Tsunami hazard assessment of Canada

We present a preliminary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment of Canadian coastlines from local and far-field, earthquake, and large submarine landslide sources. Analyses involve published historical, palaeotsunami and palaeoseismic data, modelling, and empirical relations between fault area, earthquake magnitude, and tsunami run-up. The cumulative estimated tsunami hazard for potentially damaging run-up (≥1.5 m) of the outer Pacific coastline is ~40–80 % in 50 years, respectively one and two orders of magnitude greater than the outer Atlantic (~1–15 %) and the Arctic (<1 %). For larger run-up with significant damage potential (≥3 m), Pacific hazard is ~10–30 % in 50 years, again much larger than both the Atlantic (~1–5 %) and Arctic (<1 %). For outer Pacific coastlines, the ≥1.5 m run-up hazard is dominated by far-field subduction zones, but the probability of run-up ≥3 m is highest for local megathrust sources, particularly the Cascadia subduction zone; thrust sources further north are also significant, as illustrated by the 2012 Haida Gwaii event. For Juan de Fuca and Georgia Straits, the Cascadia megathrust dominates the hazard at both levels. Tsunami hazard on the Atlantic coastline is dominated by poorly constrained far-field subduction sources; a lesser hazard is posed by near-field continental slope failures similar to the 1929 Grand Banks event. Tsunami hazard on the Arctic coastline is poorly constrained, but is likely dominated by continental slope failures; a hypothetical earthquake source beneath the Mackenzie delta requires further study. We highlight areas susceptible to locally damaging landslide-generated tsunamis, but do not quantify the hazard.     

Modeling North American Freshwater Runoff through the Last Glacial Cycle

The Northern Hemisphere ice sheets decayed rapidly during deglacial phases of the ice-age cycle, producing meltwater fluxes that may have been of sufficient magnitude to perturb oceanic circulation. The continental record of ice-sheet history is more obscured during the growth and advance of the last great ice sheets, ca. 120,000–20,000 yr B.P., but ice cores tell of high-amplitude, millennial-scale climate fluctuations that prevailed throughout this period. These climatic excursions would have provoked significant fluctuation of ice-sheet margins and runoff variability whenever ice sheets extended to mid-latitudes, giving a complex pattern of freshwater delivery to the oceans. A model of continental surface hydrology is coupled with an ice-dynamics model simulating the last glacial cycle in North America. Meltwater discharged from ice sheets is either channeled down continental drainage pathways or stored temporarily in large systems of proglacial lakes that border the retreating ice-sheet margin. The coupled treatment provides quantitative estimates of the spatial and temporal patterns of freshwater flux to the continental margins. Results imply an intensified surface hydrological environment when ice sheets are present, despite a net decrease in precipitation during glacial periods. Diminished continental evaporation and high levels of meltwater production combine to give mid-latitude runoff values that are highly variable through the glacial cycle, but are two to three times in excess of modern river fluxes; drainage to the North Atlantic via the St. Lawrence, Hudson, and Mississippi River catchments averages 0.356 Sv for the period 60,000–10,000 yr B.P., compared to 0.122 Sv for the past 10,000 yr. High-amplitude meltwater pulses to the Gulf of Mexico, North Atlantic, and North Pacific occur throughout the glacial period, with ice-sheet geometry controlling intricate patterns of freshwater routing variability. Runoff from North America is staged in the final deglaciation, with a stepped sequence of pulses through the Mississippi, St. Lawrence, Arctic, and Hudson Strait drainages.     

Measurements of the 44-μm band of H2O ice deposited on amorphous carbon and amorphous silicate substrates

We present 20–110 µm absorbance spectra of H₂O ice, deposited on amorphous carbon and silicate substrates, obtained over the 10–140 K temperature range. The measurements have been carried out in a manner that simulates the deposition, warming and cooling of H₂O ice mantles on interstellar and circumstellar grains. For H₂O ice films deposited on these substrates we find (i) similar 44-µm-band peak wavelength temperature dependences, (ii) no bandshape differences in the respective spectra, and (iii) a structural phase transition occurring between 120 and 130 K. In comparison with published data obtained using a polyethylene substrate, the 52-µm feature (the longitudinal optical mode) observed in our spectra is less prominent. This suggests the presence of material-dependent substrate effects that can alter the appearance of the H₂O far-infrared spectrum. The crystallization temperature of H₂O ice films deposited on our amorphous silicate substrate is significantly different from that reported by Moore et al. (1994) , who found crystallization temperatures down to < 20 K for ice also deposited on an amorphous silicate substrate. This is attributed to differences in the surface structures of the respective substrates. This may indicate that, at least in the context of laboratory measurements, substrate material composition is not as significant as substrate surface structure.     

Paleoecology and geochronology of glacial Lake Hind during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition: A context for Folsom surface finds on the Canadian Prairies

Stratigraphic and paleoecologic (palynomorph, macrobotanical) data obtained from a cutbank of the Souris River in southwestern Manitoba establish some fundamental parameters of Folsom land‐use in association with a proglacial lake on the Canadian Prairies. By dating the regression of glacial Lake Hind, we observed that recorded Folsom sites are restricted to areas of the Hind basin drained shortly before 10,400 yr B.P. This pattern may therefore record the interception of seasonal resources on recently‐drained proglacial lake surfaces. Based on paleovegetation reconstructions, we note that these surfaces were rapidly colonized by emergent and aquatic vegetation following regression, generating a viable resource base for Folsom hunter‐gatherers. However, low plant productivity and diversity may have greatly limited the extent to which this locale was exploited, in contrast to nonperiglacial regions on the Plains. We also suggest that wetland plant succession during the Pleistocene‐Holocene transition was due, at least locally, to climate‐forced fluctuations in groundwater levels. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.