Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling.     

The Holocene Secche di Lazzaro phreatomagmatic succession (Stromboli,Italy): evidence of pyroclastic density current origin deduced by facies analysis and AMS flow directions

The edifice of Stromboli volcano gravitationally collapsed several times during its volcanic history (>100 ka–present). The largest Holocene event occurred during the final stage of the Neostromboli activity (∼13–5 ka), and was accompanied by the emplacement of phreatomagmatic and lahar deposits, known as the Secche di Lazzaro succession. A stratigraphic and paleomagnetic study of the Secche di Lazzaro deposits allows the interpretation of the emplacement and the eruptive processes. We identify three main units within the succession that correspond to changing eruption conditions. The lower unit (UA) consists of accretionary lapilli-rich, thinly bedded, parallel- to cross-stratified ash deposits, interpreted to indicate the early stages of the eruption and emplacement of dilute pyroclastic density currents. Upward, the second unit (UB) of the deposit is more massive and the beds thicker, indicating an increase in the sedimentation rate from pyroclastic density currents. The upper unit (UC) caps the succession with thick, immediately post-eruptive lahars, which reworked ash deposited on the volcano’s slope. Flow directions obtained by Anisotropy of Magnetic Susceptibility (AMS) analysis of the basal bed of UA at the type locality suggest a provenance of pyroclastic currents from the sea. This is interpreted to be related to the initial base-surges associated with water–magma interaction that occurred immediately after the lateral collapse, which wrapped around the shoulder of the sector collapse scar. Upward in the stratigraphy (upper beds of UA and UB) paleoflow directions change and show a provenance from the summit vent, probably related to the multiple collapses of a vertical, pulsatory eruptive column.     

Performance of masonry buildings during the Emilia 2012 earthquake

The earthquake sequence started on May \(20\) th 2012 in Emilia (Italy) affected a region where masonry constructions represent a large part of the existing building stock and the construction of new modern masonry buildings is a common practice. The paper is focused on the performance of common architectural configurations, typical for residential or business use. The large majority of old masonry buildings is made of fired clay bricks. The seismic performance of these buildings is particularly interesting since major past earthquakes in Italy affected areas with mainly stone masonry structures. Apart from examples showing systematic or peculiar structural deficiencies governing the vulnerability of several buildings, the overall seismic performance of these structures to repeated shaking, with PGA as large as 0.25–0.3 g was rather good, despite the major part of them were only conceived for carrying vertical loads. In fact, seismic design is mandatory in the area only since 2003. Modern low-rise masonry buildings erected after this date and incorporating seismic design and proper detailing resulted in most cases practically undamaged. The examples reported in the paper allow an evaluation of the superior performance of seismically designed modern masonry buildings in comparison to older ones.     

Impact of Poroelastic Response of Sandstones on Geothermal Power Production

During geothermal power production using a borehole doublet consisting of a production and injection well, the reservoir conditions such as permeability k, porosity φ and Skempton coefficient B at the geothermal research site Gross Schoenebeck/Germany will change. Besides a temperature decrease at the injection well and a change of the chemical equilibrium, also the pore pressure p _p will vary in a range of approximately 44 MPa ± 10 MPa in our reservoir at ?3850 to ?4258 m depth. This leads to a poroelastic response of the reservoir rocks depending on effective pressure p _eff (difference between mean stress and pore pressure), resulting in a change in permeability k, porosity φ and the poroelastic parameter Skempton coefficient B. Hence, we investigated the effective pressure dependency of Flechtinger sandstone, an outcropping equivalent of the reservoir rock via laboratory experiments. The permeability decreased by 21% at an effective pressure range from 3 to 30 MPa, the porosity decreased by 11% (p _eff = 6 to 65 MPa) and the Skempton coefficient decreased by 24% (p _eff = 4 to 25 MPa). We will show which mechanisms lead to the change of the mentioned hydraulic and poroelastic parameters and the influence of these changes on the productivity of the reservoir. The most significant changes occur at low effective pressures until 15 to 20 MPa. For our in situ reservoir conditions p _eff = 43 MPa a change of 10 MPa effective pressure will result in a change in matrix permeability of less than 4% and in matrix porosity of less than 2%. Besides natural fracture systems, fault zones and induced hydraulic fractures, the rock matrix its only one part of geothermal systems. All components can be influenced by pressure, temperature and chemical reactions. Therefore, the determined small poroelastic response of rock matrix does not significantly influence the sustainability of the geothermal reservoir.     

Fractal analysis of mingled/mixed magmas: an example from the Upper Pollara eruption (Salina Island, southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy)

Upper Pollara eruption products (13 ka, Salina Island, Italy) include both homogeneous and heterogeneous pumices resulting from mixing/mingling processes between an HK andesite and a high-SiO₂ rhyolite. Representative samples of heterogeneous pumices are collected and analyzed in order to check the correspondence between glass composition and morphological features of the mingling/mixing structures. Image analysis techniques are applied and eight grey color ranges (classes) are extracted from high-resolution scans of pumice. Class 1 (lighter colors) and class 8 (darker colors) show end-member glass compositions, i.e. HK andesite and high-SiO₂ rhyolite, respectively. These two classes show spot- to cluster-like morphological structures. Intermediate classes show an HK dacitic to rhyolitic composition and a banding- to fold-like morphology. Fractal analysis by box-counting of the boundary pattern of eight grey classified images is performed over a length scale of 0.028–1.8 cm. Fractal dimension D is between 1.01 and 1.84. Coupled fractal analysis and geochemical data reveal that D increases as the degree of magma interaction (homogenization) increases. This feature well fits the results from numerical models on the convective mixing of fluids driven by thermal convection. We conclude that the increase of D observed in the Upper Pollara samples reflects the transition from fractal mixing to homogenization. End-member magmas (HK andesite and high-SiO₂ rhyolite) represent isolated mixing regions, while homogenized magmas represent active mixing regions. In the analyzed pumices, isolated and active mixing regions coexist at scales between 10⁻⁴ and 10⁻² m. Morphological and compositional features of the Upper Pollara pumices result from turbulence.     

A note on maar eruption energetics: current models and their application

Hydromagmatic eruptions convert thermal into mechanical energy via the expansion of ground- and/or surface-water. Several models address the energetics of these eruptions based on different physical-volcanological approaches. Here we test different models with two case studies in the Colli Albani Volcanic District (central Italy): the monogenetic Prata Porci and the polygenetic Albano maars. Test results are mutually consistent, and show cumulative mechanical energy releases on the order of 10¹⁵–10¹⁷ J for single maars. The fraction of thermal energy turned into mechanical ranges from 0.45 (as calculated from the theoretical maximum mechanical energy), through 0.1 (calculated from country rock fragmentation, crater formation and ballistic ejection), to 0.03 (derived from magma fragmentation by thermohydraulic explosions). It appears that the energy released during the most intense hydromagmatic events may account for a dominant fraction of the total mechanical energy released during the whole maar eruptive histories. Finally, we consider the role of magmatic explosive activity intervening during maar eruptions in causing departures from predictions of the models evaluated.     

Generic precursors to coastal earthquakes: Inferences from Denali fault earthquake

Recent research has shown evidence of strong coupling between the atmosphere and lithosphere in coastal regions, associating abnormal atmospheric phenomena to the occurrence of strong earthquakes. Surface latent heat flux (SLHF), total column water vapor (CWV), relative humidity (RH) and total ozone column (TOC), analyzed over the epicentral region of the Denali fault earthquake of November 3, 2002, exhibit anomalous behavior that could be related to the earthquake preparatory process and its occurrence. The complementary nature of the parameters provides strong support that the anomalous values were driven by lithospheric processes, rather than other atmospheric phenomena. Due to the wide availability of remote sensing observations of atmospheric parameters, the detection of anomalies can be used to mitigate the earthquake risks.     

Subsidence due to crack closure and depressurization of hydrothermal systems: a case study from Mt Epomeo (Ischia Island,Italy)

Levelling surveys carried out between 1990 and 2003 on the Mt Epomeo resurgent block (Ischia Island) record negative dislocations on its northern and southern flanks with a maximum subsidence rate of 1.27 cm yr⁻¹. This deformation is not associated with the cooling, crystallization or lateral drainage of magma and cannot be explained by a pressure point or prolate ellipsoid source. Results from dislocation models and the available structural and geochemical information indicate that the subsidence is due to crack closure processes along two main ENE–WSW and E–W preexisting faults, which represent the preferred pathway of CO₂ degassing from the hydrothermal system located beneath Mt Epomeo. The monitoring of the dislocations and CO₂ flux along these faults could give useful information on the dynamics of the hydrothermal system.     

The ecological implications of a Yakutian mammoth's last meal

Part of a large male woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) was preserved in permafrost in northern Yakutia. It was radiocarbon dated to ca. 18,500 ¹⁴C yr BP (ca. 22,500 cal yr BP). Dung from the lower intestine was subjected to a multiproxy array of microscopic, chemical, and molecular techniques to reconstruct the diet, the season of death, and the paleoenvironment. Pollen and plant macro-remains showed that grasses and sedges were the main food, with considerable amounts of dwarf willow twigs and a variety of herbs and mosses. Analyses of 110-bp fragments of the plastid rbcL gene amplified from DNA and of organic compounds supplemented the microscopic identifications. Fruit-bodies of dung-inhabiting Ascomycete fungi which develop after at least one week of exposure to air were found inside the intestine. Therefore the mammoth had eaten dung. It was probably mammoth dung as no bile acids were detected among the fecal biomarkers analysed. The plant assemblage and the presence of the first spring vessels of terminal tree-rings of dwarf willows indicated that the animal died in early spring. The mammoth lived in extensive cold treeless grassland vegetation interspersed with wetter, more productive meadows. The study demonstrated the paleoecological potential of several biochemical analytical techniques.     

Colonisers of the dark: biostalactite‐associated metazoans from “lu Lampiùne” submarine cave (Apulia,Mediterranean Sea)

Metazoan/microbial bioconstructions, or biostalactites (BSTs), discovered in submarine caves of Apulia c. 20 years ago—and later found in several shallow‐water Mediterranean caves—are receiving increasing attention in the last years. Examination of a single BST from the “lu Lampiùne” cave (Apulia), at the limit between the Adriatic and the Ionian seas, has been addressed for the first time in this paper. The BST started growing at c. 6,000 years ago with a rapid accretion of large‐sized serpulids (Protula), slowing down since about 3,000–4,000 years ago with a shift in main bioconstructors, probably caused by environmental changes. The present‐day community on the outer BST surface is dominated by skeletonised epibionts, mostly small‐sized serpulids, bryozoans and foraminifers, which contribute carbonate to the BST growth, by encrusting sponges, and by a few endobionts, including boring bivalves and insinuating sponges. New data remarkably increase biodiversity known for the “lu Lampiùne” cave and the cave habitat in the region. Thirty‐five taxa (16 bryozoans, 10 serpulids, 3 brachiopods, 2 foraminifers, 2 sponges, 1 bivalve and 1 cirriped) are recorded for the first time from Apulian marine caves, highlighting the need for further research in the area. In addition, the BST‐associated community seems to differ from those of individual BSTs from other Mediterranean caves, revealing the individuality of these communities.