Untersuchung über die Wetterabhängigkeit des Todeseintritts

Zusammenfassung Es werden 1257 meist stundengenaue standesamtliche Sterbedaten des Landkreises Sonthofen im Allgäu aus den Jahren 1951 und 1952 mit lückenlosen, stundenmäßigen Aufzeichnungen des Wetterverlaufs nach verschiedenen statistischen Methoden korreliert. In den zeitlichen Teilkollektiven der einzelnen Wettervorgänge (Aufgleiten, labile Vorgänge, Frontdurchgänge, Zyklonalföhn, antizyklonales Absinken) wird eine innerhalb des Zufallsbereichs liegende Erhöhung der Sterbefälle bei hohem Aufgleiten, Kaltfronten und Okklusionen, eine Verringerung der Todesfälle bei Zyklonalföhn gefunden. Nur bei Einbeziehung von Sterbefällen in der unmittelbaren zeitlichen Umgebung der Wettervorgänge ergibt sich eine signifikant überzufällige Erhöhung der Sterbeziffern über die Grundwahrscheinlichkeit für Frontdurchgänge, labile Vorgänge, Aufgleitprozesse und Föhndurchbrüche. Mit einer modifizierten, auf selektivem Zählverfahren beruhendenn-Methode werden Summenkurven der Todesfälle über den Zeitraum von 24 Vor- und 24 Nachstunden für Kaltfrontdurchgänge, labile Vorgänge, Warmfronten und Föhneinbrüche ermittelt. Signifikante Gipfelwerte finden sich bei Kaltfronten und labilen Vorgängen; bei Warmfronten und Föhn fallen Kurvengipfel, die etwas unterhalb der Grenze des Zufallsbereichs bleiben, in das Vorstadium des Vorgangs. Ein Vergleich der mit verschiedenen Methoden gewonnenen Ergebnisse läßt für Kaltfronten, Okklusionen und labile Vorgänge eine Einflußmöglichkeit auf den Todeseintritt besser gesichert erscheinen als für Warmfronten und zyklonale Föhnvorgänge. Schließlich werden Tage mit hoher Sterbeziffer auf Wetterabhängigkeit untersucht. Es zeigt sich, daß Tage mit Beginn von Störvorgängen nach antizyklonalem Stadium mit überzufälliger Häufigkeit hohe Sterbeziffern aufweisen. Auf die Notwendigkeit, die Ergebnisse statistischer Korrelation durch Anwendung verschiedenartiger Methoden sicherzustellen, wird hingewiesen.

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Summary The present paper gives an account of the correlations between 1257 deaths officially and in the majority of cases registered by the hour in 1951 and 1952 for the district of Sonthofen (Germany) on one hand and the weather situation recorded at the same hours on the other hand. An increase in deaths lying within the random limits is found at the following weather situations: upslide motion, cold front, occlusion, a diminution of deaths with cyclonic foehn. There is but an increase in the cases of death beyond the range of hazard at the very temporal surroundings of the weather changes. By using a particular numbering method (n-method) curves are collected which yield the highest values for cold front passages and labile situations; with warm front and irruptions of foehn the maxima precede their entrance. A comparison of the results obtained by different methods shows that the influence to death is better secured for cold fronts, occlusions, and labile processes than for warm fronts and cyclonic foehn. Finally the days with a special great number of cases of deaths are examined for their dependence on weather situations. It is found that days with beginning weather perturbations after an anticyclonic phase show a significant increase of the number of deaths. It will be necessary to verify the results of these statistical correlations by different other methods.

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Résumé L'auteur étudie la corrélation entre 1257 cas de décès officiellement enregistrés et exactement datés (la plupart jusqu'à l'heure du décès) du district de Sonthofen dans l'Allgäu en 1951 et 1952 ainsi que les relevés horaires du temps météorologique. Les ensembles statistiques partiels correspondant à des ascendances frontales, des situations pseudolabiles, des passages frontaux, des cas de foehn et de subsidence révèlent des augmentations infra-aléatoires de décès lors des glissements ascendants frontaux, des fronts froids et des occlusions et une diminution lors du foehn cyclonal. Ce n'est qu'en considérant une marge de temps restreinte autour de ces phénomènes météorologiques que l'on obtient des augmentations supra-aléatoires des décès lors des passages frontaux, de la pseudolabilité, des glissements ascendants et des irruptions du foehn. Une méthode statistique spéciale (méthode den) fait apparaître des maxima de fréquence au voisinage des fronts froids et des processus pseudolabiles; lors des fronts chauds et du foehn, ces maxima infra-aléatoires se placent avant le phénomène. Une comparaison des résultats provenant de différentes méthodes d'investigation fait croire à une influence sur les décès plus probable dans le cas des fronts froids, des occlusions et des processus pseudolabiles que dans celui des fronts chauds et du foehn cyclonal. Enfin on étudie les jours à indice de mortalité élevé en rapport avec le temps; il s'avère que les jours de début de perturbations après un stade anticyclonique coïncident avec des fréquences de décès supra-aléatoires. Il apparaît nécessaire de vérifier les résultats de recherches de ce genre par l'application de plusieurs méthodes d'analyse.

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