Heterogeneity and thermal modeling of ground water

Heat transport in aquifers is becoming an increasingly important topic due to recent growth in the use of ground water in thermal applications. However, the effect of heterogeneity on heat transport in aquifers has yet to be examined in the same detail as it has been for solute transport, and it is unclear what effect this may have on our ability to create accurate models. This study examines this issue through stochastic modeling using the geostatistics for two aquifers with low and high degrees of heterogeneity. The results indicate that there is considerable uncertainty in the distribution of heat associated with injection of warm water into an aquifer. Heterogeneity in the permeability field was also found to slightly reduce the ability to recover this introduced heat at a later time. These simulations also reveal that hydrodynamic macrodispersion is an important consideration in some heat flow problems.     

Deep groundwater mediates streamflow response to climate warming in the Oregon Cascades

Recent studies predict that projected climate change will lead to significant reductions in summer streamflow in the mountainous regions of the Western US. Hydrologic modeling directed at quantifying these potential changes has focused on the magnitude and timing of spring snowmelt as the key control on the spatial–temporal pattern of summer streamflow. We illustrate how spatial differences in groundwater dynamics can also play a significant role in determining streamflow responses to warming. We examine two contrasting watersheds, one located in the Western Cascades and the other in the High Cascades mountains of Oregon. We use both empirical analysis of streamflow data and physically based, spatially distributed modeling to disentangle the relative importance of multiple and interacting controls. In particular, we explore the extent to which differences in snow accumulation and melt and drainage characteristics (deep ground water vs. shallow subsurface) mediate the effect of climate change. Results show that within the Cascade Range, local variations in bedrock geology and concomitant differences in volume and seasonal fluxes of subsurface water will likely result in significant spatial variability in responses to climate forcing. Specifically, watersheds dominated by High Cascade geology will show greater absolute reductions in summer streamflow with predicted temperature increases.     

The crystal and melt structure of spinel and alumina at high temperature: An in-situ XANES study at the Al and Mg K-edge

We present structural information obtained on spinel and alumina at high temperature (298-2400 K) using in-situ XANES at the Mg and Al K-edges. For spinel, ^[4](Al_x,Mg_1−x)^[6](Al_2−x,Mg_x)O_4, with increasing temperature, a substitution of Mg by Al and Al by Mg in their respective sites is observed. This substitution corresponds to an inversion of the Mg and Al sites. There is a significant change in the Al K-edge spectra between crystal and liquid, which can be attributed to a change of the ^[6]Al normally observed in corundum at room temperature, to a mixture of ^[6]Al-^[4]Al in the liquid state. This conclusion is in good agreement with previous ²⁷Al NMR experiments. Furthermore, both experiments at the Al and Mg K-edges are in good agreement with XANES calculation made using FDMNES code.     

Hydrogeology of the Judith River Formation in southwestern Saskatchewan,Canada

The Judith River Formation forms an important regional aquifer in southwestern Saskatchewan, Canada. This aquifer is used for domestic and agricultural purposes in some areas and supports oil and gas production in other areas. As a result, the available data come from a range of sources and integration is required to provide an overview of aquifer characteristics. Here, data from oil and gas databases are combined with data from groundwater resource assessments. Analysis of cores, drill-stem tests and pumping tests provide a good overview of the physical hydrogeology of the Judith River Aquifer. Water chemistry data from oil and gas databases were less helpful in understanding the chemical hydrogeology due contamination of samples and unreliable laboratory analyses. Analytical modeling of past pumping in the aquifer indicates that decreases in hydraulic head exceeding 2 m are possible over distances of 10s of kilometers. Similar decreases in head should be expected for additional large withdrawals of groundwater from the Judith River Aquifer. Long-term groundwater abstraction should be limited by low pumping rates. Higher pumping rates appear to be possible for short-term uses, such as those required by the oil and gas industry.     

The thickness of the crystal mush on the floor of the Bushveld magma chamber

The thickness of the crystal mush on magma chamber floors can be constrained using the offset between the step-change in the median value of dihedral angles formed at the junctions between two grains of plagioclase and a grain of another phase (typically clinopyroxene, but also orthopyroxene and olivine) and the first appearance or disappearance of the liquidus phase associated with the step-change in median dihedral angle. We determined the mush thickness in the Rustenburg Layered Suite of the Bushveld Complex at clinopyroxene-in (in Lower Main Zone) and magnetite-in (in Upper Zone). We also examined an intermittent appearance of cumulus apatite in Upper Zone, using both the appearance and disappearance of cumulus apatite. In all cases, the mush thickness does not exceed 4 m. These values are consistent with field observations of a mechanically rigid mush at the bases of both magnetitite and chromitite layers overlying anorthosite. Mush thickness of the order of a few metres suggests that neither gravitationally-driven compaction nor compositional convection within the mush layer is likely to have been important processes during solidification: adcumulates in the Bushveld are most likely to have formed at the top of the mush during primary crystallisation. Similarly, it is unlikely either that migration of reactive liquids occurs through large stretches of stratigraphy, or that layering is formed by mechanisms other than primary accumulation.     

Is the onset of the English summer advancing?

British summers are known to have become warmer and drier in recent decades, but has there also been a change in the timing of this season’s beginning, as has occurred for spring? This paper addresses this question by examining records of the first blooming date of early summer flowering plants (phenology) and the timing of first occurrences of warm ‘summer’ temperatures, both events that we associate with the onset of summer. This has revealed that the onset of summer in England has been advancing since the mid 1950s. The occurrence of ‘summer’ temperatures has advanced more than early summer flowering, by eleven and three days respectively in the 1990s compared to the period 1954–1963. This may have encouraged drought or heat wave conditions by prolonging the period of warm temperatures and lower rainfall in which these events occur.     

QuakeSim and the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory

We are developing simulation and analysis tools in order to develop a solid Earth Science framework for understanding and studying active tectonic and earthquake processes. The goal of QuakeSim and its extension, the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (SERVO), is to study the physics of earthquakes using state-of-the-art modeling, data manipulation, and pattern recognition technologies. We are developing clearly defined accessible data formats and code protocols as inputs to simulations, which are adapted to high-performance computers. The solid Earth system is extremely complex and nonlinear, resulting in computationally intensive problems with millions of unknowns. With these tools it will be possible to construct the more complex models and simulations necessary to develop hazard assessment systems critical for reducing future losses from major earthquakes. We are using Web (Grid) service technology to demonstrate the assimilation of multiple distributed data sources (a typical data grid problem) into a major parallel high-performance computing earthquake forecasting code. Such a linkage of Geoinformatics with Geocomplexity demonstrates the value of the Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory (SERVO) Grid concept, and advances Grid technology by building the first real-time large-scale data assimilation grid.     

iSERVO: Implementing the International Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory by Integrating Computational Grid and Geographical Information Web Services

We describe the goals and initial implementation of the International Solid Earth Virtual Observatory (iSERVO). This system is built using a Web Services approach to Grid computing infrastructure and is accessed via a component-based Web portal user interface. We describe our implementations of services used by this system, including Geographical Information System (GIS)-based data grid services for accessing remote data repositories and job management services for controlling multiple execution steps. iSERVO is an example of a larger trend to build globally scalable scientific computing infrastructures using the Service Oriented Architecture approach. Adoption of this approach raises a number of research challenges in millisecond-latency message systems suitable for internet-enabled scientific applications. We review our research in these areas.     

Future changes of El Niño in two global coupled climate models

Idealized forcing experiments with 1% per year CO₂ increase to stabilized doubled and quadrupled CO₂, twenty-first century transient scenario experiments (SRES scenarios A1B and B1), and stabilized twenty-second century A1B and B1 experiments with two global coupled climate models (PCM and CCSM3) are analyzed for possible future changes of El Niño events. With increased CO₂ in the models, there is a reduction of amplitude of El Niño events. This is particularly apparent with larger forcing in the stabilized 4×CO₂ experiment in PCM and the stabilized greenhouse gas A1B experiment in CCSM3, where the reduction of amplitude is outside the range of the inherent multi-century variability of El Niño in the control runs of the models and is statistically significant. With moderately increased forcing (stabilized 2×CO₂ in PCM and the stabilized B1 experiment in CCSM3), the reduction in amplitude is evident, but it is not significant. The change in El Niño behavior with larger forcing is attributed to the change in base state temperature in the equatorial Pacific, which is similar with increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) in both models. Positive temperature anomalies in and below the thermocline, associated with a reduction of the trade winds, and weakened Pacific Ocean subtropical cells, produce a less intense thermocline, and consequently lower amplitude El Niño events. The previously noted intensification of El Niño tropical precipitation anomalies in a warmer mean base state that applied when there was no appreciable change in El Niño amplitude does not hold in the present study where the El Niño events decrease in magnitude in a future warmer climate. North American surface temperature anomalies associated with El Niño are reduced and become less significant in the future events, with the anomalously deepened Aleutian low in the North Pacific weakened and moved eastward with greater radiative forcing. Part of this is attributed to the smaller amplitude events and thus lower amplitude teleconnections as indicated by contrasting composites of medium and high amplitude El Niño events from the control runs. The change in midlatitude base state circulation also contributes to the change in El Niño teleconnections. The effects of this change in base state on the weakened El Niño teleconnections over North America are confirmed in sensitivity experiments with a version of the atmospheric model in which heating anomalies are specified to mimic El Niño events in a base state changed due to increased GHGs.     

Paleoecology of Beringian “packrat” middens from central Yukon Territory, Canada

Rodent middens from ice-rich loess deposits are important new paleoenvironmental archives for Eastern Beringia. Plant macrofossils recovered from three middens associated with Dawson tephra (ca. 24,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P.) at two sites in Yukon Territory include diverse graminoids, forbs, and mosses. These data suggest substantial local scale floristic and habitat diversity in valley settings, including steppe-tundra on well-drained soils, moist streamside meadows, and hydric habitats. Fossil arctic ground squirrel burrows and nesting sites indicate that permafrost active layers were thicker during Pleistocene glacial periods than at present on north-facing slopes.