huge Mount St. Helens-type (or Bezymianny-type) event, 10,000 y. ago for the Paleofuego, and hardly older for the Nevado II. The landslides were responsible for two horseshoe-shaped avalanche calderas, C3 (Nevado) and C4 (Paleofuego), each 4–5 km wide, opening towards the east and the south. In both cases, the activity following these events was highly explosive and produced thick air-fall deposits around the summit craters.The Nevado III, formed by thick andesitic flows, is located close to the southwestern rim of the C3 caldera. It was a small and short-lived cone. Volcan de Fuego, located at the center of the C4 caldera, is nearly 1500 m high. Its activity is characterized by an alternation of long stages of growth by flows and short destructive episodes related to violent outbursts producing pyroclastic flows with heterogeneous magma and plinian air falls.The evolution of the primitive volcano followed a similar pattern leading to formation of C1 and then C2. The analogy between the evolutions of the two modern volcanoes (Nevado II–III; Paleofuego-Fuego) is described. Their vicinity and their contemporaneous growth pose the problem of the existence of a single reservoir, or two independent magmatic chambers, after the evolution of a common structure represented by the primitive volcano.     

The retrieval of cloud microphysical properties using satellite measurements and an in situ database

By combining AVHRR data from the NOAA satellites with information from a database of in situ measurements, large-scale maps can be generated of the microphysical parameters most immediately significant for the modelling of global circulation and climate. From the satellite data, the clouds can be classified into cumuliform, stratiform and cirrus classes and then into further sub-classes by cloud top temperature. At the same time a database of in situ measurements made by research aircraft is classified into the same sub-classes and a statistical analysis is used to derive relationships between the sub-classes and the cloud microphysical properties. These two analyses are then linked to give estimates of the microphysical properties of the satellite observed clouds. Examples are given of the application of this technique to derive maps of the probability of occurrence of precipitating clouds and of precipitating water content derived from a case study within the International Cirrus Experiment (ICE) held in 1989 over the North Sea.     

Assessing the potential of reservoir outflow management to reduce sedimentation using continuous turbidity monitoring and reservoir modelling

In‐stream sensors are increasingly deployed as part of ambient water quality‐monitoring networks. Temporally dense data from these networks can be used to better understand the transport of constituents through streams, lakes or reservoirs. Data from existing, continuously recording in‐stream flow and water quality monitoring stations were coupled with the two‐dimensional hydrodynamic CE‐QUAL‐W2 model to assess the potential of altered reservoir outflow management to reduce sediment trapping in John Redmond Reservoir, located in east‐central Kansas. Monitoring stations upstream and downstream from the reservoir were used to estimate 5.6 million metric tons of sediment transported to John Redmond Reservoir from 2007 through 2010, 88% of which was trapped within the reservoir. The two‐dimensional model was used to estimate the residence time of 55 equal‐volume releases from the reservoir; sediment trapping for these releases varied from 48% to 97%. Smaller trapping efficiencies were observed when the reservoir was maintained near the normal operating capacity (relative to higher flood pool levels) and when average residence times were relatively short. An idealized, alternative outflow management scenario was constructed, which minimized reservoir elevations and the length of time water was in the reservoir, while continuing to meet downstream flood control end points identified in the reservoir water control manual. The alternative scenario is projected to reduce sediment trapping in the reservoir by approximately 3%, preventing approximately 45 000 metric tons of sediment from being deposited within the reservoir annually. This article presents an approach to quantify the potential of reservoir management using existing in‐stream data; actual management decisions need to consider the effects on other reservoir benefits, such as downstream flood control and aquatic life. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Oxygen isotopic constraints on the origin of Mg-rich olivines from chondritic meteorites

Chondrules are the major high temperature components of chondritic meteorites which accreted a few millions years after the oldest solids of the solar system, the calcium–aluminum-rich inclusions, were condensed from the nebula gas. Chondrules formed during brief heating events by incomplete melting of solid dust precursors in the protoplanetary disk. Petrographic, compositional and isotopic arguments allowed the identification of metal-bearing Mg-rich olivine aggregates among the precursors of magnesian type I chondrules. Two very different settings can be considered for the formation of these Mg-rich olivines: either a nebular setting corresponding mostly to condensation–evaporation processes in the nebular gas or a planetary setting corresponding mostly to differentiation processes in a planetesimal. An ion microprobe survey of Mg-rich olivines of a set of type I chondrules and isolated olivines from unequilibrated ordinary chondrites and carbonaceous chondrites revealed the existence of several modes in the distribution of the ?¹⁷O values and the presence of a large range of mass fractionation (several ‰) within each mode. The chemistry and the oxygen isotopic compositions indicate that Mg-rich olivines are unlikely to be of nebular origin (i.e., solar nebula condensates) but are more likely debris of broken differentiated planetesimals (each of them being characterized by a given ?¹⁷O). Mg-rich olivines could have crystallized from magma ocean-like environments on partially molten planetesimals undergoing metal–silicate differentiation processes. Considering the very old age of chondrules, Mg-rich olivine grains or aggregates might be considered as millimeter-sized fragments from disrupted first-generation differentiated planetesimals. Finally, the finding of only a small number of discrete ?¹⁷O modes for Mg-rich olivines grains or aggregates in a given chondrite suggests that these shattered fragments have not been efficiently mixed in the disk and/or that chondrite formation occurred in the first vicinity of the breakup of these planetary bodies.     

EM and GPR investigations of contaminant spread around the Hoc Mon waste site,Vietnam

This paper is presenting the results from near-surface geophysical surveys near the waste site of Hoc Mon in southern Vietnam where leachate contamination has been recognized at the surface. Using EM and GPR surveys, we were able to determine the lateral extent of a contaminated area of high electrical conductivity and have identified channels that concentrate the contaminant flow. The simple relationship between the electrical resistivity and the leachate concentration is suggested and estimated the in situ leachate concentration from the inversion of the EM data; values are as high as 40%. Thanks to a permeability barrier leachate flow is confined to the shallow subsurface, making it easier to apply possible site remediation projects.     

Estimating uncertainty associated with water stages from a single SAR image

It is the goal of remote sensing to infer information about objects or a natural process from a remote location. This invokes that uncertainty in measurement should be viewed as central to remote sensing. In this study, the uncertainty associated with water stages derived from a single SAR image for the Alzette (G.D. of Luxembourg) 2003 flood is assessed using a stepped GLUE procedure. Main uncertain input factors to the SAR processing chain for estimating water stages include geolocation accuracy, spatial filter window size, image thresholding value, DEM vertical precision and the number of river cross sections at which water stages are estimated. Initial results show that even with plausible parameter values uncertainty in water stages over the entire river reach is 2.8 m on average. Adding spatially distributed field water stages to the GLUE analysis following a one-at-a-time approach helps to considerably reduce SAR water stage uncertainty (0.6 m on average) thereby identifying appropriate value ranges for each uncertain SAR water stage processing factor. For the GLUE analysis a Nash-like efficiency criterion adapted to spatial data is proposed whereby acceptable SAR model simulations are required to outperform a simpler regression model based on the field-surveyed average river bed gradient. Weighted CDFs for all factors based on the proposed efficiency criterion allow the generation of reliable uncertainty quantile ranges and 2D maps that show the uncertainty associated with SAR-derived water stages. The stepped GLUE procedure demonstrated that not all field data collected are necessary to achieve maximum constraining. A possible efficient way to decide on relevant locations at which to sample in the field is proposed. It is also suggested that the resulting uncertainty ranges and flood extent or depth maps may be used to evaluate 1D or 2D flood inundation models in terms of water stages, depths or extents. For this, the extended GLUE approach, which copes with the presence of uncertainty in the observed data, may be adopted.