High-frequency maximum observable shaking map of Italy from fault sources

We present a strategy for obtaining fault-based maximum observable shaking (MOS) maps, which represent an innovative concept for assessing deterministic seismic ground motion at a regional scale. Our approach uses the fault sources supplied for Italy by the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources, and particularly by its composite seismogenic sources (CSS), a spatially continuous simplified 3-D representation of a fault system. For each CSS, we consider the associated Typical Fault, i.e., the portion of the corresponding CSS that can generate the maximum credible earthquake. We then compute the high-frequency (1–50?Hz) ground shaking for a rupture model derived from its associated maximum credible earthquake. As the Typical Fault floats within its CSS to occupy all possible positions of the rupture, the high-frequency shaking is updated in the area surrounding the fault, and the maximum from that scenario is extracted and displayed on a map. The final high-frequency MOS map of Italy is then obtained by merging 8,859 individual scenario-simulations, from which the ground shaking parameters have been extracted. To explore the internal consistency of our calculations and validate the results of the procedure we compare our results (1) with predictions based on the Next Generation Attenuation ground-motion equations for an earthquake of M_w 7.1, (2) with the predictions of the official Italian seismic hazard map, and (3) with macroseismic intensities included in the DBMI04 Italian database. We then examine the uncertainties and analyse the variability of ground motion for different fault geometries and slip distributions.     

Web Geoservices and Ancient Cadastral Maps: The Web C.A.R.T.E. Project

In the State Archive of Como, Northern Italy, about 15,000 historical maps belonging to different national cadastral productions are preserved. The Web C.A.R.T.E. project was started to enhance the accessibility of this valuable cartographic heritage using FOSS (Free and Open Source Software) technologies. The system, which implements specific web geoservices for cataloguing and visualization, should assist the State Archive of Como in the digital management of its cartographic resources and related information. After the high‐resolution digitization step, maps undergo a georeferencing operation. A special statistical procedure for choosing the best mathematical model was developed, verifying also strengths and weaknesses of georeferencing with a common free and Open Source GIS. Next, metadata consistent with current Italian standards were added to the georeferenced maps using an ad hoc localized version of GeoNetwork Opensource (recently provided as the official Italian version of the software). A dedicated WebGIS system was built for publishing the georeferenced cadastral maps. This system is capable of navigating large raster data in a georeferenced framework and easily retrieving their metadata. The WebGIS system for the State Archive of Como is an important contribution for the preservation of the original historical paper maps and also a great modernization and simplification of the end user's access to this archive.     

Hydrogeochemical study in the Main Ethiopian Rift: new insights to the source and enrichment mechanism of fluoride

The central Main Ethiopian Rift suffers a severe water quality problem, characterized by an anomalously high fluoride (F) content that causes an endemic fluorosis disease. The current study, conducted in the Ziway–Shala lakes basin, indicates that the F content exceeds the permissible limit for drinking prescribed by the World Health Organization (WHO; 1.5 mg/l) in many important wells (up to 20 mg/l), with even more extreme F concentration in hot springs and alkaline lakes (up to 97 and 384 mg/l respectively). The groundwater and surface water from the highlands, typically characterized by low total dissolved solids (TDS) and Ca (Mg)–HCO₃ hydrochemical facies, do not show high F content. The subsequent interaction of these waters with the various rocks of the rift valley induces a general increase of the TDS, and a variation of the chemical signature towards Na–HCO₃ compositions, with a parallel enrichment of F. The interacting matrixes are mainly rhyolites consisting of volcanic glass and only rare F-bearing accessory minerals (such as alkali amphibole). Comparing the abundance and the composition of the glassy groundmass with other mineral phases, it appears that the former stores most of the total F budget. This glassy material is extremely reactive, and its weathering products (i.e. fluvio/volcano-lacustrine sediments) further concentrate the fluoride. The interaction of these “weathered/reworked” volcanic products with water and carbon dioxide at high pH causes the release of fluoride into the interacting water. This mainly occurs by a process of base-exchange softening with the neo-formed clay minerals (i.e. Ca–Mg uptake by the aquifer matrix, with release of Na into the groundwater). This is plausibly the main enrichment mechanism that explains the high F content of the local groundwater, as evidenced by positive correlation between F, pH, and Na, and inverse correlation between F and Ca (Mg). Saturation indices (SI) have been calculated (using PHREEQC-2) for the different water groups, highlighting that the studied waters are undersaturated in fluorite. In these conditions, fluoride cannot precipitate as CaF₂, and so mobilizes freely without forming other complexes. These results have important implications for the development of new exploitation strategies and accurate planning of new drilling sites. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

New algorithms for shoreline monitoring from coastal video systems

Video systems have become widely used all around the world in coastal monitoring strategies, allowing both high temporal and spatial sampling frequency, with low logistic and costs efforts. The present paper deals with a new tool for coastal images processing, aimed at the automatic shoreline detection and data analysis. The tool is composed by a shoreline detection routine implemented in a web-application, addressed at images processing (i.e. shoreline extraction and geo-rectification), data analysis and sharing results about beach actual state and shore evolution in quasi-real time. The Shoreline Detection Model (SDM) is based on a new algorithm, implementing image-processing procedures, which allows extracting the sea/land boundary from automatic segmented Timex images. The SDM calibration and validation has been performed on different coastal images derived from a video monitoring system installed at Alimini (Lecce, IT) in 2005, by comparing automatic shoreline contours with the manual detected ones. Moreover, in December 2015, new video monitoring systems were installed in South Italy (Porto Cesareo and Torre Canne, Apulia region), at sandy beaches affected by erosion phenomena. The application of the SDM on images recorded by the new systems has allowed testing the model feasibility at sites characterized by different morphological features and geographical exposition. The present describes in detail the SDM algorithm and the image processing procedures used. The results of the model calibration and validation performed at Alimini and the tests performed at Porto Cesareo on first images are reported.     

Geometry of the neotectonic stress field in southern Italy: Geological and seismological evidence

The neotectonic regime in southern Italy has been evaluated by making a comparison between all the available structural and seismological data. The area investigated can be subdivided into four distinct zones which are characterized by different stress regimes. In the Southern Apennines the tensile axis of the stress field is oriented approximately NE-SW while the maximum principal stress (σ₁) is subvertical. In Northern Calabria, the tensile axis is ESE-WNW and the σ₁ axis is almost vertical. In the Catanzaro trough both the tensile axis and the σ₁ axis are subhorizontal and act E-W and N-S, respectively. Finally, the Strait of Messina zone is characterized by a tensile axis oriented E-W and by σ₁ being subvertical.     

Prof. & Ph. D Zhu Qing

Geo-spatial Information Science -     

Use of general circulation model output in the creation of climate change scenarios for impact analysis

Many scientific studies warn of a rapid global climate change during the next century. These changes are understood with much less certainty on a regional scale than on a global scale, but effects on ecosystems and society will occur at local and regional scales. Consequently, in order to study the true impacts of climate change, regional scenarios of future climate are needed. One of the most important sources of information for creating scenarios is the output from general circulation models (GCMs) of the climate system. However, current state-of-the-art GCMs are unable to simulate accurately even the current seasonal cycle of climate on a regional basis. Thus the simple technique of adding the difference between 2 × CO₂ and 1 × CO₂ GCM simulations to current climatic time series cannot produce scenarios with appropriate spatial and temporal details without corrections for model deficiencies. In this study a technique is developed to allow the information from GCM simulations to be used, while accommodating for the deficiencies. GCM output is combined with knowledge of the regional climate to produce scenarios of the equilibrium climate response to a doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration for three case study regions, China, Sub-Saharan Africa and Venezuela, for use in biological effects models. By combining the general climate change calculated with several GCMs with the observed patterns of interannual climate variability, reasonable scenarios of temperature and precipitation variations can be created. Generalizations of this procedure to other regions of the world are discussed.     

The landslides and tsunamis of the 30th of December 2002 in Stromboli analysed through numerical simulations

On the 30th of December 2002 two tsunamis were generated only 7 min apart in Stromboli, southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy. They represented the peak of a volcanic crisis that started 2 days before with a large emission of lava flows from a lateral vent that opened some hundreds of meters below the summit craters. Both tsunamis were produced by landslides that detached from the Sciara del Fuoco. This is a morphological scar and is the result of the last collapse of the northwestern flank of the volcanic edifice, that occurred less than 5 ka b.p. The first tsunami was due to a submarine mass movement that started very close to the coastline and that involved about 20×10⁶ m³ of material. The second tsunami was engendered by a subaerial landslide that detached at about 500 m above sea level and that involved a volume estimated at 4–9×10⁶ m³. The latter landslide can be seen as the retrogressive continuation of the first failure. The tsunamis were not perceived as distinct events by most people. They attacked all the coasts of Stromboli within a few minutes and arrived at the neighbouring island of Panarea, 20 km SSW of Stromboli, in less than 5 min. The tsunamis caused severe damage at Stromboli.In this work, the two tsunamis are studied by means of numerical simulations that use two distinct models, one for the landslides and one for the water waves. The motion of the sliding bodies is computed by means of a Lagrangian approach that partitions the mass into a set of blocks: we use both one-dimensional and two-dimensional schemes. The landslide model calculates the instantaneous rate of the vertical displacement of the sea surface caused by the motion of the underwater slide. This is included in the governing equations of the tsunami, which are solved by means of a finite-element (FE) technique. The tsunami is computed on two different grids formed by triangular elements, one covering the near-field around Stromboli and the other also including the island of Panarea.The simulations show that the main tsunamigenic potential of the slides is restricted to the first tens of seconds of their motion when they interact with the shallow-water coastal area, and that it diminishes drastically in deep water. The simulations explain how the tsunamis that are generated in the Sciara del Fuoco area, are able to attack the entire coastline of Stromboli with larger effects on the northern coast than on the southern. Strong refraction and bending of the tsunami fronts is due to the large near-shore bathymetric gradient, which is also responsible for the trapping of the waves and for the persistence of the oscillations. Further, the first tsunami produces large waves and runup heights comparable with the observations. The simulated second tsunami is only slightly smaller, though it was induced by a mass that is approximately one third of the first. The arrival of the first tsunami is negative, in accordance with most eyewitness reports. Conversely, the leading wave of the second tsunami is positive.