The Delphi technique and judgmental forecasting

The Delphi technique for judgmental forecasting by expert groups is described and the controversy surrounding its use is summarized. The technique clearly does not eliminate all unwanted psychological effects on group judgment. Furthermore, the design of most Delphi studies makes it impossible to separate the signal from the noise in expert judgment. A methodological standard for evaluating judgmental forecasts is proposed.     

Condensed water in tropical cyclone “Oliver”, 8 February 1993

On February 8, 1993, the NASA DC-8 aircraft profiled from 10,000 to 37,000 feet (3.1–11.3 km) pressure altitude in a stratified section of tropical cyclone “Oliver” over the Coral Sea northeast of Australia. Size, shape and phase of cloud and precipitation particles were measured with a 2-D Greyscale probe. Cloud/ precipitation particles changed from liquid to ice as soon as the freezing level was reached near 17,000 feet (5.2 km) pressure altitude. The cloud was completely glaciated at −5°C. There was no correlation between ice particle habit and ambient temperature. In the liquid phase, the precipitation-cloud drop concentration was 4.0 × 10³ m⁻³, the geometric mean diameter D_g=0.5−0.7 mm, and the liquid water content 0.7−1.9 g m⁻³. The largest particles anywhere in the cloud, dominated by fused dendrites at concentrations similar to that of raindrops (2.5 × 10³ m⁻³) but a higher condensed water content (5.4 g m⁻³ estimated) were found in the mixed phase; condensed water is removed very effectively from the mixed layer due to high settling velocities of the large mixed particles. The highest number concentration (4.9 × 10⁴ m⁻³), smallest size (D_g=0.3−0.4 mm), largest surface area (up to 2.6 × 10² cm² m⁻³ at 0.4−1.0 g m⁻³ of condensate) existed in the ice phase at the coldest temperature (−40°C) at 35,000 feet (10.7 km). Each cloud contained aerosol (haze particles) in addition to cloud particles. The aerosol total surface area exceeded that of the cirrus particles at the coldest temperature. Thus, aerosols must play a significant role in the upscattering of solar radiation. Light extinction (6.2 km⁻¹) and backscatter (0.8 sr⁻¹ km⁻¹) was highest in the coldest portion of the cirrus cloud at the highest altitude.     

Momentum transport of wave zero during March: A possible predictor for the Indian summer monsoon

Analysis of monthly momentum transport of zonal waves at 850 hPa for the period 1979 to 1993, between ‡S and ‡N for January to April, using zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind taken from the ECMWF reanalysis field, shows a positive correlation (.1% level of significance) between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June through September) and the momentum transport of wave zero TM(0) over latitudinal belt between 25‡S and 5‡N (LB) during March. Northward (Southward) TM(0) observed in March over LB subsequently leads to a good (drought) monsoon season over India which is found to be true even when the year is marked with the El-Nino event. Similarly a strong westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March, indicates a good monsoon season for the country, even if the year is marked with El-Nino. The study thus suggests two predictors, TM(0) over LB and the strength of westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March.     

Zircon U-Pb geochronology of Early Jurassic-Late cretaceous volcanic rocks in North Yellow Sea BasinEI北大核心CSCD

The X-drilling cores of the North Yellow Sea basin reveal two sets of Mesozoic clastic rocks, which are the dark rocks in lower part and the red rocks in upper part, respectively. There are two layers of volcanic rocks at the bottom and the upper part of the dark rock unit. The volcanic rocks at the bottom part are trachytic dacite while rocks at the upper part are clastic dacite. The zircon grains from the upper and lower units of volcanic rocks are euhedral-subhedral columnar crystals and show oscillatory zoning on cathodoluminescence images. 22 tests of zircons in the trachytic dacite from the bottom part yield an age of 141-151 Ma, with weighted mean 206Pb/238U age of 145±2 Ma. Whereas 18 tests of zircons from the sample at the upper part give 206Pb/238U ages around 139-149 Ma with weighted mean 206Pb/238U age of 141±2 Ma, which implies that the X well volcanic rocks belong to Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous. Comparing with the age and geochemical characteristics of the Mesozoic igneous rocks in Shandong peninsula, we suggest that the igneous rocks from both the North Yellow Sea basin and Jiaolai basin were formed under same dynamic setting, i.e., the subduction related volcano arc and back-arc extension. ©, 2015, Science Press. All right reserved.     

Geographical information system approaches for hazard mapping of dilute lahars on Montserrat, West Indies

Many research tools for lahar hazard assessment have proved wholly unsuitable for practical application to an active volcanic system where field measurements are challenging to obtain. Two simple routing models, with minimal data demands and implemented in a geographical information system (GIS), were applied to dilute lahars originating from Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Single-direction flow routing by path of steepest descent, commonly used for simulating normal stream-flow, was tested against LAHARZ, an established lahar model calibrated for debris flows, for ability to replicate the main flow routes. Comparing the ways in which these models capture observed changes, and how the different modelled paths deviate can also provide an indication of where dilute lahars, do not follow behaviour expected from single-phase flow models. Data were collected over two field seasons and provide (1) an overview of gross morphological change after one rainy season, (2) details of dominant channels at the time of measurement, and (3) order of magnitude estimates of individual flow volumes. Modelling results suggested both GIS-based predictive tools had associated benefits. Dominant flow routes observed in the field were generally well-predicted using the hydrological approach with a consideration of elevation error, while LAHARZ was comparatively more successful at mapping lahar dispersion and was better suited to long-term hazard assessment. This research suggests that end-member models can have utility for first-order dilute lahar hazard mapping.     

Recent Results from Studies of Electric Discharges in the Mesosphere

The paper reviews recent advances in studies of electric discharges in the stratosphere and mesosphere above thunderstorms, and their effects on the atmosphere. The primary focus is on the sprite discharge occurring in the mesosphere, which is the most commonly observed high altitude discharge by imaging cameras from the ground, but effects on the upper atmosphere by electromagnetic radiation from lightning are also considered. During the past few years, co-ordinated observations over Southern Europe have been made of a wide range of parameters related to sprites and their causative thunderstorms. Observations have been complemented by the modelling of processes ranging from the electric discharge to perturbations of trace gas concentrations in the upper atmosphere. Observations point to significant energy deposition by sprites in the neutral atmosphere as observed by infrasound waves detected at up to 1000 km distance, whereas elves and lightning have been shown significantly to affect ionization and heating of the lower ionosphere/mesosphere. Studies of the thunderstorm systems powering high altitude discharges show the important role of intracloud (IC) lightning in sprite generation as seen by the first simultaneous observations of IC activity, sprite activity and broadband, electromagnetic radiation in the VLF range. Simulations of sprite ignition suggest that, under certain conditions, energetic electrons in the runaway regime are generated in streamer discharges. Such electrons may be the source of X- and Gamma-rays observed in lightning, thunderstorms and the so-called Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes (TGFs) observed from space over thunderstorm regions. Model estimates of sprite perturbations to the global atmospheric electric circuit, trace gas concentrations and atmospheric dynamics suggest significant local perturbations, and possibly significant meso-scale effects, but negligible global effects.     

Hydraulics of sediment-laden sheetflow and the influence of simulated rainfall

Laminar sheetflows, transporting sediment at their capacity rates, both with and without rainfall disturbance, were investigated. Values of flow depth and relative submergence were very small. In the flows without rainfall, measured velocities exceeded the predictions of the smooth-surface, clear-water laminar model by an average of 12 per cent. Reduced flow resistance due to high sediment concentrations may explain this result. Velocities in the rainfall-disturbed flows were not significantly different from the predictions of the smooth-surface, clear-water model, and the velocity reduction due to rainfall was about 12 per cent. Although the uniformity of rainfall intensity under the single-nozzle rainfall simulator is high, variation of momentum and kinetic energy fluxes along the 1-5 m long flume was significant. The rainfall angle of incidence was highly correlated with deviations from expected flow velocities in the upper and lower sections of the flume.     

Strain partitioning and preservation of Ar/Ar ages during Variscan exhumation of a subducted crust (Malpica–Tui complex, NW Spain)

The Malpica–Tui complex (NW Iberian Massif) consists of a Lower Continental Unit of variably deformed and recrystallized granitoids, metasediments and sparse metabasites, overridden by an upper unit with rocks of oceanic affinities. Metamorphic minerals dated by the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method record a coherent temporal history of progressive deformation during Variscan metamorphism and exhumation. The earliest stages of deformation (D1) under high-pressure conditions are recorded in phengitic white micas from eclogite-facies rocks at 365–370 Ma. Following this eclogite-facies peak-metamorphism, the continental slab became attached to the overriding plate at deep-crustal levels at ca. 340–350 Ma (D2). Exhumation was accompanied by pervasive deformation (D3) within the continental slab at ca. 330 Ma and major deformation (D4) in the underlying para-autochthon at 315–325 Ma. Final tectonothermal evolution included late folding, localized shearing and granitic intrusions at 280–310 Ma.

Dating of high-pressure rocks by the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method yields ages that are synchronous with published Rb–Sr and Sm–Nd ages obtained for both the Malpica–Tui complex and its correlative, the Champtoceaux complex in the French Armorican Massif. The results indicate that phengitic white mica retains its radiogenic argon despite been subjected to relatively high temperatures (500–600 °C) for a period of 20–30 My corresponding to the time-span from the static, eclogite-facies M1 peak-metamorphism through D1-M2 eclogite-facies deformation to amphibolite-facies D2-M3. Our study provides additional evidence that under certain geological conditions (i.e., strain partitioning, fluid deficiency) argon isotope mobility is limited at high temperatures, and that ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology can be a reliable method for dating high pressure metamorphism.     

Sedimentological and provenance response to Cambrian closure of the Clymene ocean: The upper Alto Paraguai Group,Paraguay belt,Brazil

Final Gondwana amalgamation was marked by the closure of the Neoproterozoic Clymene ocean between the Amazonia craton and central Gondwana. The events which occurred in the last stage of this closure were recorded in the upper Alto Paraguai Group in the foreland of the Paraguay orogen. Outcrop-based facies analysis of the siliciclastic rocks of upper Alto Paraguai Group, composed of the Sepotuba and Diamantino Formations, was carried out in the Diamantino region, within the eastern part of the Barra dos Bugres basin, Mato Grosso state, central-western Brazil. The Sepotuba Formation is composed of sandy shales with planar to wave lamination interbedded with fine-grained sandstone with climbing ripple cross-lamination, planar lamination, swaley cross-stratification and tangential to sigmoidal cross-bedding with mud drapes, related to marine offshore deposits. The lower Diamantino Formation is composed of a monotonous, laterally continuous for hundreds of metres, interbedded siltstone and fine-grained sandstone succession with regular parallel lamination, climbing ripple cross-lamination and ripple-bedding interpreted as distal turbidites. The upper part of this formation consists of fine to medium-grained sandstones with sigmoidal cross-bedding, planar lamination, climbing ripple cross-lamination, symmetrical to asymmetrical and linguoid ripple marks arranged in lobate sand bodies. These facies are interbedded with thick siltstone in coarsening upward large-scale cycles related to a delta system. The Sepotuba Formation characterises the last transgressive deposits of the Paraguay basin representing the final stage of a marine incursion of the Clymene ocean. The progression of orogenesis in the hinterland resulted in the confinement of the Sepotuba sea as a foredeep sub-basin against the edge of the Amazon craton. Turbidites were generated during the deepening of the basin. The successive filling of the basin was associated with progradation of deltaic lobes from the southeast, in a wide lake or a restricted sea that formed after 541 ± 7 Ma. Southeastern to east dominant Neoproterozoic source regions were confirmed by zircon grains that yielded ages around 600 to 540 Ma, that are interpreted to be from granites in the Paraguay orogen. This overall regressive succession recorded in the Alto Paraguai Group represents the filling up of a foredeep basin after the final amalgamation of western Gondwana in the earliest Phanerozoic.     

Comparison of atmospheric aerosol backscattering and air mass back trajectories

Summary Atmospheric backscattering from aerosol particulates has been measured over the Atlantic at 10.6 μm wavelength with an airborne, coherent heterodyne, lidar, and corresponding air mass back trajectories have been calculated. These back trajectories (usually extended up to 10 days prior to the backscatter measurement) have shown very diverse origins for the air parcels at different altitudes. In many cases it has been possible to attribute the observed levels of scattering to these origins over oceanic, arctic, continental, industrial etc. regions. This is illustrated by 6 flight records: out of Ascension Island in the South Atlantic; over the Azores in the mid North Atlantic; over the UK and the North Sea; and in the Arctic along 71° North. In each of these regions the profiles of backscatter versus altitude show highly variable features; remarkably different origins for air masses at different altitudes are evident from the corresponding back trajectory analyses. It is thus possible for the first time to present probable explanations for the different levels of scattering observed at different altitudes. Received July 14, 2000 Revised May 14, 2001