Singular spectrum analysis and forecasting of hydrological time series

The singular spectrum analysis (SSA) technique is applied to some hydrological univariate time series to assess its ability to uncover important information from those series, and also its forecast skill. The SSA is carried out on annual precipitation, monthly runoff, and hourly water temperature time series. Information is obtained by extracting important components or, when possible, the whole signal from the time series. The extracted components are then subject to forecast by the SSA algorithm. It is illustrated the SSA ability to extract a slowly varying component (i.e. the trend) from the precipitation time series, the trend and oscillatory components from the runoff time series, and the whole signal from the water temperature time series. The SSA was also able to accurately forecast the extracted components of these time series.     

A taxonomy of quality assessment methods for volunteered and crowdsourced geographic information

The growing use of crowdsourced geographic information (CGI) has prompted the employment of several methods for assessing information quality, which are aimed at addressing concerns on the lack of quality of the information provided by non‐experts. In this work, we propose a taxonomy of methods for assessing the quality of CGI when no reference data are available, which is likely to be the most common situation in practice. Our taxonomy includes 11 quality assessment methods that were identified by means of a systematic literature review. These methods are described in detail, including their main characteristics and limitations. This taxonomy not only provides a systematic and comprehensive account of the existing set of methods for CGI quality assessment, but also enables researchers working on the quality of CGI in various sources (e.g., social media, crowd sensing, collaborative mapping) to learn from each other, thus opening up avenues for future work that combines and extends existing methods into new application areas and domains.     

Tebuthiuron leaching in three Brazilian soils as affected by soil pH

Underground contamination water by herbicides depends on the interactions between their molecules with physical and chemical soil characteristics and climatic conditions. Studies with columns can estimate the leaching potential of herbicides in soils. This study aimed to determine the effect of soil pH on tebuthiuron leaching, and capacity of bioindicators to detect tebuthiuron residues in three Brazilian soils. Cucumber plants (Cucumis sativus) were more negatively affected when grown in soils with lower amounts of organic matter and clay, and in these soils, the tebuthiuron levels reached greater depths in the column. There was a positive correlation between tebuthiuron concentration and cucumber intoxication, and a negative correlation between tebuthiuron concentration and dry matter cucumber in all soils. The tebuthiuron leached up to 50 cm depth even in soils with higher organic matter and clay content. The increasing of soil pH can affect the leaching of nonionic herbicides, and liming practice may elevate the environmental contamination risk by tebuthiuron. The bioindicator method using Cucumis sativus is viable and can be recommended to detect tebuthiuron concentrations above 0.2 mg kg^?1.     

Measuring α in the Early Universe

We update the bounds on a time-varying fine structure constant α at the time of BBN (z∼10¹⁰) and CMB (z∼10³) and present the current CMB constraints on α, through a combined analysis of the BOOMERanG, MAXIMA and DASI datasets. We also present a discussion of the constraints on α coming from large-scale structure observations, focusing in particular on the power spectrum from the 2dF survey. Finally we provide a analysis of the degeneracies between α and the other cosmological parameters and discuss ways to break these with both existing and/or forthcoming data. Our results are consistent with no variation in α from the epoch of recombination to the present day, and restrict any such variation to be less than about 4%.We show that the forthcoming MAP and Planck experiments will be able to break most of the currently existing degeneracies between α and other parameters, and measure α to better than percent accuracy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Development of a drought vulnerability index using MCDM and GIS: study case in São Paulo and Ceará, Brazil

Natural Hazards - Although climate change vulnerability research in general has increased over the last decade, Latin American countries have more directed more limited efforts toward vulnerability...     

Denitrification-nitrification process in permeable coastal sediments: An investigation on the effect of salinity and nitrate availability using flow-through reactors

Permeable coastal sediments act as a reactive node in the littoral zone,transforming nutrients via a wide range of biogeochemical reactions.Reaction rates are controlled by abiotic factors,e.g.,salinity,temperature or solute concentration.Here,a series of incubation experiments,using flow-through reactors,were conducted to simulate the biogeochemical cycling of nitrate (NO_3~?) and phosphorus (P) in permeable sediments under differentNO_3~?availability conditions (factor I) along a salinity gradient (admixture of river and seawater,factor II).In an oligotrophic scenario,i.e.,unamendedNO_3~?concentrations in both river and seawater,sediments acted as a permanent net source ofNO_3~?to the water column.The peak production rate occurred at an intermediate salinity(20).IncreasingNO_3~?availability in river water significantly enhanced netNO_3~?removal rates within the salinity range of 0 to 30,likely via the denitrification pathway based on the sediment microbiota composition.In this scenario,the most active removal was obtained at salinity of 10.When both river and seawater were spiked with NO_3~?,the highest removal rate switched to the highest salinity (36).It suggests the salinity preference of theNO_3~?removal pathway by local denitrifiers (e.g.,Bacillus and Paracoccus) and thatNO_3~?removal in coastal sediments can be significantly constrained by the dilution relatedNO_3~?availability.Compared with the obtained variation forNO_3~?reactions,permeable sediments acted as a sink of soluble reactive P in all treatments,regardless of salinity andNO_3~?input concentrations,indicating a possibility of P-deficiency for coastal water from the intensive cycling in permeable sediments.Furthermore,the net production of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in all treatments was positively correlated with the measuredNO_3~?reaction rates,indicating that the DOC supply may not be the key factor forNO_3~?removal rates due to the consumption by intensive aerobic respiration.Considering the intensive production of recalcitrant carbon solutes,the active denitrification was assumed to be supported by sedimentary organic matter.     

Comparative energetics of ERA-40, JRA-25 and NCEP-R2 reanalysis, in the wave number domain

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-year Reanalysis (ERA-40), the Japan Meteorological Agency and Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Department of Energy AMIP-II Reanalysis (NCEP-R2) are intercompared through a global energetics analysis for all seasons.Overall, the Lorenz energy cycle is consistent among the three datasets. The flow of energy and the peaks and slopes in the spectra of the various components agree between the three reanalysis. Additionally, the temporal variability of the energy cycle terms shows consistency between the three reanalysis. Most differences between the three reanalysis are related to the magnitudes of energy forms and energy conversion/transfer rates at each wave number, generally following the relation ERA−40>JRA−25>NCEP−R2, and mainly located in the Southern Hemisphere. The best agreement between the three datasets is found for northern winter. Differences between the three datasets are greater for the other seasons, being greatest for northern summer. In general, these discrepancies are fairly modest, being likely due to the different model biases and resolutions, and the different data assimilation methods used by the respective reanalysis systems. The energetics of the three reanalysis become closer to each other in more recent years, which is likely due to the increase in the number of observations assimilated in the reanalysis.The NCEP-R2 reanalysis spectrum is smoother than those of ERA-40 and JRA-25, likely due to filtering and to its lower resolution model. The spectra show a rapid decrease for short waves in NCEP-R2 (n=36) and ERA-40 (n=63), as a consequence of filtering. The energy source in the nonlinear wave–wave interactions of kinetic energy, L(n), has a narrower spectral range in NCEP-R2 than in the other datasets. Energetics from the newer JRA-25 reanalysis is generally closer to that of ERA-40, with some exceptions as is the case of zonal–wave interactions of kinetic energy, M(n), for synoptic waves, or for eddy available potential energy, A_E, in the lower troposphere, for which JRA-25 is closer to NCEP-R2.     

The surface radiation budget over South America in a set of regional climate models from the CLARIS-LPB project

The performance of seven regional climate models in simulating the radiation and heat fluxes at the surface over South America (SA) is evaluated. Sources of uncertainty and errors are identified. All simulations have been performed in the context of the CLARIS-LPB Project for the period 1990–2008 and are compared with the GEWEX-SRB, CRU, and GLDAS2 dataset and NCEP-NOAA reanalysis. Results showed that most of the models overestimate the net surface short-wave radiation over tropical SA and La Plata Basin and underestimate it over oceanic regions. Errors in the short-wave radiation are mainly associated with uncertainties in the representation of surface albedo and cloud fraction. For the net surface long-wave radiation, model biases are diverse. However, the ensemble mean showed a good agreement with the GEWEX-SRB dataset due to the compensation of individual model biases. Errors in the net surface long-wave radiation can be explained, in a large proportion, by errors in cloud fraction. For some particular models, errors in temperature also contribute to errors in the net long-wave radiation. Analysis of the annual cycle of each component of the energy budget indicates that the RCMs reproduce generally well the main characteristics of the short- and long-wave radiations in terms of timing and amplitude. However, a large spread among models over tropical SA is apparent. The annual cycle of the sensible heat flux showed a strong overestimation in comparison with the reanalysis and GLDAS2 dataset. For the latent heat flux, strong differences between the reanalysis and GLDAS2 are calculated particularly over tropical SA.     

Environmental issues in urban groundwater systems: a multidisciplinary study of the Paranhos and Salgueiros spring waters,Porto (NW Portugal)

This study presents the results of a multidisciplinary approach, using hydrogeochemical, isotopic and ecotoxicological analyses, performed to assess the nature and suitability for use of Paranhos and Salgueiros spring waters (Porto city, NW Portugal). Based on the surface activities located along the course of the springs, 23 water samples were collected. All the samples were analysed for major element concentrations. The isotopic techniques employed included δ²H, δ¹⁸O and ³H. Standard acute bioassays with Daphnia magna were also performed. The hydrogeochemical analyses showed a nitrate and sulphate-enriched composition for these groundwaters, resulting mainly from urban drainage and sewer leakage. In the ecotoxicological analyses, no significant mortality was observed in any of the tests performed. The results obtained in this study suggest that Porto urban groundwater could be suitable for irrigation uses.     

Climatic simulations of the eastern Andes low-level jet and its dependency on convective parameterizations

The South American low level jet (SALLJ) of the Eastern Andes is investigated with Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations during the 2002–2003 austral summer using two convective parameterizations (Grell and Emanuel). The simulated SALLJ is compared with the special observations of SALLJEX (SALLJ Experiment). Both the Grell and Emanuel schemes adequately simulate the low level flow over South America. However, there are some intensity differences. Due to the larger (smaller) convective activity, the Emanuel (Grell) scheme simulates more intense (weaker) low level wind than analysis in the tropics and subtropics. The objectives criteria of Sugahara (SJ) and Bonner (BJ) were used for LLJ identification. When applied to the observations, both criteria suggest a larger frequency of the SALLJ in Santa Cruz, followed by Mariscal, Trinidad and Asunción. In Mariscal and Asunción, the diurnal cycle indicates that SJ occurs mainly at 12 UTCs (morning), while the BJ criterion presents the SALLJ as more homogenously distributed. The concentration into two of the four-times-a-day observations does not allow conclusions about the diurnal cycle in Santa Cruz and Trinidad. The simulated wind profiles result in a lower than observed frequency of SALLJ using both the SJ and BJ criteria, with fewer events obtained with the BJ. Due to the stronger simulated winds, the Emanuel scheme produces an equal or greater relative frequency of SALLJ than the Grell scheme. However, the Grell scheme using the SJ criterion simulates the SALLJ diurnal cycle closer to the observed one. Although some discrepancies between observed and simulated mean vertical profiles of the horizontal wind are noted, there is large agreement between the composites of the vertical structure of the SALLJ, especially when the SJ criterion is used with the Grell scheme. On an intraseasonal scale, a larger southward displacement of SALLJ in February and December when compared with January has been noted. The Grell and Emanuel schemes simulated this observed oscillation in the low-level flow. However, the spatial pattern and intensity of rainfall and circulation anomalies simulated by the Grell scheme are closer to the analyses than those obtained with the Emanuel scheme.