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81.
To investigate the relation between observations of the 10.7 cm flux and the international sunspot number so that a physical unit may be ascribed to historical records, both polynomial and power law models are developed giving the radio flux as a function of sunspot number and vice versa. Bayesian data analysis is used to estimate the model parameters and to discriminate between the models. The effect on the parameter uncertainty and on the relative evidence of normalizing the measure of fit is investigated. The power law giving flux as a function of sunspot number is found to be the most plausible model and may be used to estimate the radio flux from historical sunspot observations.  相似文献   
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A method is presented fop estimation of the mode of analytical data reported by cooperating analysts in the preparation of reference materials. The method is referred to as the dominant cluster method, and the nodal value obtained is the value that shows most agreement between analysts.
Several examples demonstrate that this mode (for which approximate confidence intervals have been estimated), is not inconsistent with the recommended values that have been assigned to well-known geochemical reference samples. Features in its favour are that the calculation is simple, it is independent of the type of distribution, and outliers are automatically excluded.  相似文献   
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Nutrient salt surveys in the southern North Sea have shown that the level of phosphate and nitrate off the continental coast during January, 1974 was two to three times higher than during the same period in 1962. The level of phosphate has also increased in the Thames Estuary but to a lesser degree. It is suggested that these increases are related to the discharge of waste material from terrestrial sources and that such changes must be considered in the context of eutrophication in the southern North Sea.  相似文献   
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Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - In the context of statistical correlation theory and geostatistics, the covariance function has been widely used to characterize the...  相似文献   
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Computation of the seismic stability of rock wedges   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Summary Newmark's concept of computing the permanent displacement under seismic loads has been combined with the conventional limit equilibrium analysis to compute the displacements of a rock wedge. The rock wedge formed by the intersecting planes may or may not have a tension crack in the upper slope surface. As the static analysis of a rock wedge is available from the literature, only the seismic problem is treated theoretically in more details.A computer program has been developed to compute the displacements from the digitised input data of the acceleration-time-history. The program can take into account the water pressure on the intersecting planes and on the planes of the tension crack. The effect of rock anchors if present is also taken care of in addition to static surcharge loads. The program calculates the conventional static factor of safety, remaining resistance against sliding, the critical acceleration, exciting force, relative velocity with time and the cumulative displacements.Two model examples are presented: one with simple sinusoidal acceleration and the other one with actual earthquake data considering the different systems of forces acting on the wedge. The results are critically discussed with respect to the different parameters e. g. anchor forces, water pressure and cohesion influencing the magnitude of displacements under seismic loads. It is shown that the critical acceleration is a better index for the seismic stability than the conventional factor of safety.The critical acceleration presented in this paper serves as a very handy tool for a site engineer to get the first hand information about the stability of the wedge for a given acceleration-time-history without going into the details of dynamic analysis.Notations A, B Inclined intersecting planes - C, D Geometric points on the intersection ofA andB - a cr Critical acceleration - a h Horizontal acceleration - a v Vertical acceleration - a r Relative acceleration of the wedge - DF Driving force - DF dyn Dynamic driving force - DF st Static driving force - FS Factor of safety - g Acceleration due to gravity - m Mass of the wedge - RF Resisting force - RF dyn Dynamic resisting force - RF st Static resisting force - RS Remaining resisting force against sliding - RS dyn Total seismic induced force - RS st Remaining static resisting force against sliding - s r Cumulative relative displacement of the wedge - TRS Total remaining resisting force against sliding - v r Relative velocity of the wedge - W Weight of the wedge - W A ,W B Weight of the wedge in the planeA andB - Dip of line of intersection of the planesA andB - Average friction angle - A , B Friction angle of planeA andB - I, II, III, IV Points in the curve shown in Fig. 6  相似文献   
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