Reconstructions of spring/summer precipitation for the Eastern Mediterranean from tree-ring widths and its connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation

This study represents the first large-scale systematic dendroclimatic sampling focused on developing chronologies from different species in the eastern Mediterranean region. Six reconstructions were developed from chronologies ranging in length from 115 years to 600 years. The first reconstruction (1885–2000) was derived from principal components (PCs) of 36 combined chronologies. The remaining five, 1800–2000, 1700–2000, 1600–2000, 1500–2000 and 1400–2000 were developed from PCs of 32, 18, 14, 9, and 7 chronologies, respectively. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1931–2000 show good levels of skill for all reconstructions. The longest period of consecutive dry years, defined as those with less than 90% of the mean of the observed May–August precipitation, was 5 years (1591–1595) and occurred only once during the last 600 years. The longest reconstructed wet period was 5 years (1601–1605 and 1751–1755). No long term trends were found in May–August precipitation during the last few centuries. Regression maps are used to identify the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on regional precipitation. In general, tree-ring indices are influenced by May–August precipitation, which is driven by anomalous below (above) normal pressure at all atmospheric levels and by convection (subsidence) and small pressure gradients at sea level. These atmospheric conditions also control the anomaly surface air temperature distribution which indicates below (above) normal values in the southern regions and warmer (cooler) conditions north of around 40°N. A compositing technique is used to extract information on large-scale climate signals from extreme wet and dry summers for the second half of the twentieth century and an independent reconstruction over the last 237 years. Similar main modes of atmospheric patterns and surface air temperature distribution related to extreme dry and wet summers were identified both for the most recent 50 years and the last 237 years. Except for the last few decades, running correlation analyses between the major European-scale circulation patterns and eastern Mediteranean spring/summer precipitation over the last 237 years are non-stationary and insignificant, suggesting that local and/or sub-regional geographic factors and processes are important influences on tree-ring variability over the last few centuries.     

The high-temperature heat capacity of natural calcite (CaCO3)

The heat capacity (C _P) of a natural sample of calcite (CaCO₃) has been measured from 350 to 775 K by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). Heat capacities determined for a powdered sample and a single-crystal disc are in close agreement and have a total uncertainty of ±1 percent. The following equation for the heat capacity of calcite from 298 to 775 K was fit by least squares to the experimental data and constrained to join smoothly with the low-temperature heat capacity data of Staveley and Linford (1969) (C _P in J mol^?1 K^?1, T in K): $$\begin{gathered} C_p = - 184.79 + 0.32322T - 3,688,200T^{ - 2} \hfill \\ {\text{ }} - (1.2974{\text{ }} \times {\text{ 10}}^{ - {\text{4}}} )T^2 + 3,883.5T^{ - 1/2} \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ Combining this equation with the S ₂₉₈ ⁰ value from Staveley and Linford (1969), entropies for calcite are calculated and presented to 775 K. A simple method of extrapolating the heat capacity function of calcite above 775 K is presented. This method provides accurate entropies of calcite for high-temperature thermodynamic calculations, as evidenced by calculation of the equilibrium: CaCO_{3 (s)}=CaO_(s)+CO_{2 (s)}.     

Acoustic stratigraphy and hydrothermal activity within Epi Submarine Caldera,Vanuatu, New Hebrides Arc

Geological and geophysical surveys of active submarine volcanoes offshore and southeast of Epi Island, Vanuatu, New Hebrides Arc, have delineated details of the structure and acoustic stratigraphy of three volcanic cones. These submarine cones, named Epia, Epib, and Epic, are aligned east-west and spaced 3.5 km apart on the rim of a submerged caldera. At least three acoustic sequences, of presumed Quaternary age, can be identified on single-channel seismic-reflection profiles. Rocks dredged from these cones include basalt, dacite, and cognate gabbroic inclusions with magmatic affinities similar to those of the Karua (an active submarine volcano off the southeastern tip of Epi) lavas.     

(Re)surveying the uses of Geographical Information Systems in Health Authorities 1991–2001

This paper provides a comparative analysis of two separate national surveys of the uptake and use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) by Health Authorities (HAs) in England and Wales. The surveys were undertaken at two different time points (1991 and 2001), and the intervening period has been characterized by major (and continuing) health sector restructuring. The substantial number of HA mergers between 1991 and 2001 provide a methodological challenge in attempting to make comparisons. A pragmatic approach is adopted and the presentation of results has to be restricted solely to English and Welsh HA data. Our findings show that there has been a considerable increase in the use of GIS since the early 1990s, and there is some evidence of more sophisticated uses for a wider range of policy-related and application tasks. However, we conclude that there is still considerable scope for the wider uptake and use of GIS within the NHS. In addition, our findings provide a baseline with which to monitor the impacts of future organizational restructuring on the uses of GIS within the NHS. We suggest that this is important given the replacement of 95 English HAs with 28 new Strategic HAs (StHAs) from April 2002, and the repercussions of the anticipated shift in GIS responsibility to Primary Care Trusts.     

Geomorphological and sequence stratigraphic variability in wave‐dominated,shoreface‐shelf parasequences

Abstract Physical stratigraphy within shoreface‐shelf parasequences contains a detailed, but virtually unstudied, record of shallow‐marine processes over a range of historical and geological timescales. Using high‐quality outcrop data sets, it is possible to reconstruct ancient shoreface‐shelf morphology from clinoform surfaces, and to track the evolving morphology of the ancient shoreface‐shelf. Our results suggest that shoreface‐shelf morphology varied considerably in response to processes that operate over a range of timescales. (1) Individual clinoform surfaces form as a result of enhanced wave scour and/or sediment starvation, which may be driven by minor fluctuations in relative sea level, sediment supply and/or wave climate over short timescales (10¹?10³ years). These external controls cannot be distinguished in vertical facies successions, but may potentially be differentiated by the resulting clinoform geometries. (2) Clinoform geometry and distribution changes systematically within a single parasequence, reflecting the cycle in sea level and/or sediment supply that produced the parasequence (10²?10⁵ years). These changes record steepening of the shoreface‐shelf profile during early progradation and maintenance of a relatively uniform profile during late progradation. Modern shorefaces are not representative of this stratigraphic variability. (3) Clinoform geometries vary greatly between different parasequences as a result of variations in parasequence stacking pattern and relict shelf morphology during shoreface progradation (10⁵?10⁸ years). These controls determine the external dimensions of the parasequence.     

Adjustment of self-formed bankfull channel geometry of meandering rivers: modelling study

We consider the evolution of the hydraulic geometry of sand-bed meandering rivers. We study the difference between the timescale of longitudinal river profile adjustment and that of channel width and depth adjustment. We also study the effect of hydrological regime alteration on the evolution of bankfull channel geometry. To achieve this, a previously developed model for the spatiotemporal co-evolution of bankfull channel characteristics, including bankfull discharge, bankfull width, bankfull depth and down-channel bed slope, is used. In our modelling framework, flow variability is considered in terms of a specified flow duration curve. Taking advantage of this unique feature, we identify the flow range responsible for long-term bankfull channel change within the specified flow duration curve. That is, the relative importance of extremely high short-duration flows compared to moderately high longer duration flows is examined. The Minnesota River, MN, USA, an actively meandering sand-bed stream, is selected for a case study. The longitudinal profile of the study reach has been in adjustment toward equilibrium since the end of the last glaciation, while its bankfull cross-section is rapidly widening due to hydrological regime change in the last several decades. We use the model to demonstrate that the timescale for longitudinal channel profile adjustment is much greater than the timescale for cross-sectional profile adjustment due to a lateral channel shift. We also show that hydrological regime shift is responsible for the recent rapid widening of the Minnesota River. Our analysis suggests that increases in the 5–25% exceedance flows play a more significant role in recent bankfull channel enlargement of the Minnesota River than increase in either the 0.1% exceedance flow or the 90% exceedance flow. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Aquatic Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessment of Chemicals in Wet Weather Discharges in the Sydney Region, New South Wales, Australia

Sydney Water has completed a risk assessment to assess the risks to human health and aquatic organisms in creeks, rivers, estuaries and ocean waters affected by wet weather sewage overflows, stormwater and sewage treatment plant discharges. The risk assessment methodology consists of a comparison of measured and predicted concentrations of chemicals with toxicity reference values. Estimates of receiving water chemical concentrations were derived using data from a 10-year period so that the variable rainfall pattern was represented. Computer models were used to simulate and predict wet weather discharges during this ten year period. Risks were validated by bioassays and bioassessments. Risks to aquatic life from wet weather discharges were attributed to 14 chemicals at one or more of the sites and stormwater was the predominate source of the chemicals. There were no risks to people engaged in water based activities. Noncarcinogenic risks from fish ingestion are predicted at three sites. Predicted cancer risks for most individual chemicals were relatively small. Carcinogenic risks were typically associated with organochlorine compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, dichlorobenzene, and arsenic. The predicted cancer risks also appear to be largely the result of stormwater rather than sewage overflow inputs and largely due to historical contamination by organochlorine pesticides. It is expected the concentrations of these chemicals will decrease over time.     

Modeling Vapor Migration for Estimating the Time to Reach Steady State Conditions

The design and planning of soil vapor sampling for vapor intrusion assessment require an estimate of the time for vapor migration from the contamination source to reach steady state prior to vapor sampling and analysis for volatile organic compounds (VOCs). This study presents the model derivation, analytical solutions, as well as the assumptions and limitations of a one-dimensional VOC vapor transport model based on diffusion in porous media and equilibrium partitioning of VOCs in solid, aqueous, and vapor phases. The model assumes a finite domain with boundary conditions that represent the scenarios of vapor migration in the real environment. The derivation of the conceptual model is presented along with its practical use and implications as illustrated through case examples. Consideration of the upper (or exit) boundary condition along with the distance between the source and the applicable boundary, rather than the distance from the source to the measurement point, are shown to be critical in the time estimates as compared to an expression typically used and cited in guidance documents. The study reveals the importance of defining a conceptual model and relevant boundaries in assessing near steady state conditions, and suggests a tiered approach in refining the estimate with increasing level of effort for practical applications in vapor assessment.     

Quantitative detection of fluid distribution using time-lapse seismic

Although previous seismic monitoring studies have revealed several relationships between seismic responses and changes in reservoir rock properties, the quantitative evaluation of time‐lapse seismic data remains a challenge. In most cases of time‐lapse seismic analysis, fluid and/or pressure changes are detected qualitatively by changes in amplitude strength, traveltime and/or Poisson's ratio. We present the steps for time‐lapse seismic analysis, considering the pressure effect and the saturation scale of fluids. We then demonstrate a deterministic workflow for computing the fluid saturation in a reservoir in order to evaluate time‐lapse seismic data. In this approach, we derive the physical properties of the water‐saturated sandstone reservoir, based on the following inputs: V_P, V_S, ρ and the shale volume from seismic analysis, the average properties of sand grains, and formation‐water properties. Next, by comparing the in‐situ fluid‐saturated properties with the 100% formation‐water‐saturated reservoir properties, we determine the bulk modulus and density of the in‐situ fluid. Solving three simultaneous equations (relating the saturations of water, oil and gas in terms of the bulk modulus, density and the total saturation), we compute the saturation of each fluid. We use a real time‐lapse seismic data set from an oilfield in the North Sea for a case study.