Deterministic sensitivity analysis for a model for flow in porous media

A deterministic method for sensitivity analysis is developed and applied to a mathematical model for the simulation of flow in porous media. The method is based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the Jacobian matrix of the model. It is a local approach to sensitivity analysis providing a hierarchical classification of the directions in both the input space and of those in the output space reflecting the degree of sensitiveness of the latter to the former. Its low computational cost, in comparison with that of statistical approaches, allows the study of the variability of the results of the sensitivity analysis due to the variations of the input parameters of the model, and thus it can provide a quality criterion for the validity of more classical probabilistic global approaches. For the example treated here, however, this variability is weak, and deterministic and statistical methods yield similar sensitivity results.     

Decoupling of arsenic and iron release from ferrihydrite suspension under reducing conditions: a biogeochemical model

High levels of arsenic in groundwater and drinking water are a major health problem. Although the processes controlling the release of As are still not well known, the reductive dissolution of As-rich Fe oxyhydroxides has so far been a favorite hypothesis. Decoupling between arsenic and iron redox transformations has been experimentally demonstrated, but not quantitatively interpreted. Here, we report on incubation batch experiments run with As(V) sorbed on, or co-precipitated with, 2-line ferrihydrite. The biotic and abiotic processes of As release were investigated by using wet chemistry, X-ray diffraction, X-ray absorption and genomic techniques. The incubation experiments were carried out with a phosphate-rich growth medium and a community of Fe(III)-reducing bacteria under strict anoxic conditions for two months. During the first month, the release of Fe(II) in the aqueous phase amounted to only 3% to 10% of the total initial solid Fe concentration, whilst the total aqueous As remained almost constant after an initial exchange with phosphate ions. During the second month, the aqueous Fe(II) concentration remained constant, or even decreased, whereas the total quantity of As released to the solution accounted for 14% to 45% of the total initial solid As concentration. At the end of the incubation, the aqueous-phase arsenic was present predominately as As(III) whilst X-ray absorption spectroscopy indicated that more than 70% of the solid-phase arsenic was present as As(V). X-ray diffraction revealed vivianite Fe(II)₃(PO₄)₂.8H₂O in some of the experiments. A biogeochemical model was then developed to simulate these aqueous- and solid-phase results. The two main conclusions drawn from the model are that (1) As(V) is not reduced during the first incubation month with high Eh values, but rather re-adsorbed onto the ferrihydrite surface, and this state remains until arsenic reduction is energetically more favorable than iron reduction, and (2) the release of As during the second month is due to its reduction to the more weakly adsorbed As(III) which cannot compete against carbonate ions for sorption onto ferrihydrite. The model was also successfully applied to recent experimental results on the release of arsenic from Bengal delta sediments.     

Une dépression piézométrique naturelle en hausse au Sahel (Sud-Ouest du Niger)A rising piezometric depression in the Sahel (southwestern Niger)

In southwest Niger, the Continental Terminal water table displays a natural hollow shape about 10 m in depth over an area of 4000 km². A 10-year survey of this hollow aquifer has shown that current recharge is above $\text{20 }\text{mm}\text{yr}{}^{\mathrm{?1}}$. The water table has risen continuously since the 1950–1960s as a result of land clearance. This shows a disequilibrium in the aquifer balance. The long-term recharge rate is estimated by radioisotopes to be around $\text{1 }\text{mm}\text{yr}{}^{\mathrm{?1}}$. This figure fits with the only possible origin of the piezometric depression, i.e. evapotranspiration losses in its centre. To cite this article: G. Favreau et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 395–401.     

Variabilité isotopique des précipitations sahéliennes à différentes échelles de temps à Niamey (Niger) entre 1992 et 1999 : implication climatiqueIsotopic variability of Sahelian rainfall at different time steps in Niamey (Niger, 1992–1999): climatic implications

The isotopic content of rainfall was measured in Niamey (Niger) over a period of eight years (1992–1999). Seasonal distribution of rainy events depends on the monsoon movement over the region. At the beginning and at the end of the rainy season, low rainfall, high temperatures and low relative humidity favour isotopic enrichment. In the middle of the rainy season, heavy rainfall, low temperatures and relative humidity close to saturation lead to isotopically depleted contents because of the mass effect; moreover, in the case of low rainfall, marked vertical convective development favours high altitude condensation. How far the Intertropical Front moves north, determines the quality of the rainy season and influences the isotopic contents. Thus the isotopic contents of rainfall are good climatic indicators. To cite this article: J.-D. Taupin et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 43–50     

Accounting for uncertainties and time preference in economic analysis of tackling climate change through forestry and selected policy implications for Scotland and Ukraine

The paper discusses the development of economic techniques for dealing with uncertainties in economic analysis of planting trees to mitigate climatic change. In consideration of uncertainty, time preference and intergenerational equity, the traditional cost-benefit analysis framework is challenged with regard to the discounting/non-discounting of carbon uptake benefits, and because it usually uses a constant and positive discount rate. We investigate the influence of various discounting protocols on the outputs of economic analysis. The idea of using the declining discount rate is also considered. Several numerical examples dealing with the analysis of afforestation for carbon sequestration in Scotland and Ukraine are provided. We show that the choice of discounting protocols have a considerable influence on the results of economic analysis, and therefore, on the decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation strategies. The paper concludes with some innovative insights on accounting for uncertainties and time preference in tackling climate change through forestry, several climate policy implications of dealing with uncertainties, and a brief discussion of what the use of different discounting protocols might imply for decision making.     

Wave climate variability in the North-East Atlantic Ocean over the last six decades

Ocean surface gravity waves play a major role in many engineering and environmental problems, both in the open ocean and in coastal zones. Therefore, it is essential to improve our knowledge on spatial and temporal variability of wave climate. This study aims at investigating this variability in the North-East Atlantic Ocean (25°W–0°W and 30°N–60° N), using a 57-year hindcast (1953–2009) obtained with a spectral wave model forced with reanalysis wind fields. The hindcast analysis reveals firstly strong seasonal fluctuations of wave climate, with winters characterized by large and long-period waves of mean direction spreading from south-west to north-west, and summers characterized by smaller and shorter-period waves originating from norther directions. From northern (55°N) to southern (35°N) latitudes, the significant wave height (Hs) decreases by roughly 40%, the mean wave direction (Mwd) rotates clockwise by about 25% while the peak period (Tp) only grows by 5%. These three parameters also exhibit a strong inter-annual variability, particularly when winter-means (from 1st of December to 1st of April) are considered. Linear trend analysis over the studied period shows spatially variable long-term trends, with a significant increase of Hs (up to 0.02 m yr^?1) and a counterclockwise shift of Mwd (up to ?0.1° yr^?1) at northern latitude, contrasting with a fairly constant trend for Hs and a clockwise shift of Mwd (up to +0.15° yr^?1) at southern latitudes. Long-term trends of Tp are less significant, with still a slight increase in the north-eastern part of the study area (up to +0.01 s yr^?1). Eventually, a comparison between the inter-annual variability of the winter-means of the three selected wave parameters and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reveals: (1) a strong positive correlation between Hs and the NAO index at northern latitudes (correlation coefficient up to R = 0.91) and a significant negative correlation at southern latitudes (up to R = ?0.6); (2) no significant correlation for Mwd north of 40°N and a clear positive correlation southward of 40°N (up to R = 0.8) and (3) a northward increasing correlation for Tp (up to R = 0.8). Long-term trends for Hs, Mwd and Tp are finally explained by a significant increase in the NAO index over the studied period.     

Dynamic data integration for structural modeling: model screening approach using a distance-based model parameterization

This paper proposes a novel history-matching method where reservoir structure is inverted from dynamic fluid flow response. The proposed workflow consists of searching for models that match production history from a large set of prior structural model realizations. This prior set represents the reservoir structural uncertainty because of interpretation uncertainty on seismic sections. To make such a search effective, we introduce a parameter space defined with a “similarity distance” for accommodating this large set of realizations. The inverse solutions are found using a stochastic search method. Realistic reservoir examples are presented to prove the applicability of the proposed method.