A New Integrated Weighted Model in SNOW-V10: Verification of Continuous Variables

This paper presents the verification results of nowcasts of four continuous variables generated from an integrated weighted model and underlying Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Real-time monitoring of fast changing weather conditions and the provision of short term forecasts, or nowcasts, in complex terrain within coastal regions is challenging to do with sufficient accuracy. A recently developed weighting, evaluation, bias correction and integration system was used in the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 project to generate integrated weighted forecasts (INTW) out to 6 h. INTW forecasts were generated with in situ observation data and background gridded forecasting data from Canadian high-resolution deterministic NWP system with three nested grids at 15-, 2.5- and 1-km horizontal grid-spacing configurations. In this paper, the four variables of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and wind gust are treated as continuous variables for verifying the INTW forecasts. Fifteen sites were selected for the comparison of the model performances. The results of the study show that integrating surface observation data with the NWP forecasts produce better statistical scores than using either the NWP forecasts or an objective analysis of observed data alone. Overall, integrated observation and NWP forecasts improved forecast accuracy for the four continuous variables. The mean absolute errors from the INTW forecasts for the entire test period (12 February to 21 March 2010) are smaller than those from NWP forecasts with three configurations. The INTW is the best and most consistent performer among all models regardless of location and variable analyzed.     

Evapotranspiration and canopy characteristics of two lodgepole pine stands following mountain pine beetle attack

Over the past decade, British Columbia (BC), has experienced the largest mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak on record. This study used the eddy‐covariance (EC) technique to examine the impact of the MPB attack on evapotranspiration (E) and associated canopy characteristics of two lodgepole pine stands with secondary structure (trees, saplings and seedlings surviving the attack) located in central BC. MPB‐06, an 85‐year‐old almost pure stand of pine trees, was first attacked in 2006, and by 2010, ~80% of the trees had been killed. MPB‐03, a 110‐year‐old stand with an overstory consisting of over 90% pine and a developed sub‐canopy, was first attacked in 2003 and by 2007 had > 95% pine canopy mortality. EC measurements began in August 2006 at MPB‐06 and in March 2007 at MPB‐03, and continued for four years. Annual total E ranged from 226 mm to 237 mm at MPB‐06, and from 280 to 297 mm at MPB‐03, showing relatively little year‐to‐year change at both sites over the four years. Increased E from the accelerated growth of the surviving vegetation (secondary structure, shrubs and herbs) compensated for reduction in E due to the death of the overstory. Monthly average daytime canopy conductance, the Priestley–Taylor (α), and the canopy–atmosphere decoupling coefficient (Ω) steadily increased during the growing season reaching approximate maximum values of 5 mm s^?1, 0.75 and 0.12, respectively. Potential evapotranspiration was approximated using a vapour pressure deficit‐dependent α obtained at high soil water content. Calculated water deficits indicated some water‐supply limitation to the surviving trees and understory at both sites. Rates of root zone drainage during the growing season were low relative to precipitation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effectiveness of subsurface pressure monitoring for brine leakage detection in an uncertain CO2 sequestration system

This work evaluates the detection sensitivity of deep subsurface pressure monitoring within an uncertain carbon dioxide sequestration system by linking the output of an analytical reduced-order model and first-order uncertainty analysis. A baseline (non-leaky) modeling run was compared against 10 different leakage scenarios, where the cap rock permeability was increased by factors of 2–100 (cap rock permeability from 10^?3 to 10^?1 millidarcy). The uncertainty variance outputs were used to develop percentile estimates and detection sensitivity for pressure throughout the deep subsurface as a function of space (lateral distance from the injection wells and vertical orientation within the reservoir) and time (years since injection), or P(x, z, t). Conditional probabilities were computed for combinations of x, z, and t, which were then used to generate power curves for detecting leakage scenarios. The results suggest that measurements of the absolute change in pressure within the target injection aquifer would not be able to distinguish small leakage rates (i.e., less than 50 × baseline) from baseline conditions, and that only large leakage rates (i.e., >100 × baseline) would be discriminated with sufficient statistical power (>99 %). Combining measurements, for example by taking the ratio of formation pressure in Aquifer 2/Aquifer 1, provides better statistical power for distinguishing smaller leakage rates at earlier times in the injection program. Detection sensitivity for pressure is a function of space and time. Therefore, design of an adequate monitoring network for subsurface pressure should account for this space–time variability to ensure that the monitoring system performs to the necessary design criteria, e.g., specific false-negative and false-positive rates.     

Facilitating adaptation of biodiversity to climate change: a conceptual framework applied to the world’s largest Mediterranean-climate woodland

The importance of ecological management for reducing the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change is increasingly recognized, yet frameworks to facilitate a structured approach to climate adaptation management are lacking. We developed a conceptual framework that can guide identification of climate change impacts and adaptive management options in a given region or biome. The framework focuses on potential points of early climate change impact, and organizes these along two main axes. First, it recognizes that climate change can act at a range of ecological scales. Secondly, it emphasizes that outcomes are dependent on two potentially interacting and countervailing forces: (1) changes to environmental parameters and ecological processes brought about by climate change, and (2) responses of component systems as determined by attributes of resistance and resilience. Through this structure, the framework draws together a broad range of ecological concepts, with a novel emphasis on attributes of resistance and resilience that can temper the response of species, ecosystems and landscapes to climate change. We applied the framework to the world’s largest remaining Mediterranean-climate woodland, the ‘Great Western Woodlands’ of south-western Australia. In this relatively intact region, maintaining inherent resistance and resilience by preventing anthropogenic degradation is of highest priority and lowest risk. Limited, higher risk options such as fire management, protection of refugia and translocation of adaptive genes may be justifiable under more extreme change, hence our capacity to predict the extent of change strongly impinges on such management decisions. These conclusions may contrast with similar analyses in degraded landscapes, where natural integrity is already compromised, and existing investment in restoration may facilitate experimentation with higher risk?options.     

Modeling incompatible trace-element abundances in plagioclase in the Skaergaard intrusion using the trapped liquid shift effect

Incompatible trace-element abundances in minerals and whole rocks from layered intrusions have been used to model the fractionation processes and evolving liquid compositions. Many such models assume that the analyzed concentration in a mineral represents that of the mineral when it first crystallized. However, overgrowth from residual liquid and subsequent diffusive equilibration can result in significant changes to the bulk mineral compositions (the more incompatible the element the more dramatic the subsequent changes). The proportion of that residual liquid relative to the cumulus minerals is the most important parameter in determining the magnitude of this effect (trapped liquid shift effect). Calculations involving Ba and La contents in plagioclase quantitatively demonstrate this effect. For Ba and La (partition coefficients of 0.4 and 0.04), 50% trapped liquid in a sample can result in two and sevenfold increases, respectively, in concentration between original and final bulk mineral compositions. Different cumulus assemblages also have a major effect on final compositions. We use examples of the concentrations of Ba and La in plagioclase from the Skaergaard intrusion from previous publications to illustrate the importance of this effect. Specifically, the La content of bulk plagioclase steadily decreases upward from the Lower Zone to Upper Zone c, and Ba in plagioclase shows no increase from the Lower Zone to the top of the Middle Zone. Such results are not explicable by fractionation processes, but can be modeled by the trapped liquid shift effect, assuming the well-established evidence for upward decrease in trapped liquid proportion through these zones.     

Space- and Time-Dependent Probabilities for Earthquake Fault Systems from Numerical Simulations: Feasibility Study and First Results

In weather forecasting, current and past observational data are routinely assimilated into numerical simulations to produce ensemble forecasts of future events in a process termed “model steering”. Here we describe a similar approach that is motivated by analyses of previous forecasts of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). Our approach is adapted to the problem of earthquake forecasting using topologically realistic numerical simulations for the strike-slip fault system in California. By systematically comparing simulation data to observed paleoseismic data, a series of spatial probability density functions (PDFs) can be computed that describe the probable locations of future large earthquakes. We develop this approach and show examples of PDFs associated with magnitude M > 6.5 and M > 7.0 earthquakes in California.     

Last Glacial Maximum to Early Holocene Wind Strength in the Mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere from Aeolian Dust in the Tasman Sea

Dust transported by Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude westerly winds from Australia and deposited in the Tasman Sea shows no evidence for stronger winds during the last glacial maximum (LGM), compared to the Holocene. Features of the particle-size distributions of the dust do, however, indicate enhanced dry deposition of dust in the LGM changing to rainfall scavenging during deglaciation and the early Holocene as climate ameliorated. From these results it appears that activation of desert dunefields over 40% of Australia during the LGM was the result of a reduction in stabilizing vegetation and more frequent episodes of sand movement rather than of increased wind strength. The LGM climate of inland Australia must have been considerably more stressful for plants as a result of lower precipitation and/or carbon dioxide stress to achieve the implied levels of surface destabilization. Enhanced atmospheric dust loads in the Southern Hemisphere and deposition over Antarctica were most likely the result of greatly expanded source areas in the mid-latitude southern continents and a weaker hydrological cycle rather than greater entrainment or more efficient transport by stronger winds. During the LGM wind strength appears to have varied regionally, and predominantly in high latitudes, rather than uniformly for all zonal winds.     

Management Strategies to Sequester Carbon in Agricultural Soils and to Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is frequently promoted as a practical solution for slowing down the rate of increase of CO₂ in the atmosphere. Consequently, there is a need to improve our understanding of how land management practices may affect the net removal of greenhouse gases (GHG) from the atmosphere. In this paper we examine the role of agriculture in influencing the GHG budget and briefly discuss the potential for carbon mitigation by agriculture. We also examine the opportunities that exist for increasing soil C sequestration using management practices such as reduced tillage, reduced frequency of summer fallowing, introduction of forage crops into crop rotations, conversion of cropland to grassland and nutrient addition via fertilization. In order to provide information on the impact of such management practices on the net GHG budget we ran simulations using CENTURY (a C model) and DNDC (a N model) for five locations across Canada, for a 30-yr time period. These simulations provide information on the potential trade-off between C sequestration and increased N₂O emissions. Our model output suggests that conversion of cropland to grassland will result in the largest reduction in net GHG emissions, while nutrient additions via fertilizers will result in a small increase in GHG emissions. Simulations with the CENTURY model also indicated that favorable growing conditions during the last 15 yr could account for an increase of 6% in the soil C at a site in Lethbridge, Alberta. Presented at the International Workshop on Reducing Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Variability and Climate Change, Ljubljana, Slovenia, 7–9 October 2002.     

Non-local mixing of momentum in the convective boundary layer

Recently Frech and Mahrt proposed a closure scheme which includes alarge-scale stress term to represent the effects of non-local momentummixing in the convective boundary layer. Here large-eddy simulation (LES)datasets are used to evaluate the performance of this scheme across a rangeof stabilities between neutral and highly convective conditions, and as afunction of baroclinity. Generally the inclusion of the non-local term inthe closure model leads to results in better agreement with LES, althoughsome modifications to the model formulation are suggested.     

Temporal, geomagnetic and related attributes of kimberlite magmatism at Ekati, Northwest Territories, Canada

This paper outlines the development of a multi-disciplinary strategy to focus exploration for economic kimberlites on the Ekati property. High-resolution aeromagnetic data provide an over-arching spatial and magnetostratigraphic framework for exploration and kimberlite discovery at Ekati, and hence also for this investigation. The temporal, geomagnetic, spatial and related attributes of kimberlites with variable diamond content have been constrained by judiciously augmenting the information gathered during routine exploration with detailed, laboratory-based or field-based investigations. The natural remanent magnetisation of 36 Ekati kimberlites has been correlated with their age as determined by isotopic dating techniques, and placed in the context of a well-constrained geomagnetic polarity timescale. Kimberlite magmatism occurred over the period 75 to 45 Ma, in at least five temporally discrete intrusive episodes. Based on current evidence, the older kimberlites (75 to 59 Ma) have low diamond contents and are distributed throughout the property. Younger kimberlites (56 to 45 Ma) have moderate to high diamond contents and occur in three distinct intrusive corridors with NNE to NE orientations. Economic kimberlite pipes erupted at 55.4±0.4 Ma along the A154-Lynx intrusive corridor, which is 7 km wide and oriented at 015°, and at 53.2±0.3 Ma along the Panda intrusive corridor, which is 1 km wide and oriented at 038°. The intrusion ages straddle a paleopole reversal at Chron C24n, consistent with the observation that the older economic kimberlites present as aeromagnetic “low” anomalies while the younger economic pipes are characterised as aeromagnetic “highs”. The aeromagnetic responses for these kimberlites are generally muted because they contain volcaniclastic rock types with low magnetic susceptibility. Kimberlites throughout the Ekati property carry a primary natural magnetic remanence (NRM) vector in Ti-bearing groundmass magnetite, and it dominates over vectors related to induced magnetisation. Magnetostratigraphic correlation of Ekati kimberlites may therefore present a powerful adjunct to existing exploration techniques, mainly because the diamond content of Ekati kimberlites apparently is related more to the age of eruption than to any other parameter investigated in this work.