Plasma electron signatures of magnetic connection to the Jovian bow shock: Ulysses observations

Ulysses plasma electron observations of bidirectional and enhanced unidirectional electron heat fluxes within 4500 R_J (0.8 a.u. or 3 months on either side of closest approach) of Jupiter are presented as evidence for the magnetic connection of the spacecraft to the Jovian bow shock. These bursts of suprathermal electrons (> 30 eV) are observed when the interplanetary magnetic field points roughly parallel or antiparallel to the Jupiter-spacecraft line. Ninety-eight possible connection events were found over the 6 month period centered on the closest approach to Jupiter. The frequency of occurrence peaked with proximity to the bow shock, with most events occurring post-encounter. These are the first observations of backstreaming suprathermal electrons made in the vicinity of the Jovian bow shock.     

Four thousand years of environmental change and human activity in the Cochabamba Basin, Bolivia

The Cochabamba Basin (Bolivia) is on the ancient road network connecting Andean and lowland areas. Little is known about the longevity of this trade route or how people responded to past environmental changes. The eastern end of the Cochabamba valley system constricts at the Vacas Lake District, constraining the road network and providing an ideal location in which to examine past human-environmental interactions. Multi-proxy analysis of sediment from Lake Challacaba has allowed a c. 4000 year environmental history to be reconstructed. Fluctuations in drought tolerant pollen taxa and calcium carbonate indicate two periods of reduced moisture availability (c. 4000-3370 and c. 2190-1020 cal yr BP) compared to adjacent wetter episodes (c. 3370-2190 and c. 1020 cal yr BP-present). The moisture fluctuations broadly correlate to El Niño/Southern Oscillation variations reported elsewhere. High charcoal abundance from c. 4000 to 2000 yr ago indicates continuous use of the ancient road network. A decline in charcoal and an increase in dung fungus (Sporormiella) c. 1340-1210 cal yr BP, suggests that cultural changes were a major factor in shaping the modern landscape. Despite undisputable impacts of human populations on the Polylepis woodlands today, we see no evidence of woodland clearance in the Challacaba record.     

Capturing Farmers’ Knowledge: Testing the Analytic Hierarchy Process and a Ranking and Scoring Method

Abstract

Integrating local and Indigenous knowledge into land-use planning and the assessment of ecosystems services requires reliable, quantitative data. We tested two approaches to obtain such data by quantifying farmer opinion of different land-covers in Eastern Panama using (1) the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and (2) a simpler ranking and scoring technique. Both methods produce a set of numerical values reflecting the ability of land-covers to deliver ecological and socio-economic criteria. We present our experience with both methods and offer recommendations for researchers looking to quantify landholder opinion. The AHP survey was relatively long (on average it took 19?min to complete per criterion) and we faced problems with inconsistent responses. In contrast, the ranking and scoring method was much quicker (only 3?min per criterion) and therefore may be more suitable for gathering more data from a larger number of farmers.     

Response of chironomids to late Pleistocene and Holocene environmental change in the eastern Bolivian Andes

We present the first palaeolimnological investigation of chironomid larval assemblages from the Bolivian Eastern Cordillera. Taxonomic diagnoses are provided for the 10 chironomid taxa (subfamilies: Chironominae, Orthocladiinae and Tanypodinae) identified in the lake sediments. We compared changes in the chironomid assemblage from two Andean sites with previously reported palynological, charcoal and geochemical data, and highlight the potential of chironomid analysis to provide additional insights into environmental change in this region of high biodiversity over the last 18,000?years. At Lake Challacaba (17°33.257??S, 65°34.024??W; 3,400?m asl), the chironomid and geochemical data indicate periodic desiccation and hypersalinty of the basin c. 4,000?C3,460?cal?year BP. Increased abundance of Chironomus sp. at c. 1,000?cal?year BP suggests a change in human activity, supporting inferences from the pollen and spore records, which indicate elevated pastoral agriculture at this time. The greatest assemblage change in the chironomid record from Laguna Khomer Kocha Upper (17°16.514??S, 65°43.945??W; 4,153?m asl) occurred at c. 6,380?cal?year BP, concomitant with an increase in marsh woodland taxa, wetter conditions and a rising lake level at the end of a Holocene dry event. There is no apparent response in the chironomid assemblage to burning, however, at the onset of this dry event (c. 10,000?cal?year BP), which is the major transformative agent of the terrestrial vegetation. This study shows that chironomid assemblages in the tropical Andes responded to regional and local environmental changes, and in particular, that they were sensitive to adjustments in net moisture balance (water level fluctuations and salinity) and anthropogenic impacts (nutrient input). This suggests that within-lake processes are more important as drivers of chironomid assemblage composition than terrestrial vegetation or fire regime. Nevertheless, the full potential of subfossil chironomid analysis will only be realised once more modern autecological data are available.     

Frequency of coronal transients and solar activity

The High Altitude Observatory's white light coronagraph aboard Skylab observed some 110 coronal transients - rapid changes in appearance of the corona - during its 227 days of operation. The longitudes of the origins of these transients were not distributed uniformly around the solar surface (51 of the 100 events observed in seven solar rotations arose from a single quadrant of longitude). Further, the frequency of transient production from each segment of the solar surface was well correlated with the sunspot number and Ca ii plage (area × brightness) index in the segment, rotation by rotation. This correlation implies that transients occur more often above strong photospheric and chromospheric magnetic fields, that is, in regions where the coronal magnetic field is stronger and, perhaps, more variable. This pattern of occurrence is consistent with our belief that the forces propelling transient material outward are, primarily, magnetic. A quantitative relation between transient production from an area and the Zürich sunspot number appropriate to that area is derived, and we speculate that the relation is independent of phase in the solar activity cycle. If true, the Sun may give rise to as many as 100 white light coronal transients per month at solar cycle maximum.Currently at Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, Los Alamos, N.M., U.S.A.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Small Solar Wind Transients and Their Connection to the Large-Scale Coronal Structure

It has been realized for some time that the slow solar wind with its embedded heliospheric current sheet often exhibits complex features suggesting at least partially transient origin. In this paper we investigate the structure of the slow solar wind using the observations by the Wind and STEREO spacecraft during two Carrington rotations (2054 and 2055). These occur at the time of minimum solar activity when the interplanetary medium is dominated by recurrent high-speed streams and large-scale interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are rare. However, the signatures of transients with small scale-sizes and/or low magnetic field strength (comparable with the typical solar wind value, ～?5 nT) are frequently found in the slow solar wind at these times. These events do not exhibit significant speed gradients across the structure, but instead appear to move with the surrounding flow. Source mapping using models based on GONG magnetograms suggests that these transients come from the vicinity of coronal source surface sector boundaries. In situ they are correspondingly observed in the vicinity of high density structures where the dominant electron heat flux reverses its flow polarity. These weak transients might be indications of dynamical changes at the coronal hole boundaries or at the edges of the helmet streamer belt previously reported in coronagraph observations. Our analysis supports the idea that even at solar minimum, a considerable fraction of the slow solar wind is transient in nature.     

The complex, variable near-infrared extinction towards the Nuclear Bulge

Using deep J -, H - and K _S-band observations, we have studied the near-infrared extinction of the Nuclear Bulge, and find significant, complex variations on small physical scales. We have applied a new variable near-infrared colour excess (V-NICE) method to measure the extinction; this method allows for variation in both the extinction law parameter α and the degree of absolute extinction on very small physical scales. We see significant variation in both these parameters on scales of 5 arcsec. In our observed fields, representing a random sample of sight lines to the Nuclear Bulge, we measure α to be  2.64 ± 0.52  , compared to the canonical 'universal' value of 2. Our measured levels of     are similar to previously measured results     ; however, the steeper extinction law results in higher values for   A_J (4.5 ≤ A_J ≤ 10  ) and   A_H (1.5 ≤ A_H ≤ 6.5  ). Only when the extinction law is allowed to vary on the smallest scales can we recover self-consistent measures of the absolute extinction at each wavelength, allowing accurate reddening corrections for field star photometry in the Nuclear Bulge. The steeper extinction law slope also suggests that previous conversions of near-infrared extinction to   A_V   may need to be reconsidered. Finally, we find that the measured values of extinction are significantly dependent on the filter transmission functions of the instrument used to obtain the data. This effect must be taken into account when combining or comparing data from different instruments.     

The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: an example with heat-related mortality change estimates

The majority of climate change impacts assessments account for climate change uncertainty by adopting the scenario-based approach. This typically involves assessing the impacts for a small number of emissions scenarios but neglecting the role of climate model physics uncertainty. Perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) climate simulations offer a unique opportunity to explore this uncertainty. Furthermore, PPEs mean it is now possible to make risk-based impacts estimates because they allow for a range of estimates to be presented to decision-makers, which spans the range of climate model physics uncertainty inherent from a given climate model and emissions scenario, due to uncertainty associated with the understanding of physical processes in the climate model. This is generally not possible with the scenario-based approach. Here, we present the first application of a PPE to estimate the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. By using the estimated impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in six cities, we demonstrate the benefits of quantifying climate model physics uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment over the more common scenario-based approach. We also show that the impacts are more sensitive to climate model physics uncertainty than they are to emissions scenario uncertainty, and least sensitive to whether the climate change projections are from a global climate model or a regional climate model. The results demonstrate the importance of presenting model uncertainties in climate change impacts assessments if the impacts are to be placed within a climate risk management framework.     

Variations in the solar wind speed along the earth's orbit

Comparison of solar wind speed data obtained from the Pioneer 6 and 7 and Vela 3, 4, and 5 satellites from January 1969 through July 1970 has been undertaken. The distribution of measured speeds is similar for all satellites, despite wide separations along the Earth's orbit. For satellite separations (along the Earth's orbit) of 0.5 AU or less, the speeds measured by different satellites are closely correlated, i.e., it is usually possible to predict (to within ± 100 km sec^–1) the arrival of a particular solar wind speed at one satellite on the basis of earlier measurements at another. For separations larger than 1.0 AU it is usually not possible to make accurate predictions in this manner. This appears to be evidence that: (1) the boundary conditions on the coronal expansion at the base of the corona are a sensitive function of latitude and/or (2) the boundary conditions at any one point on the Sun evolve sufficiently in 4 days to alter significantly the speed of the wind at 1 AU.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator.