Retrospective and prospective model simulations of sea level rise impacts on Gulf of Mexico coastal marshes and forests in Waccasassa Bay, Florida

The State of Florida (USA) is especially threatened by sea level rise due to extensive low elevation coastal habitats (approximately 8,000?km²?<?1?m above sea level) where the majority of the human population resides. We used the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) simulation to improve understanding of the magnitude and location of these changes for 58,000?ha of the Waccasassa Bay region of Florida??s central Gulf of Mexico coast. To assess how well SLAMM portrays changes in coastal wetland systems resulting from sea level rise, we conducted a hindcast in which we compared model results to 30?years of field plot data. Overall, the model showed the same pattern of coastal forest loss as observed. Prospective runs of SLAMM using 0.64?m, 1?m and 2?m sea level rise scenarios predict substantial changes over this century in the area covered by coastal wetland systems including net losses of coastal forests (69%, 83%, and 99%, respectively) and inland forests (33%, 50%, and 88%), but net gains of tidal flats (17%, 142%, and 3,837%). One implication of these findings at the site level is that undeveloped, unprotected lands inland from the coastal forest should be protected to accommodate upslope migration of this natural community in response to rising seas. At a broader scale, our results suggest that coastal wetland systems will be unevenly affected across the Gulf of Mexico as sea level rises. Species vulnerable to these anticipated changes will experience a net loss or even elimination.     

Properties of unstable waves in the lower St Lawrence Estuary

Abstract

The lower St Lawrence Estuary is an interesting case amongst estuaries in that it is wide enough to accommodate the development of mesoscale unstable waves and eddies. These features are generated by the runoff‐driven jet along this body's south shore. We present data yielding estimates of the length, time and velocity scales of these unstable disturbances. To relate these quantities to the dynamics we employ a 2‐layer quasigeos‐trophic instability model featuring realistic lateral shear. All model runs show short time and length scales, e‐folding periods of less than 10 days and wavelengths less than 50 km.     

Integration of optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery for delivering operational annual crop inventories

Agriculture plays a critical role within Canada’s economy and, as such, sustainability of this sector is of high importance. Targeting and monitoring programs designed to promote economic and environmental sustainability are a vital component within Canada’s agricultural policy. A hierarchy of land information, including up to date information on cropping practices, is needed to measure the impacts of programs on land use decision-making and to gauge the environmental and economic benefits of these investments. A multi-year, multi-site research activity was completed to develop a robust methodology to inventory crops across Canada’s large and diverse agricultural landscapes. To move towards operational implementation the methodology must deliver accurate crop inventories, with consistency and reliability. In order to meet these operational requirements and to mitigate risk associated with reliance on a single data source, the methodology integrated both optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery. The results clearly demonstrated that multi-temporal satellite data can successfully classify crops for a variety of cropping systems present across Canada. Overall accuracies of at least 85% were achieved, and most major crops were also classified to this level of accuracy. Although multi-temporal optical data would be the preferred data source for crop classification, a SAR-optical dataset (two Envisat ASAR images and one optical image) provided acceptable accuracies and will mitigate risk associated with operational implementation. The preferred dual-polarization mode would be VV–VH. Not only were these promising classification results repeated year after year, but the target accuracies were met consistently for multiple sites across Canada, all with varying cropping systems.     

Cristobalite in a rhyolitic lava dome: evolution of ash hazard

Prolonged and heavy exposure to particles of respirable, crystalline silica-rich volcanic ash could potentially cause chronic, fibrotic disease, such as silicosis, in individuals living in areas of frequent ash fall. Here, we show that the rhyolitic ash erupted from Chaitén volcano, Chile, in its dome-forming phase, contains increased levels of the silica polymorph cristobalite, compared to its initial plinian eruption. Ash erupted during the initial, explosive phase (2–5 May 2008) contained approximately 2 wt.% cristobalite, whereas ash generated after dome growth began (from 21 May 2008) contains 13–19 wt.%. The work suggests that active obsidian domes crystallise substantial quantities of cristobalite on time-scales of days to months, probably through vapour-phase crystallisation on the walls of degassing pathways, rather than through spherulitic growth in glassy obsidian. The ash is fine-grained (9.7–17.7 vol.% <4 μm in diameter, the respirable range) and the particles are mostly angular. Sparse, fibre-like particles were confirmed to be feldspar or glass.     

Correction of Discretization Errors Simulated at Supply Wells

Many hydrogeology problems require predictions of hydraulic heads in a supply well. In most cases, the regional hydraulic response to groundwater withdrawal is best approximated using a numerical model; however, simulated hydraulic heads at supply wells are subject to errors associated with model discretization and well loss. An approach for correcting the simulated head at a pumping node is described here. The approach corrects for errors associated with model discretization and can incorporate the user's knowledge of well loss. The approach is model independent, can be applied to finite difference or finite element models, and allows the numerical model to remain somewhat coarsely discretized and therefore numerically efficient. Because the correction is implemented external to the numerical model, one important benefit of this approach is that a response matrix, reduced model approach can be supported even when nonlinear well loss is considered.     

Using Diurnal Temperature Signals to Infer Vertical Groundwater‐Surface Water Exchange

Heat is a powerful tracer to quantify fluid exchange between surface water and groundwater. Temperature time series can be used to estimate pore water fluid flux, and techniques can be employed to extend these estimates to produce detailed plan‐view flux maps. Key advantages of heat tracing include cost‐effective sensors and ease of data collection and interpretation, without the need for expensive and time‐consuming laboratory analyses or induced tracers. While the collection of temperature data in saturated sediments is relatively straightforward, several factors influence the reliability of flux estimates that are based on time series analysis (diurnal signals) of recorded temperatures. Sensor resolution and deployment are particularly important in obtaining robust flux estimates in upwelling conditions. Also, processing temperature time series data involves a sequence of complex steps, including filtering temperature signals, selection of appropriate thermal parameters, and selection of the optimal analytical solution for modeling. This review provides a synthesis of heat tracing using diurnal temperature oscillations, including details on optimal sensor selection and deployment, data processing, model parameterization, and an overview of computing tools available. Recent advances in diurnal temperature methods also provide the opportunity to determine local saturated thermal diffusivity, which can improve the accuracy of fluid flux modeling and sensor spacing, which is related to streambed scour and deposition. These parameters can also be used to determine the reliability of flux estimates from the use of heat as a tracer.     

High Purge Volume Sampling—A New Paradigm for Subslab Soil Gas Monitoring

Subslab soil gas sampling and analysis is a common line of evidence for assessing human health risks associated with subsurface vapor intrusion to indoor air for volatile organic compounds; however, conventional subslab sampling methods have generated data that show substantial spatial and temporal variability, which often makes the interpretation difficult. A new method of monitoring has been developed and tested that is based on a concept of integrating samples over a large volume of soil gas extracted from beneath the floor slab of a building to provide a spatially averaged subslab concentration. Regular field screening is also conducted to assess the trend of concentration as a function of the volume removed to provide insight into the spatial distribution of vapors at progressive distances away from the point of extraction. This approach minimizes the risk of failing to identify the areas of elevated soil vapor concentrations that may exist between discrete sample locations, and can provide information covering large buildings with fewer holes drilled through the floor. The new method also involves monitoring the extraction flow rate and transient vacuum response for mathematical analysis to help interpret the vapor concentration data and to support an optimal design for any subslab venting system that may be needed.     

Structure and viscosity of rhyolitic composition melts

The average local structure of a rhyolitic composition glass has been determined at 25°C using X-ray radial distribution analysis (RDA) and quasi-crystalline modelling and is best described as similar to that in a stuffed framework composed principally of six-membered rings of Si and Al tetrahedra (basically a stuffed tridymite-like model). Using this model it is possible to calculate a density (2.41 g/cm³) which compares well with the measured density (2.40 g/cm³); a structural model based on four-membered rings (an albite-like model) results in a substantially higher calculated density (2.60 g/cm³). We suggest that the rhyolite glass structural model is appropriate for rhyolitic melts, based on evidence from the recent literature. New viscosity data for an anhydrous rhyolite composition measured between 1200°C and 1500°C are presented and interpreted in terms of our proposed structural model and previous melt structure models for the major normative components of rhyolite. A mechanism for diffusion and viscous flow in framework silicate melts (including rhyolite composition) is proposed on the basis of recent molecular orbital calculations and molecular dynamics simulations of silicate and fluoride melts.