Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980�C2010 period

Several different inventories of global and regional anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions are assessed for the 1980?C2010 period. The species considered in this study are carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and black carbon. The inventories considered include the ACCMIP historical emissions developed in support of the simulations for the IPCC AR5 assessment. Emissions for 2005 and 2010 from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are also included. Large discrepancies between the global and regional emissions are identified, which shows that there is still no consensus on the best estimates for surface emissions of atmospheric compounds. At the global scale, anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO_x and SO₂ show the best agreement for most years, although agreement does not necessarily mean that uncertainty is low. The agreement is low for BC emissions, particularly in the period prior to 2000. The best consensus is for NO_x emissions for all periods and all regions, except for China, where emissions in 1980 and 1990 need to be better defined. Emissions of CO need better quantification in the USA and India for all periods; in Central Europe, the evolution of emissions during the past two decades needs to be better determined. The agreement between the different SO₂ emissions datasets is rather good for the USA, but better quantification is needed elsewhere, particularly for Central Europe, India and China. The comparisons performed in this study show that the use of RCP8.5 for the extension of the ACCMIP inventory beyond 2000 is reasonable, until more global or regional estimates become available. Concerning biomass burning emissions, most inventories agree within 50?C80%, depending on the year and season. The large differences between biomass burning inventories are due to differences in the estimates of burned areas from the different available products, as well as in the amount of biomass burned.     

Impact of Poroelastic Response of Sandstones on Geothermal Power Production

During geothermal power production using a borehole doublet consisting of a production and injection well, the reservoir conditions such as permeability k, porosity φ and Skempton coefficient B at the geothermal research site Gross Schoenebeck/Germany will change. Besides a temperature decrease at the injection well and a change of the chemical equilibrium, also the pore pressure p _p will vary in a range of approximately 44 MPa ± 10 MPa in our reservoir at ?3850 to ?4258 m depth. This leads to a poroelastic response of the reservoir rocks depending on effective pressure p _eff (difference between mean stress and pore pressure), resulting in a change in permeability k, porosity φ and the poroelastic parameter Skempton coefficient B. Hence, we investigated the effective pressure dependency of Flechtinger sandstone, an outcropping equivalent of the reservoir rock via laboratory experiments. The permeability decreased by 21% at an effective pressure range from 3 to 30 MPa, the porosity decreased by 11% (p _eff = 6 to 65 MPa) and the Skempton coefficient decreased by 24% (p _eff = 4 to 25 MPa). We will show which mechanisms lead to the change of the mentioned hydraulic and poroelastic parameters and the influence of these changes on the productivity of the reservoir. The most significant changes occur at low effective pressures until 15 to 20 MPa. For our in situ reservoir conditions p _eff = 43 MPa a change of 10 MPa effective pressure will result in a change in matrix permeability of less than 4% and in matrix porosity of less than 2%. Besides natural fracture systems, fault zones and induced hydraulic fractures, the rock matrix its only one part of geothermal systems. All components can be influenced by pressure, temperature and chemical reactions. Therefore, the determined small poroelastic response of rock matrix does not significantly influence the sustainability of the geothermal reservoir.     

An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.     

New unspiked K–Ar ages of volcanic rocks of the central and western sector of the Aeolian Islands: reconstruction of the volcanic stages

A geochronological study of the Filicudi, Salina, Lipari and Vulcano Islands (Aeolian Archipelago) using the unspiked potassium–argon technique provides new age data which, combined with stratigraphic correlation, better constrain the temporal evolution of volcanism. The unspiked K–Ar age of the oldest exposed lavas on Filicudi, 219±5 ka, is significantly younger than the previous estimation of 1.02 Ma. In the general context of Aeolian volcanism, this new date suggests that the volcanism of the western sector of the Aeolian Archipelago is younger than previously thought. Geochronological data point out on the rapid transition from calc–alkaline to potassic volcanism. The distribution of the K–Ar ages within the Salina–Lipari–Vulcano group shows that the volcanism started on Lipari and propagated over time northward on Salina and southward on Vulcano. Geochronological and geophysical data suggest that the onset of volcanism in the central sector of the Aeolian Arc may be due to a mantle upwelling structure located below Lipari. A change in the style of the eruptions occurred in the Salina–Lipari–Vulcano system at about 100 ka from the present. Low-energy magmatic eruptions occurred between 188 and about 100 ka. From about 100 ka to the present, higher-energy eruptions and low-energy events due to magma–water interaction also occurred. This change in the style of activity, together with the appearance of evolved products (i.e. rhyolites) during the last 50 ka, is consistent with the formation of magmatic reservoirs located at shallower depth with respect to those of the 188–100-ka period. The new geochronological data and available petrological models reveal that a change in the deep source of the primary magmas occurred in a relatively short time interval.     

A note on maar eruption energetics: current models and their application

Hydromagmatic eruptions convert thermal into mechanical energy via the expansion of ground- and/or surface-water. Several models address the energetics of these eruptions based on different physical-volcanological approaches. Here we test different models with two case studies in the Colli Albani Volcanic District (central Italy): the monogenetic Prata Porci and the polygenetic Albano maars. Test results are mutually consistent, and show cumulative mechanical energy releases on the order of 10¹⁵–10¹⁷ J for single maars. The fraction of thermal energy turned into mechanical ranges from 0.45 (as calculated from the theoretical maximum mechanical energy), through 0.1 (calculated from country rock fragmentation, crater formation and ballistic ejection), to 0.03 (derived from magma fragmentation by thermohydraulic explosions). It appears that the energy released during the most intense hydromagmatic events may account for a dominant fraction of the total mechanical energy released during the whole maar eruptive histories. Finally, we consider the role of magmatic explosive activity intervening during maar eruptions in causing departures from predictions of the models evaluated.     

Cretaceous deformation of the southern Central Andes: synorogenic growth strata in the Neuquén Group (35° 30′–37° S)

The Neuquén Group is an Upper Cretaceous continental sedimentary unit exhumed during the latest Miocene contractional phase occurred in the southern Central Andes, allowing a direct field observation and study of the depositional geometries. The identification of growth strata on these units surrounding the structures of the frontal parts of the Andes, sedimentological analyses and U–Pb dating of detrital components, allowed the definition of a synorogenic unit that coexisted with the uplift of the early Andean orogen since ca. 100 Ma, maximum age obtained in this work, compatible with previous assignments and constrained in the top by the deposition of the Malargüe Group, in the Maastrichtian (ca. 72 Ma). The definition of a wedge top area in this foreland basin system, where growth strata were described, permitted to identify a Late Cretaceous orogenic front and foredeep area, whose location and amplitude contrast with previous hypotheses. This wedge top area was mostly fed from the paleo‐Andes with small populations coming from sources in the cratonic area that are interpreted as a recycling in Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous sections, which contrasts with other analyses performed at the foredeep zone that have mixed sources. In particular, Permian sources are interpreted as coming directly from the cores of the basement structures, where Neopaleozoic sections are exposed, next to the synorogenic sedimentation, implying a strong incision in Late Cretaceous times with an exhumation structural level similar to the present. The maximum recognised advance for this Late Cretaceous deformation in the study area is approximately 500 km east of the Pacific trench, which constitutes an anomaly compared with neighbour segments where Late Cretaceous deformations were found considerably retracted. The geodynamic context of the sedimentation of this unit is interpreted as produced under the westward fast moving of South America, colliding with two consecutive mid‐ocean ridges during a period of important plate reorganisation. The subduction of young, anhydrous, buoyant lithosphere would have produced changes in the subduction geometry, reflected first by an arc waning/gap and subsequently by an arc migration that coexisted with synorogenic sedimentation. These magmatic and deformational processes would be the product of a shallow subduction regime, following previous proposals, which occurred in Late Cretaceous times, synchronous to the sedimentation of the Neuquén Group.     

The stresses and dynamics of smallholder coffee systems in Jamaica’s Blue Mountains: a case for the potential role of climate services

Access to climate information has the potential to build adaptive capacity, improve agricultural profitability, and help manage risks. To achieve these benefits, knowledge of the local context is needed to inform information development, delivery, and use. We examine coffee farming in the Jamaican Blue Mountains (BM) to understand farmer livelihoods, opportunities for climate knowledge to benefit coffee production, and the factors that impinge on farmers’ ability to use climate information. Our analysis draws on interviews and 12 focus groups involving 143 participants who largely cultivate small plots. BM farmers currently experience stresses related to climate, coffee leaf rust, and production costs that interrelate concurrently and with time lags. Under conditions that reduce income, BM farmers compensate by adjusting their use of inputs, which can increase their susceptibility to future climate and disease stresses. However, farmers can also decrease impacts of future stressors by more efficiently and effectively allocating their limited resources. In this sense, managing climate, like the other stresses, is an ongoing process. While we identify climate products that can help farmers manage climate risk, the local context presents barriers that argue for interactive climate services that go beyond conventional approaches of information production and delivery. We discuss how dialogs between farmers, extension personnel, and climate scientists can create a foundation from which use can emerge.     

The ecological implications of a Yakutian mammoth's last meal

Part of a large male woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) was preserved in permafrost in northern Yakutia. It was radiocarbon dated to ca. 18,500 ¹⁴C yr BP (ca. 22,500 cal yr BP). Dung from the lower intestine was subjected to a multiproxy array of microscopic, chemical, and molecular techniques to reconstruct the diet, the season of death, and the paleoenvironment. Pollen and plant macro-remains showed that grasses and sedges were the main food, with considerable amounts of dwarf willow twigs and a variety of herbs and mosses. Analyses of 110-bp fragments of the plastid rbcL gene amplified from DNA and of organic compounds supplemented the microscopic identifications. Fruit-bodies of dung-inhabiting Ascomycete fungi which develop after at least one week of exposure to air were found inside the intestine. Therefore the mammoth had eaten dung. It was probably mammoth dung as no bile acids were detected among the fecal biomarkers analysed. The plant assemblage and the presence of the first spring vessels of terminal tree-rings of dwarf willows indicated that the animal died in early spring. The mammoth lived in extensive cold treeless grassland vegetation interspersed with wetter, more productive meadows. The study demonstrated the paleoecological potential of several biochemical analytical techniques.     

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