An objective Bayesian analysis of the change point problem

The Bayesian literature on the change point problem deals with the inference of a change in the distribution of a set of time-ordered data based on a sample of fixed size. This is the so-called retrospective or off-line analysis of the change point problem. A related but different problem is that of the sequential change point detection, mainly analyzed from a frequentist viewpoint. While the former typically focuses on the estimation of the position in which the change point occurs, the latter is a testing problem which has a natural formulation as a Bayesian model selection problem. In this paper we provide such a Bayesian formulation, which generalizes previous formulations such as the well-known CUSUM stopping rule. We show that the conventional improper priors (also called non-informative, objective or default), cannot be used either for sequential detection of the change or for retrospective estimation. Then, we propose objective intrinsic prior distributions for the unknown model parameters. The normal and Poisson cases are studied in detail and examples with simulated and real data are provided.     

NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) – A Coastal Solution to Tsunami Alert and Notification

The Washington State/Local Tsunami Work Group adopted the NOAA Weather Radio All-Hazards Warning System to warn citizens quickly and effectively of not only tsunami hazards but also other natural or man-made hazards. In concert with an array of deep ocean tsunami detectors, land-based seismic sensors, and warning messages issued by the tsunami warning centers, NWR provides a means to expeditiously get critical decision-making information to emergency managers, elected officials, and first responders. To implement the NWR strategy effectively, a partnership was developed to add a repeater to the NWR system to provide complete coverage to the coast of Washington and to shipping lanes off the coast. The Work Group also recognized the need to disseminate time critical hazard information on tsunamis to the public on beaches and in high traffic areas, so it developed a new notification system, with the first prototype installed on 2 July 2003 in Ocean Shores, Washington. A public education program also was developed to improve the impacted communities understanding of the tsunami hazard, the warning system, and actions they should take if a tsunami occurs.     

Contribution to the study of Greek thermal springs: hydrogeological and hydrochemical characteristics and origin of thermal waters

A large number of chemical analyses of Greek thermal waters were evaluated in order to investigate spring water origin, water–rock interaction mechanisms, and estimate the thermal potential of the geothermal areas. Four water types were distinguished from geochemical diagrams. The relatively fresher waters include samples of Ca–HCO₃ and Mg–HCO₃ type waters originating from the schistose Rhodope Massif and the Quaternary basin of Aridea, respectively. Samples of the Na–HCO3 water type are typical of springs located in the post-orogenic basins of northern Greece. These hot, deep-rising Na–HCO₃ waters circulate in a CO₂-rich environment that favours the solubility of alkaline ions such as Na from siliceous rocks. Most of the samples belong to the Na–Cl water type and originate from Greek islands and coastal springs. These are characterized by the mixing of deep thermal solutions with seawater and fresh water. The presence of CO₂ in thermal and mineral springs is due to the metamorphism of buried marine carbonate horizons while H₂S is due to both local pyrite oxidation and the reduction of sulphates. The use of geothermometers suggested that the investigated geothermal areas have low enthalpy fluids at depth, while higher temperatures are likely present in Milos, Lesvos, Nisyros islands and Xanthi Basin.

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Resumen Se ha evaluado un gran número de análisis químicos de aguas termales griegas con objeto de investigar el origen del agua en los manantiales, los mecanismos de interacción agua-roca, y estimar el potencial termal de las áreas geotérmicas. Se distinguieron cuatro tipos de aguas a partir de diagramas geoquímicos. Las aguas relativamente frescas incluyen muestras de agua tipo Ca–HCO₃ y Mg–HCO₃ que se originan en los esquistos del Macizo Rhodope y la cuenca Cuaternaria de Aridea, respectivamente. Las muestras de agua tipo Na–HCO₃ son típicas de manantiales localizados en las cuencas post-orogénicas del norte de Grecia. Estas aguas calientes y profundas, de tipo Na–HCO₃, circulan en un ambiente rico en CO₂ que favorece la solubilidad de iones alcalinos, tal como Na proveniente de rocas silícicas. La mayoría de las muestras pertenecen al tipo de agua Na–Cl y se originan en islas y manantiales costeros griegos. Estas aguas se caracterizan por la mezcla de soluciones termales profundas con agua de mar y agua dulce. La presencia de CO₂ en manantiales termales y minerales se debe a el metamorfismo de horizontes carbonatados marinos enterrados mientras que el H₂S se debe a oxidación local de pirita y reducción de sulfatos. El uso de geotermómetros sugiere que las áreas termales investigadas tienen fluidos de baja entalpía a profundidad, mientras que las temperaturas más elevadas es probable que se presenten en Milos, Lesvos, islas de Nisyros y la cuenca Xanthi.

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Résumé Un grand nombre danalyses chimiques des eaux thermales grecques ont été menées de manière à investiguer lorigine des eaux des sources thermales, les mécanismes dinteraction avec les roches traversées, et destimer le potentiel des zones géothermiques. Quatre types deau ont été distinguées sur base des diagrammes géochimiques. Les eaux les plus fraîches correspondent respectivement aux échantillons des eaux calco et magnéso carbonatées du massif schisteux de Rhodope et du bassin quaternaire dAridea. Les échantillons deaux sodi carbonatées proviennent typiquement des sources localisées dans les bassins posts-orogéniques du Nord de la Grèce. Ces chaudes et très profondes eaux sodi carbonatées circulent dans des environnements riches en CO₂ qui favorisent la solubilité des ions alcalins, tel que le sodium, des roches siliceuses. La plus part des échantillons ont un facies chloruré sodique et proviennent des îles grecques ou des environnement côtier. Ces eaux sont caractérisées par des mélanges entre eaux profondes avec des eaux de mer et des eaux de surface. La présence de CO₂ dans les eaux de sources thermales et minérales est due au métamorphisme des horizons de calcaires marins et couverts, tandis que la présence de H₂S est due à loxydation locale de la pyrite et à la réduction des sulfates. Lutilisation de géothermomètres suggère que les zones géothermiques étudiées contiennent des eaux à faible enthalpie en profondeur, bien que des températures assez élevées soient rencontrées à Milos, Lesvos, sur les îles Nisyros et dans le bassin de Xanthi.

     

History of Boulder 1 at Station 2, Apollo 17 based on trace element interrelationships

Correlations among the trace and minor element pairs Cl and Br, Cl and P₂O₅, and Ru and Os, present in parent igneous rocks, generally survived the processes of boulder breccia formation. Fractions of the Cl, Br, and Hg that are mobilized by water leaching and/or volatilization at moderate temperatures (?450°C) place constraints on the thermal history of Boulder 1 and its component breccias. Since, and possibly during, consolidation, the boulder has probably not been subjected to temperatures of ?450°C. The parent rocks of the Apollo 17 boulder and breccia samples studied could have been derived from two initial magmas. Boulder 1, Station 2 gray competent breccias 72255 and 72275 Clast #2 appear to be genetically unrelated to gray competent breccia and anorthositic material 72215, or to light friable breccia 72275; they do appear to be related to samples 72395 (Boulder 2) and 76315 (Station 6 boulder). Vapor clouds from apparently external sources permeated the source regions of the boulders.     

Determination of total, commonality, and uniqueness of interpreted structural elements from remotely sensed data in Alaska

Statistical analysis is conducted to determine the unique value of real- and synthetic-aperture side-looking airborne radar (SLAR) to detect interpreted structural elements. SLAR images were compared to standard and digitally enhanced Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) images and to aerial photographs. After interpretation of the imagery, data were cumulated by total length in miles and by frequency of counts. Maximum uniqueness is obtained first from real-aperture SLAR, 58.3% of total, and, second, from digitally enhanced Landsat MSS images, 54.1% of total.Publication authorized by the Director, U.S. Geological Survey, on 20 September 1984.     

矿物性质对聚丙烯酰胺吸附的影响

选择粒径范围为50μm～154μm的11种储层标准矿物,取1.0000g矿物按1∶10的固/液比分别与浓度为1000μg/ml的聚丙烯酰胺(蒸馏水配制)溶液在常温25℃下作静态吸附实验,分别反应8h,36h,72h和120h,高速分离后用酸/漂白液沉淀浊度法检测聚丙烯酰胺浓度,并计算吸附量.研究结果表现出如下的吸附量顺序:石膏>蒙脱石>高岭石>绿泥石>黑云母>白云母>白云石>方解石>斜长石>微斜长石>石英。多种矿物共存时存在吸附量与矿物配比不成比例的协同效应。     

A direction-sensitive underwater blast detector and its application for managing blast fishing

Little is known about the spatial and temporal distribution of blast fishing which hampers enforcement against this activity. We have demonstrated that a triangular array of hydrophones 1 m apart is capable of detecting blast events whilst effectively rejecting other sources of underwater noise such as snapping shrimp and nearby boat propellers. A total of 13 blasts were recorded in Sepangor bay, North of Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia from 7th to 15th July 2002 at distances estimated to be up to 20 km, with a directional uncertainty of 0.2 degrees . With such precision, a network of similar hydrophone arrays has potential to locate individual blast events by triangulation to within 30 m at a range of 10 km.