The evaluation of volcanic risk in the Vesuvian area

Volcanic Risk has been defined as the product: R = Value × Vulnerability × Hazard, where value is the total amount of lives or properties at risk for a volcani eruption, the vulnerability is the percentage of value at risk for a given volcanic event, and the hazard is the probability that a given area may be affected by a certain volcanic phenomenon.We used this definition to evaluate the Risk of loss of human lives for volcanic eruptions of Vesuvius. Value has been determined based on the total number of inhabitants living in areas that could be affected by an eruption. Vulnerability is based on the relative probability of deaths as a result of different volcanic phenomena (tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, etc.). Hazard is evaluated based on the absolute probability of a given phenomenon in a certain area. This last parameter is the most difficult to evaluate.We subdivided the activity of Vesuvius, that produces risk of loss of human lives, into three classes of eruptions, based on the Volcanic Explosivity Index. We assume that the events of each class are distributed according to a poissonian distribution (this is demonstrated for VEI = 3, and inferred for the other classes), so that we can evaluate the absolute probability of an eruption for each class within a given time span. We use a time window of 10 years and evaluate the probabilities of occurrence of at least one eruption for VEI = 3, 4, 5; the probability is respectively: P₃ = 0.09896, P₄ = 0.01748, P₅ = 0.00298We have made a hazard evaluation for the entire Vesuvian area as well as an evaluation of Volcanic Risk.The obtained map shows that the areas with higher risk are on the southern side of Vesuvius, in the coastal region where each town is characterized by an average Risk of 1000 inhabitants/10 years. The risk regularly decreases with increasing distance from the volcano. The risk is mostly due to the events with VEI = 3 and 4, as the most destructive effects of VEI = 5 are counterbalanced by the lower probability of such events.The map of volcanic risk is not intended to predict the loss of human lives of an eruption, but to give a methodology that permits to identify those areas where it is necessary to operate in order to reduce the risk of an eruption before it occurs.     

Volcanic hazard assessment at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera

Eruption forecasting and hazard assessments at the restless Campi Flegrei caldera, within the Neapolitan volcanic area, have been performed using stratigraphical, volcanological, structural and petrological data.On the basis of the reconstructed variation of eruption magnitude through time, we hypothesize that the most probable maximum expected event is a medium-magnitude explosive eruption, fed by trachytic magma. Such an eruption could likely occur in the north-eastern sector of the caldera floor that is under a tensile stress regime, when the ongoing deformation will generate mechanical failure of the rocks. A vent could open also in the western sector, at the intersection of two fault systems contemporaneously activated, as happened in the last eruption at Monte Nuovo. The eruption could likely be preceded by precursors apparent to the population, such as ground deformation, seismicity and increase in gas emissions. It will probably alternate between magmatic and phreatomagmatic phases with the generation of tephra fallout, and dilute and turbulent pyroclastic currents. During and/or after the eruption, the re-mobilization of ash by likely heavy rains, could probably generate mud flows.In order to perform a zoning of the territory in relation to the expected volcanic hazards, we have constructed a comprehensive hazard map. On this map are delimited (I) areas of variable probability of opening of a new vent, (II) areas which could be affected by variable load of fallout deposits, and (III) areas over which pyroclastic currents could flow. The areas in which a vent could likely open have been defined on the basis of the dynamics of the ongoing deformation of the caldera floor. To construct the fallout hazard map we have used the frequency of deposition of fallout beds thicker than 10 cm, the frequency of load on the ground by tephra fallout and the direction of dispersal axes of the deposits of the last 5 ka, and the limit load of collapse for the variable types of roof construction. The pyroclastic-current hazard map is based on the areal distribution and frequency of pyroclastic-current deposits of the last 5 ka.Editorial Responsibility: T. Druitt     

Rare-earth elements in Oligo-Miocenic pelitic sediments from Lagonegro Basin,southern Apennines,Italy: implications for provenance and source area weathering

The Lagonegro Units are a part of the southern Apennines orogenic wedge. The age of the Lagonegro successions ranges from lower–middle Triassic to Oligo-Miocene. During late Cretaceous and Oligocene the deposition of calcareous-clastic sediments occurred interbedded with shales (Flysch Rosso Fm). During Oligocene and early Miocene, in the Mediterranean area, an important variation of the tectonic regime occurred, and siliciclastic sediments of the Numidian Basin unconformably lay on the Meso-Cenozoic units of the Lagonegro Basin. In the Lucanian Apennine, the Aquitanian–Langhian Numidian Flysch Fm overlies the Flysch rosso Fm. The shales of the Flysch rosso Fm have a peculiar geochemical fingerprint relative to typical shales of post-Archean age. The abundance of Ni and Cr is significantly higher and the HREE chondrite-normalized patterns are steep with a (Gd/Yb)_ch>2. A supply of material from the African Archean terranes could be the cause. The palaeo-weathering indices record changes at the source, reflecting variations in the tectonic regime. The oldest samples are derived from an environment in which steady-state weathering conditions prevailed, whereas the youngest samples are related to non-steady-state weathering conditions. This difference could record deformational events that affected the Mediterranean area during the Oligocene and early Miocene. The sample at the top of the studied log has very high silica content and an abundant coarse grain-sized fraction. This suggests that this sample belongs to the Numidian Flysch Fm. The geochemical proxies of this sample are different from those associated with samples from the Flysch rosso Fm, indicating that the source-area of the Numidian Flysch Fm did not include the Archean terranes.     

The use of a non-lethal tool for evaluating toxicological hazard of organochlorine contaminants in Mediterranean cetaceans: new data 10 years after the first paper published in MPB

In the Mediterranean Sea, top predators, and particularly cetacean odontocetes, accumulate high concentrations of organochlorine contaminants and toxic metals, incurring high toxicological risk. In this paper we investigate the use of the skin biopsies as a non-lethal tool for evaluating toxicological hazard of organochlorines in Mediterranean cetaceans, presenting new data 10 years after the paper published by Fossi and co-workers [Mar. Poll. Bull. 24 (9) (1992) 459] in which this new methodology was first presented. Some organochlorine compounds, now with worldwide distribution, are known as endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). Here the unexplored hypothesis that Mediterranean cetaceans are potentially at risk due to organochlorines with endocrine disrupting capacity is investigated. High concentrations of DDT metabolites and PCB congeners (known as EDCs) were found in the different Mediterranean species (Stenella coeruleoalba, Delphinus delphis, Tursiops truncatus and Balaenoptera physalus). In this paper we also propose benzo(a)pyrene monooxygenase (BPMO) activity in marine mammal skin biopsies (non-lethal biomarker) as a potential indicator of exposure to organochlorines, with special reference to the compounds with endocrine disrupting capacity. A statistically significant correlation was found between BPMO activity and organochlorine levels (DDTs, pp(')DDT, op(')DDT, PCBs and PCB99) in skin biopsies of males of B. physalus. Moreover a statistical correlation was also found between BPMO activity and DDT levels in skin biopsies of the endangered Mediterranean population of D. delphis. These results suggest that BPMO induction may be an early sign of exposure to organochlorine EDCs and can be used for periodic monitoring of Mediterranean marine mammal toxicological status.     

Geochemical evidence for mixing of magmatic fluids with seawater,Nisyros hydrothermal system,Greece

The chemical and isotopic compositions (δD_H2O, δ¹⁸O_H2O, δ¹⁸O_CO2, δ¹³C_CO2, δ³⁴S, and He/N₂ and He/Ar ratios) of fumarolic gases from Nisyros, Greece, indicate that both arc-type magmatic water and local seawater feed the hydrothermal system. Isotopic composition of the deep fluid is estimated to be +4.9±0.5‰ for δ¹⁸O and ?11±5‰ for δD corresponding to a magmatic water fraction of 0.7. Interpretation of the stable water isotopes was based on liquid–vapor separation conditions obtained through gas geothermometry. The H₂–Ar, H₂–N₂, and H₂–H₂O geothermometers suggest reservoir temperatures of 345±15 °C, in agreement with temperatures measured in deep geothermal wells, whereas a vapor/liquid separation temperature of 260±30 °C is indicated by gas equilibria in the H₂O–H₂–CO₂–CO–CH₄ system. The largest magmatic inputs seem to occur below the Stephanos–Polybotes Micros crater, whereas the marginal fumarolic areas of Phlegeton–Polybotes Megalos craters receive a smaller contribution of magmatic gases.     

On the application of SAR interferometry to geomorphological studies: estimation of landform attributes and mass movements

This paper presents two examples of application of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) interferometry (InSAR) to typical geomorphological problems. The principles of InSAR are introduced, taking care to clarify the limits and the potential of this technique for geomorphological studies. The application of InSAR to the quantification of landform attributes such as the slope and to the estimation of landform variations is investigated. Two case studies are presented. A first case study focuses on the problem of measuring landform attributes by interferometric SAR data. The interferometric result is compared with the corresponding one obtained by a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). In the second case study, the use of InSAR for the estimation of landform variations caused by a landslide is detailed.     

Radiocarbon Data on Lateglacial and Holocene Landslides in the Northern Apennines

The Emilia Romagna slope of the Northern Apennines is strewnwith over 32,000 landslides, 5,000 of which are larger than 1 million cubic metres. They representthe remains of geomorphic agents that shaped the Apennines during the Holocene. Dating themby means of radiocarbon methods adds a contribution to the knowledge about the last periodof the geological geomorphological history of the Apennines. They can also be used to examinethe influence of Quaternary climatic changes on the instability of slopes and, for practicalor planning functions, to assess the periodicity of activity phases of the landslides. Thedating has been carried out on wood remnants buried under the landslide bodies. In some cases theentire tree trunk was found.In this paper we present radiocarbon dating of 20 casestudies in the Northern Apennines. Results range approximately from 13790–13670 cal y BP to950–790 cal`y BP. The oldest case is that of the Morsiano earth-flow, while the younger datedevent is represented by the Marano case that represents an example of how radiometric analysescan further enhance the available historical data. In the Cavola case, wood remnants of different ageswere found at different depths (from 9 to 45 m), allowing the dating of the first and followingperiods of activity of the landslide. The results are discussed and some considerations on the correlationbetween landslide occurrence and Holocene climate changes are proposed.     

Rapid morphological changes at the summit of an active volcano: reappraisal of the poorly documented 1964 eruption of Mount Etna (Italy)

While the eruptive record of Mount Etna is reasonably complete for the past 400 years, the activity of the early and late 1960s, which took place at the summit, is poorly documented in the scientific literature. From 1955 to 1971, the Central and Northeast Craters were the sites of long-lived mild Strombolian and effusive activity, and numerous brief episodes of vigorous eruptive activity, which led to repeated overflows of lava onto the external flanks of the volcano. A reconstruction of the sequence of the more important of these events based on research in largely obscure and nearly inaccessible sources permits a better understanding of the eruption dynamics and rough estimates of erupted volumes and of the changes to the morphology of the summit area. During the first half of 1964, the activity culminated in a series of highly dynamic events at the Central Crater including the opening of a fissure on the E flank of the central summit cone, lava fountains, voluminous tephra emission, prolonged strong activity with continuous lava overflows, and growth of large pyroclastic intracrater cones. Among the most notable processes during this eruption was the breaching of a section of the crater wall, which was caused by lateral pressure of lava ponding within the crater. Comparison with the apparently similar summit activity of 1999 allows us to state that (a) lava overflows from large pit craters at the summit are often accompanied by breaching of the crater walls, which represents a significant hazard to nearby observers, and that (b) eruptive activity in 1999 was much more complex and voluminous than in 1964. For 1960s standards however, the 1964 activity was the most important summit eruption in terms of intensity and output rates for about 100 years, causing profound changes to the summit morphology and obliterating definitively the former Central Crater.     

Landslides in Emilia-Romagna region (Italy): strategies for hazard assessment and risk management

In Emilia-Romagna, over 32,000 landslide bodies cover one-fifth of the hilly and mountainous territory. The majority of them originated as earth-flows after the last glacial maximum and grew during the rainiest periods of the Holocene through the superimposition of new earth-flows. Reactivation of these large landslides is the main problem the geologists of Emilia-Romagna are facing now. Intense and/or prolonged precipitation play a major role as triggering factors in reactivating landslide bodies, but also the importance of snowmelt is suggested by the monthly distribution of landslide events. Almost all the present-day landslide activity is due to the reactivation of pre-existing landslide bodies. Consequently, territorial planning and geo-thematic cartography are fundamental tools for the reduction of risk. The Emilia-Romagna geo-thematic cartography (1:10,000) is legally binding and regulates land use in regional, municipal and basin plans.