Projections of climate change impacts on river flood conditions in Germany by combining three different RCMs with a regional eco-hydrological model

A general increase in precipitation has been observed in Germany in the last century, and potential changes in flood generation and intensity are now at the focus of interest. The aim of the paper is twofold: a) to project the future flood conditions in Germany accounting for various river regimes (from pluvial to nival-pluvial regimes) and under different climate scenarios (the high, A2, low, B1, and medium, A1B, emission scenarios) and b) to investigate sources of uncertainty generated by climate input data and regional climate models. Data of two dynamical Regional Climate Models (RCMs), REMO (REgional Model) and CCLM (Cosmo-Climate Local Model), and one statistical-empirical RCM, Wettreg (Wetterlagenbasierte Regionalisierungsmethode: weather-type based regionalization method), were applied to drive the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model), which was previously validated for 15 gauges in Germany. At most of the gauges, the 95 and 99 percentiles of the simulated discharge using SWIM with observed climate data had a good agreement with the observed discharge for 1961–2000 (deviation within ±10 %). However, the simulated discharge had a bias when using RCM climate as input for the same period. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions were fitted to the annual maximum series of river runoff for each realization for the control and scenario periods, and the changes in flood generation over the whole simulation time were analyzed. The 50-year flood values estimated for two scenario periods (2021–2060, 2061–2100) were compared to the ones derived from the control period using the same climate models. The results driven by the statistical-empirical model show a declining trend in the flood level for most rivers, and under all climate scenarios. The simulations driven by dynamical models give various change directions depending on region, scenario and time period. The uncertainty in estimating high flows and, in particular, extreme floods remains high, due to differences in regional climate models, emission scenarios and multi-realizations generated by RCMs.     

A common mode of variability of African and Indian monsoon rainfall at decadal timescale

There are many factors and mechanisms capable of influencing and perturbing rainfall in both African and Indian monsoon regions. Using observed data and ensembles of Atmospheric General Circulation Model simulations, evidence is presented that an association between the two systems exists on decadal timescales and the mechanism responsible for this common mode is suggested. Decadal variability of rainfall in the two monsoon systems results from a large scale forcing induced by an interplay of different ocean basins. The emerging pattern is characterized by warmer (cooler) equatorial and cooler (warmer) extratropical regions, more visible in the northern hemisphere. This large scale forcing pattern leads to an upper-level pressure gradient between the equator and the monsoon regions which modifies also the Tropical Easterly Jet, thus providing a potential link between the African and Indian monsoon. The response is baroclinic, therefore at low levels, the pressure gradient reverses and leads to increased (reduced) pressure over the Saharan and Indian region, both being favourable for a weakening (strengthening) of the respective monsoons. Therefore, the predictability of the monsoon trends depends mainly on how well the sea surface temperature modes, which modulate the monsoons variability, can be predicted.     

The effect of impact obliquity on shock heating in planetesimal collisions

Collisions between planetesimals in the early solar system were a common and fundamental process. Most collisions occurred at an oblique incidence angle, yet the influence of impact angle on heating in collisions is not fully understood. We have conducted a series of shock physics simulations to quantify oblique heating processes, and find that both impact angle and target curvature are important in quantifying the amount of heating in a collision. We find an expression to estimate the heating in an oblique collision compared to that in a vertical incidence collision. We have used this expression to quantify heating in the Rhealsilvia‐forming impact on Vesta, and find that there is slightly more heating in a 45° impact than in a vertical impact. Finally, we apply these results to Monte Carlo simulations of collisional processes in the early solar system, and determine the overall effect of impact obliquity from the range of impacts that occurred on a meteorite parent body. For those bodies that survived 100 Myr without disruption, it is not necessary to account for the natural variation in impact angle, as the amount of heating was well approximated by a fixed impact angle of 45°. However, for disruptive impacts, this natural variation in impact angle should be accounted for, as around a quarter of bodies were globally heated by at least 100 K in a variable‐angle model, an order of magnitude higher than under an assumption of a fixed angle of 45°.     

The light curve of the semiregular variable L2 Puppis – I. A recent dimming event from dust

The nearby Mira-like variable L₂ Pup is shown to be undergoing an unprecedented dimming episode. The stability of the period rules out intrinsic changes to the star, leaving dust formation along the line of sight as the most likely explanation. Episodic dust obscuration events are fairly common in carbon stars but have not been seen in oxygen-rich stars. We also present a 10-μm spectrum, taken with the Japanese Infrared Telescope in Space satellite, showing strong silicate emission that can be fitted with a detached, thin dust shell, containing silicates and corundum.     

Small Comets in the High Atmosphere

Recent claims of small icy comets disintegrating in the high atmosphere point to a component of comets in the form of loose aggregates of dust. This could be understood in terms of Lyttleton;'s theory of comet formation by accretion of interstellar grains. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The fall and recovery of the Tagish Lake meteorite

Abstract— The Tagish Lake C2 (ungrouped) carbonaceous chondrite fall of January 18, 2000, delivered ?10 kg of one of the most primitive and physically weak meteorites yet studied. In this paper, we report the detailed circumstances of the fall and the recovery of all documented Tagish Lake fragments from a strewnfield at least 16 km long and 3 to 4 km wide. Nearly 1 kg of “pristine” meteorites were collected one week after the fall before new snow covered the strewnfield; the majority of the recovered mass was collected during the spring melt. Ground eyewitnesses and a variety of instrument‐recorded observations of the Tagish Lake fireball provide a refined estimate of the fireball trajectory. From its calculated orbit and its similarity to the remotely sensed properties of the D‐ and P‐class asteroids, the Tagish Lake carbonaceous chondrite apparently represents these outer belt asteroids. The cosmogenic nuclide results and modeled production indicate a prefall radius of 2.1–2.4 m (corresponding to 60–90 tons) consistent with the observed fireball energy release. The bulk oxygen‐isotope compositions plot just below the terrestrial fractionation line (TFL), following a trend similar to the CM meteorite mixing line. The bulk density of the Tagish Lake material (1.64 ± 0.02 g/cm³) is the same, within uncertainty, as the total bulk densities of several C‐class and especially D‐ and P‐class asteroids. The high microporosity of Tagish Lake samples (?40%) provides an obvious candidate material for the composition of low bulk density primitive asteroids.     

UBVRIJH photometry of two new luminous δ Scuti stars and the discovery of δ Scuti pulsation in the most evolved Ap star known

Time-series photometry of the Hipparcos variable stars HD 199434 and 21190 is reported. Both stars are pulsators of the δ Scuti type. Reclassifications of the MK types of the stars, based on new spectrograms, are given. HD 21190 is found to be F2III SrEuSi:, making it the most evolved Ap star known. Its Strömgren photometric indices support the peculiar spectral type. It is also one of the most evolved δ Scuti stars known. Its combined Ap– δ Scuti nature makes it an important test of models of pulsation in peculiar stars recently developed by Turcotte et al., although it is more extreme than any model they examined. Physical parameters of both stars are estimated from Strömgren and H β photometry, and Hipparcos absolute magnitudes. We attempt mode identifications based on amplitude ratios and phase differences from our photometry. The dominant pulsation of HD 21190 may be an overtone radial mode. The model fits for HD 199434 are even less satisfactory, but favour an ℓ=2 mode. Given the good quality and wavelength coverage of our data, the poor results from the application of the photometric theory of mode identification may call into question the use of that technique.     

On the effects of a sudden change in the albedo of the Earth

Acquisition by the upper atmosphere of some 10¹⁴ gm of cometary dust would have major implications on the Earth's climate. Pluvial activity would increase dramatically as temperature differences between sea and land widened. Global distribution of precipitation would be controlled by the density of the dust in the atmosphere; for a partially reflective blanket, a fraction of solar energy would still reach ground level creating new climatic zones. The totally undecomposed state of the interiors of Siberian Mammoths and the curious distribution, often uphill, of erratic boulders point to unbelievably sudden and severe conditions at the onset and possibly end of a glacial period. We suggest that a reflective blanket of particles could produce such conditions.