A new assessment of climate change impacts on food production shortfalls and water availability in Russia

While previous studies have focused on impacts of average climate change on Russian agriculture and water resources, this study takes into account the impact of changing frequency and spatial heterogeneity of extreme climate events, and the reliance of most of Russia on a few food producing regions. We analyze impacts of the IPCC A2 and B2 climate scenarios with the use of the Global Assessment of Security (GLASS) model (containing the Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) crop production model and the Water-Global Assessment and Prognosis (WaterGAP 2) water resources model). As in previous studies we find that decreased crop production in some Russian regions can be compensated by increased production in others resulting in relatively small average changes. However, a different perspective on future risk to agriculture is gained by taking into account a change in frequency of extreme climate events. Under climate normal conditions it is estimated that “food production shortfalls” (a year in which potential production of the most important crops in a region is below 50% of its average climate normal production, taking into account production in food-exporting regions) occur roughly 1–3 years in each decade. This frequency will double in many of the main crop growing areas in the 2020s, and triple in the 2070s. The effects of these shortfalls are likely to propagate throughout Russia because of the higher likelihood of shortfalls occurring in many crop export regions in the same year, and because of the dependence of most Russian regions on food imports from a relatively few main crop growing regions. We estimate that approximately 50 million people currently live in regions that experience one or more shortfalls each decade. This number may grow to 82–139 million in the 2070s. The assessment of climate impacts on water resources indicates an increase in average water availability in Russia, but also a significantly increased frequency of high runoff events in much of central Russia, and more frequent low runoff events in the already dry crop growing regions in the South. These results suggest that the increasing frequency of extreme climate events will pose an increasing threat to the security of Russia's food system and water resources.     

Main methods of trajectory synthesis for scenarios of space missions with gravity assist maneuvers in the system of Jupiter and with landing on one of its satellites

The development of a methodology for designing trajectories of spacecraft intended for the contact and remote studies of Jupiter and its natural satellites is considered. This methodology should take into account a number of specific features. Firstly, in order to maintain the propellant consumption at an acceptable level, the flight profile, ensuring the injection of the spacecraft into orbit around the Jovian moon, should include a large number of gravity assist maneuvers both in the interplanetary phase of the Earth-to-Jupiter flight and during the flight in the system of the giant planet. Secondly, the presence of Jupiter’s powerful radiation belts also imposes fairly strict limitations on the trajectory parameters.

     

U-Pb systems and U isotopic composition of the sandstone-hosted paleovalley Dybryn uranium deposit, Vitim uranium district, Russia

The isotopic (U-Pb, ²³⁸U-²³⁵U, ²³⁴U-²³⁸U) and chemical study of whole-rock samples and finegrained fractions of rocks in a vertical section of the terrigenous sequence at the Dybryn uranium deposit in the Khiagda ore field shows that a wide U-Pb isotopic age range (26.9-6.5 Ma) is caused by oxidation and disturbance of the U-Pb isotopic system in combination with protracted uranium ore deposition. The oxidation of rocks resulted in the loss of uranium relative to lead and eventually to an overestimated ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age at sites with a low U content. The ²³⁸U/²³⁵U ratios in the studied samples are within the range of 137.74–137.88. Samples with a high uranium content are characterized by a decreasing ²³⁸U/²³⁵U ratio with a decrease in ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U and ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U ages. A nonequilibrium ²³⁴U/²³⁸U ratio in most studied samples furnishes evidence for young (<1.5 Ma) transformation of the Miocene uranium ore, which is responsible for uranium migration and its redeposition.     

Anomalous Lead Isotopic Composition of Galena and Age of Altered Uranium Minerals: a Case study of Chauli Deposits,Chatkal–Qurama District,Uzbekistan

The enrichment of lead isotopic composition of nonuranium minerals, in the first place galena in ²⁰⁶Pb and ²⁰⁷Pb, as compared to common lead is a remarkable feature of uranium deposits. The study of such lead isotopic composition anomalous in ²⁰⁶Pb and ²⁰⁷Pb in uranium minerals provides an opportunity for not only identification of superimposed processes resulting in transformation of uranium ores during deposit history but also calculation of age of these processes under certain model assumptions. Galena from the Chauli deposit in the Chatkal–Qurama district, Uzbekistan, a typical representative of hydrothermal uranium deposits associated with domains of Phanerozoic continental volcanism, has been examined with the highprecision (±0.02%) MC-ICP-MS method. Twenty microsamples of galena were taken from polished sections. Six of them are galena hosted in carbonate adjacent to pitchblende spherulites or filling thin veinlets (approximately 60 μm) cutting pitchblende. Isotopically anomalous lead with ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb and ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb values reaching 20.462 and 15.743, respectively, has been found in these six microsamples in contrast to another fourteen in which the Pb–Pb characteristics are consistent with common lead. On the basis of these data and with account for the 292 ± 2 Ma age for the Chauli deposit, the age of epigenetic transformation of uranium ores of this deposit has been estimated. During this process, radiogenic lead partly lost from pitchblende was captured into galena. The obtained date is 170 Ma. In the Chatkal–Qurama district, these epigenetic processes are apparently caused by the interaction of uranium minerals with activated underground water under tectonic activity and relief transformation, which took place from the post-Permian (i.e., after the Chauli formation) to the Jurassic period.     

The surface chemistry of multi-oxide silicates

The surface chemistry of natural wollastonite, diopside, enstatite, forsterite, and albite in aqueous solutions was characterized using both electrokinetic techniques and surface titrations performed for 20 min in batch reactors. Titrations performed in such reactors allow determination of both proton consumption and metal release from the mineral surface as a function of pH. The compositions, based on aqueous solution analysis, of all investigated surfaces vary dramatically with solution pH. Ca and Mg are preferentially released from the surfaces of all investigated divalent metal silicates at pH less than ∼8.5-10 but preferentially retained relative to silica at higher pH. As such, the surfaces of these minerals are Si-rich and divalent metal poor except in strongly alkaline solutions. The preferential removal of divalent cations from these surfaces is coupled to proton consumption. The number of protons consumed by the preferential removal of each divalent cation is pH independent but depends on the identity of the mineral; ∼1.5 protons are consumed by the preferential removal of each Ca atom from wollastonite, ∼3 protons are consumed by the preferential removal of each Mg or Ca atom from diopside or enstatite, and ∼4 protons are consumed by the preferential removal of each Mg from forsterite. These observations are interpreted to stem from the creation of additional ‘internal’ adsorption sites by the preferential removal of divalent metal cations which can be coupled to the condensation of partially detached Si. Similarly, Na and Al are preferentially removed from the albite surface at 2 > pH > 11; mass balance calculations suggest that three protons are consumed by the preferential removal of each Al atom from this surface over this entire pH range. Electrokinetic measurements on fresh mineral powders yield an isoelectric point (pH_IEP) 2.6, 4.4, 3.0, 4.5, and <1, for wollastonite, diopside, enstatite, forsterite, and albite, respectively, consistent with the predominance of SiO₂ in the surface layer of all of these multi-oxide silicates at acidic pH. Taken together, these observations suggest fundamental differences between the surface chemistry of simple versus multi-oxide minerals including (1) a dependency of the number and identity of multi-oxide silicate surface sites on the aqueous solution composition, and (2) the dominant role of metal-proton exchange reactions on the reactivity of multi-oxide mineral surfaces including their dissolution rate variation with aqueous solution composition.     

Seasonal fields of tangenital wind stress over the Black Sea

Tangential wind stress fields with a 40×60 spatial step are calculated from the data on atmospheric pressure distribution over the Black Sea over a decade. Their space-time variability is studied. It is shown that maximum values of the tangential wind stress in all seasons are located in the areas southwest of the Crimea and south of the Taman Peninsula. The tangenital wind stress retrieved from wind measurements is compared with the one determined from the atmospheric pressure data.Translated by V. Puchkin.