Stochastic Modeling of Groundwater Extractions over a Data-Sparse Region of Australia

Setting limit on groundwater extractions is important to ensure sustainable groundwater management. Lack of extraction data can affect interpretations of historical pressure changes, predictions of future impacts, accuracy of groundwater model calibration, and identification of sustainable management options. Yet, many groundwater extractions are unmetered. Therefore, there is a need for models that estimate extraction rates and quantify model outputs uncertainties arising due to a lack of data. This paper develops such a model within the Generalized Linear Modeling (GLM) framework, using a case study of stock and domestic (SD) extractions in the Surat Cumulative Management Area, a predominantly cattle farming region in eastern Australia. Various types of extraction observations were used, ranging from metering to analytically-derived estimates. GLMs were developed and applied to estimate the property-level extraction amounts, where observation types were weighted by perceived relative accuracy, and well usage status. The primary variables found to affect property-level extraction rates were: yearly average temperature and rainfall, pasture, property area, and number of active wells; while variables most affecting well usage were well water electrical conductivity, spatial coordinates, and well age. Results were compared with analytical estimates of property-level extraction, illustrating uncertainties and potential biases across 20 hydrogeological units. Spatial patterns of mean extraction rates (and standard deviations) are presented. It is concluded that GLMs are well suited to the problem of extraction rate estimation and uncertainty analysis, and are ideal when model verification is supported by measurement of a random sample of properties.     

Determining hydrologic pathways of streamflow using geochemical tracers in a claypan watershed

Despite the low permeability of claypan soils, groundwater has been heavily contaminated by nitrate in agricultural watersheds dominated by claypan soils. However, it is unclear how nitrate concentrations in groundwater affect stream water quality. In this study, streamflow pathways were investigated using natural geochemical tracers in the 73-km² Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed in northeastern Missouri. Samples were collected from 2011 to 2017 from stream water (weekly-biweekly), precipitation (event-based), groundwater in 25 wells with screened depths varying from 2 to 16 m (bimonthly–seasonal) and interflow above the claypan in 7 shallow piezometers (weekly–monthly). The results of endmember mixing analysis using major ions indicate that streamflow was dominated by near-surface runoff (59 ± 20%), followed by interflow (25 ± 16%) and groundwater (16 ± 13%). Analysis of endmember distances using the mixing space defined by stream water chemistry suggests that groundwater contributions to streamflow came primarily from the intermediate to deep glacial till aquifer near and below 8 m. Near-surface runoff was persistent and dominant even after isolated precipitation events during a prolonged dry period. It is hypothesised that the alluvial aquifer near stream banks acts as a mixing zone to receive and store various source waters, resulting in persistent delivery of runoff to the stream. Groundwater, even though its contribution was limited, plays a significant role in regulating streamflow NO₃⁻ concentrations. This study significantly improves our understanding of claypan hydrology and will lead to the development of models and decision support tools for implementation of management practices that improve groundwater and stream water quality in restrictive layer watersheds.     

Experimental phase and melting relations of metapelite in the upper mantle: implications for the petrogenesis of intraplate magmas

We performed a series of piston-cylinder experiments on a synthetic pelite starting material over a pressure and temperature range of 3.0–5.0 GPa and 1,100–1,600°C, respectively, to examine the melting behaviour and phase relations of sedimentary rocks at upper mantle conditions. The anhydrous pelite solidus is between 1,150 and 1,200°C at 3.0 GPa and close to 1,250°C at 5.0 GPa, whereas the liquidus is likely to be at 1,600°C or higher at all investigated pressures, giving a large melting interval of over 400°C. The subsolidus paragenesis consists of quartz/coesite, feldspar, garnet, kyanite, rutile, ±clinopyroxene ±apatite. Feldspar, rutile and apatite are rapidly melted out above the solidus, whereas garnet and kyanite are stable to high melt fractions (>70%). Clinopyroxene stability increases with increasing pressure, and quartz/coesite is the sole liquidus phase at all pressures. Feldspars are relatively Na-rich [K/(K + Na) = 0.4–0.5] at 3.0 GPa, but are nearly pure K-feldspar at 5.0 GPa. Clinopyroxenes are jadeite and Ca-eskolaite rich, with jadeite contents increasing with pressure. All supersolidus experiments produced alkaline dacitic melts with relatively constant SiO₂ and Al₂O₃ contents. At 3.0 GPa, initial melting is controlled almost exclusively by feldspar and quartz, giving melts with K₂O/Na₂O ~1. At 4.0 and 5.0 GPa, low-fraction melting is controlled by jadeite-rich clinopyroxene and K-rich feldspar, which leads to compatible behaviour of Na and melts with K₂O/Na₂O ≫ 1. Our results indicate that sedimentary protoliths entrained in upwelling heterogeneous mantle domains may undergo melting at greater depths than mafic lithologies to produce ultrapotassic dacitic melts. Such melts are expected to react with and metasomatise the surrounding peridotite, which may subsequently undergo melting at shallower levels to produce compositionally distinct magma types. This scenario may account for many of the distinctive geochemical characteristics of EM-type ocean island magma suites. Moreover, unmelted or partially melted sedimentary rocks in the mantle may contribute to some seismic discontinuities that have been observed beneath intraplate and island-arc volcanic regions.     

Hydrologic Sensitivity of Global Rivers to Climate Change

Climate predictions from four state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) were used to assess the hydrologic sensitivity to climate change of nine large, continental river basins (Amazon, Amur, Mackenzie, Mekong, Mississippi, Severnaya Dvina, Xi, Yellow, Yenisei). The four climate models (HCCPR-CM2, HCCPR-CM3, MPI-ECHAM4, and DOE-PCM3) all predicted transient climate response to changing greenhouse gas concentrations, and incorporated modern land surface parameterizations. Model-predicted monthly average precipitation and temperature changes were downscaled to the river basin level using model increments (transient minus control) to adjust for GCM bias. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model (MHM) was used to calculate the corresponding changes in hydrologic fluxes (especially streamflow and evapotranspiration) and moisture storages. Hydrologic model simulations were performed for decades centered on 2025 and 2045. In addition, a sensitivity study was performed in which temperature and precipitation were increased independently by 2 °C and 10%, respectively, during each of four seasons. All GCMs predict a warming for all nine basins, with the greatest warming predicted to occur during the winter months in the highest latitudes. Precipitation generally increases, but the monthly precipitation signal varies more between the models than does temperature. The largest changes in the hydrological cycle are predicted for the snow-dominated basins of mid to higher latitudes. This results in part from the greater amount of warming predicted for these regions, but more importantly, because of the important role of snow in the water balance. Because the snow pack integrates the effects of climate change over a period of months, the largest changes occur in early to mid spring when snow melt occurs. The climate change responses are somewhat different for the coldest snow dominated basins than for those with more transitional snow regimes. In the coldest basins, the response to warming is an increase of the spring streamflow peak, whereas for the transitional basins spring runoff decreases. Instead, the transitional basins have large increases in winter streamflows. The hydrological response of most tropical and mid-latitude basins to the warmer and somewhat wetter conditions predicted by the GCMs is a reduction in annual streamflow, although again, considerable disagreement exists among the different GCMs. In contrast, for the high-latitude basins increases in annual flow volume are predicted in most cases.     

Sulfur geochemistry of hydrothermal waters in Yellowstone National Park,Wyoming, USA. III. An anion-exchange resin technique for sampling and preservation of sulfoxyanions in natural waters

A sampling protocol for the retention, extraction, and analysis of sulfoxyanions in hydrothermal waters has been developed in the laboratory and tested at Yellowstone National Park and Green Lake, NY. Initial laboratory testing of the anion-exchange resin Bio-Rad™ AG1-X8 indicated that the resin was well suited for the sampling, preservation, and extraction of sulfate and thiosulfate. Synthetic solutions containing sulfate and thiosulfate were passed through AG1-X8 resin columns and eluted with 1 and 3 M KCl, respectively. Recovery ranged from 89 to 100%. Comparison of results for water samples collected from five pools in Yellowstone National Park between on-site IC analysis (U.S. Geological Survey mobile lab) and IC analysis of resin-stored sample at SUNY-Stony Brook indicates 96 to 100% agreement for three pools (Cinder, Cistern, and an unnamed pool near Cistern) and 76 and 63% agreement for two pools (Sulfur Dust and Frying Pan). Attempts to extract polythionates from the AG1-X8 resin were made using HCl solutions, but were unsuccessful. Bio-Rad™ AG2-X8, an anion-exchange resin with weaker binding sites than the AG1-X8 resin, is better suited for polythionate extraction. Sulfate and thiosulfate extraction with this resin has been accomplished with KCl solutions of 0.1 and 0.5 M, respectively. Trithionate and tetrathionate can be extracted with 4 M KCl. Higher polythionates can be extracted with 9 M hydrochloric acid. Polythionate concentrations can then be determined directly using ion chromatographic methods, and laboratory results indicate recovery of up to 90% for synthetic polythionate solutions using AG2-X8 resin columns.     

Bar-top hollows: A new element in the architecture of sandy braided rivers

Discrete hollows in the bar tops of the South Saskatchewan River are described that form a newly-recognized morphological element of sandy braided rivers. These bar-top hollows, which are up to 1.7 m deep and may extend for 10–30 m down and across flow, have a circular to ovoid planform and are shown, through use of ground penetrating radar, to be filled by a series of distinct, often angle-of-repose, foresets. The hollows form by both erosion and bar-top deposition and may be generated by bar-tail accretion, cross-bar channel cutoff and subsequent fill or lateral accretion at the bar-head. Bar-top hollows occur in the upper part of the bar depositional sequence and may thus prove useful indicators for braid bar reconstruction in ancient sediments, and should not be confused with channel scour.     

Measurement of water content as a control of particle entrainment by wind

Of all controls on particle transport by wind, which include texture, crusting, vegetation cover and roughness, the role of water content is one of the most difficult to parameterize because of its high degree of spatial and temporal variability and its operation at a particle‐scale level directly at the surface. This study demonstrates that measurement of the distribution of brightness for all pixels in an image, now routinely employed in digital photography, is strongly correlated with gravimetric water content. Wind tunnel experiments further suggest that measurement of the distribution of β, as normalized against the brightness of the dry sand surface, is very useful in determining the order of magnitude of the mass transport rate (q). Finer resolution will likely never be achieved because of the heterogeneity of the particle transport phenomenon. Analysis of the variability in surface brightness does suggest that q is governed by the partitioning of momentum to particle motion that terminates in adhesion to surrounding areas of the surface that remain relatively wet. The proportion of surface particles that becomes dry appears to be of less importance. Preliminary work suggests that field application of digital photography in tracking spatial and temporal changes in the water content of beach deposits looks promising. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Damage to structures by pyroclastic flows and surges, inferred from nuclear weapons effects

In order to define the risk from explosive eruptions, one must constrain both the probability of explosive events and the effects, or consequences, of those events. This paper focuses on the effects of pyroclastic flows and surges (here termed ‘pyroclastic density currents', or PDCs) on buildings, infrastructure elements, and to some extent on vehicles. PDCs impart a lateral force to such structures in the form of dynamic pressure, which depends on the bulk density of the PDC (which in turn depends mainly on particle concentration) and its velocity. For reasonable ranges of particle concentration (10⁻³ to 0.5) and velocities (10 to 300 m/s), dynamic pressure on the upstream face of a structure ranges from 0.1 kPa to 10⁴ kPa. Lateral loads ranging up to about 100 kPa were produced during nuclear weapons tests in the 1940s and 1950s that were designed to study the effects of such loading on a variety of structures for civil defense and emergency response purposes in the event of nuclear war. Although considerable simplifications are involved, the data from these weapon tests provide useful analog information for understanding the effects of PDCs. I reviewed data from the nuclear tests, describing the expected damage from different loadings. Tables are provided that define the response of different structural elements (e.g., windows, framing, walls) and whole structures to loading in probabilistic terms, which in principle account for variations in construction quality, orientation, and other factors. Finally, damage documented from historical eruptions at Mt. Lamington (1951), Herculaneum (AD 79 Vesuvius eruption), and St. Pierre (1902 Mt. Pelee eruption) is reviewed. Damage patterns, combined with estimates of velocity, provide an independent estimate of particle concentration in the PDCs. Details of structural damage should be recorded and mapped around future eruptions in order to help refine this aspect of consequence analysis. Another fruitful approach would be to combine numerical simulations of eruption scenarios, which can produce simulated maps of dynamic pressure, with GIS-based data on structures for a given region; the result would be predictions of consequences that could be used for planning and emergency response training.