Photonic dating of prehistoric irrigation canals at Phoenix,Arizona, U.S.A.*

A number of archeological features, including in‐filled irrigation canals of uncertain prehistoric age, occur within the Holocene floodplain of the Salt River at Phoenix, Arizona. In the first attempt to date irrigation‐canal sediments using luminescence methods, we obtained age estimates of 1640 ± 190 yr B.P. (1σ) (multi‐aliquot or MA) and 1621 ± 95 yr B.P. (post‐IR single‐aliquot‐regenerative‐dose or SAR) for a single sample from the base of the oldest canal‐infilling deposits (all IR‐PSL ages reported in this article are in calendar years before A.D. 2001). For the remaining canal samples, weighted mean luminescence ages of 819 ± 45 yr (MA) and 826 ± 32 yr (post‐IR SAR) were obtained. Thus from photonic dating we can resolve the first and last phases of canal use at this Phoenix site: initiation at ca. 1600 years ago and final use at ca. 800 years ago. These results demonstrate the power of SAR luminescence sediment dating to enhance our understanding of prehistoric irrigation‐canal development and usage here and elsewhere in the world. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

On the aging of comets

This study is based primarily on the calculations of comet orbits over ~ 10⁶ years for 160 short-period comets by Harold F. Levison and Martin J. Duncan from which there are calculated “ablation AGES”. There are positive statistical correlations (having many deviations) with radial nongravitational forces, comet activity measures, and dust-to-gas ratios in the spectra, in the sense that comets of greater “AGES” tend to be less active and to show less dust in their spectra than comets of lesser “AGES”.     

An Attempted Explanation for the Discrepancy between Internal and External Errors in Statistical Adjustments

It is shown that underparameterization of models used in statistical adjustments is at least in part responsible for the discrepancies between so-called internal and external rms errors (standard deviations), frequently encountered in derived sets of statistical parameters.     

Properties of the clouds of Venus,as inferred from airborne observations of its near-infrared reflectivity spectrum

We have measured the shape and absolute value of Venus' reflectivity spectrum in the 1.2-to 4.0-μm spectral region with a circular variable filter wheel spectrometer having a spectral resolution of 1.5%. The instrument package was mounted on the 91-cm telescope of NASA Ames Kuiper Airborne Observatory, and the measurements were obtained at an altitude of about 41,000 feet, when Venus had a phase angle of 86°. Comparing these spectra with synthetic spectra generated with a multiple-scattering computer code, we infer a number of properties of the Venus clouds. We obtain strong confirmatory evidence that the clouds are made of a water solution of sulfuric acid in their top unit optical depth and find that the clouds are made of this material down to an optical depth of at least 25. In addition, we determine that the acid concentration is 84 ± 2% H_2SO4 by weight in the top unit optical depth, that the total optical depth of the clouds is 37.5 ± 12.5, and that the cross-sectional weighted mean particle radius lies between 0.5 and 1.4 μm in the top unit optical depth of the clouds. These results have been combined with a recent determination of the location of the clouds' bottom boundary [Marov et al., Cosmic Res.14, 637–642 (1976)] to infer additional properties about Venus' atmosphere. We find that the average volume mixing ratio of H₂SO₄ and H₂O contained in the cloud material both equal approximately 2× 10^?6. Employing vapor pressure arguments, we show that the acid concentration equals 84 ± 6% at the cloud bottom and that the water vapor mixing ratio beneath the clouds lies between 6 × 10^?4 and 10^?2.     

Synoptic charts of solar 9.1 cm and coronal hole data

Synoptic charts for Carrington rotations 1601–1605 (May–August, 1973) were prepared using the central meridian column of the daily 9.1 cm Stanford solar radio maps. These charts were especially contoured to emphasize temperatures near the quiet solar disk level. Synoptic charts of coronal holes from the ATM-Skylab were superimposed on the radio data to investigate the ability of the radio charts to show coronal holes. This brief period is unfortunately the only interval for which both sets of data are available. The conclusion reached is that in spite of certain problems due to active regions, side-lobe effects and a rather large beamwidth, the 9.1 cm synoptic charts can be of substantial value in identifying large coronal holes, especially during periods of low solar activity. Such synoptic charts, therefore, for the years 1962–1973 that Stanford data are available, could enhance significantly the meagre data pool for coronal holes prior to the Skylab mission.     

Quasi-periodic burst structure at 2.8 GHz and its relationship to burst morphological parameters

Fifteen examples of quasi-periodic 2.8 GHz burst emission observed at the La Posta Astrogeophysical Observatory during the period December 1966 through May 1973 were identified. The periods of these events and those of 22 additional events previously reported in the literature were plotted against burst morphological parameters. The relationship between period and event energy was found to be considerably weaker than initially reported by Cribbens and Matthews.     

Modelling climate and land-use change impacts with SWIM: lessons learnt from multiple applications

Abstract

The Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) is a continuous-time semi-distributed ecohydrological model, integrating hydrological processes, vegetation, nutrients and erosion. It was developed for impact assessment at the river basin scale. SWIM is coupled to GIS and has modest data requirements. During the last decade SWIM was extensively tested in mesoscale and large catchments for hydrological processes (discharge, groundwater), nutrients, extreme events (floods and low flows), crop yield and erosion. Several modules were developed further (wetlands and snow dynamics) or introduced (glaciers, reservoirs). After validation, SWIM can be applied for impact assessment. Four exemplary studies are presented here, and several questions important to the impact modelling community are discussed. For which processes and areas can the model be used? Where are the limits in model application? How to apply the model in data-poor situations or in ungauged basins? How to use the model in basins subject to strong anthropogenic pressure?

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Perrin     

Was the M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.5 1952 Kern County,California, earthquake induced (or triggered)?

Several recent studies have presented evidence that significant induced earthquakes occurred in a number of oil-producing regions during the early and mid-twentieth century related to either production or wastewater injection. We consider whether the 21 July 1952 M_w 7.5 Kern County earthquake might have been induced by production in the Wheeler Ridge oil field. The mainshock, which was not preceded by any significant foreshocks, occurred 98 days after the initial production of oil in Eocene strata at depths reaching 3 km, within ~1 km of the White Wolf fault (WWF). Based on this spatial and temporal proximity, we explore a potential causal relationship between the earthquake and oil production. While production would have normally be expected to have reduced pore pressure, inhibiting failure on the WWF, we present an analytical model based on industry stratigraphic data and best estimates of parameters whereby an impermeable splay fault adjacent to the main WWF could plausibly have blocked direct pore pressure effects, allowing the poroelastic stress change associated with production to destabilize the WWF, promoting initial failure. This proof-of-concept model can also account for the 98-day delay between the onset of production and the earthquake. While the earthquake clearly released stored tectonic stress, any initial perturbation on or near a major fault system can trigger a larger rupture. Our proposed mechanism provides an explanation for why significant earthquakes are not commonly induced by production in proximity to major faults.     

Principal components in active galactic nuclei variability data and the estimation of the flux contributions from different components

It has been found that the near-infrared flux variations of Seyfert galaxies satisfy relations of the form   F_i ≈α _{i j} +β _{i j} F_j   , where F_i , F_j are the fluxes in filters i and j ; and  α _{i , j} , β _{i , j}   are constants. These relations have been used to estimate the constant contributions of the non-variable underlying galaxies. The paper attempts a formal treatment of the estimation procedure, allowing for the possible presence of a third component, namely non-variable hot dust. In an analysis of a sample of 38 Seyfert galaxies, inclusion of the hot dust component improves the model fit in approximately half the cases. All derived dust temperatures are below 300 K, in the range 540–860 K or above 1300 K. A noteworthy feature is the estimation of confidence intervals for the component contributions: this is achieved by bootstrapping. It is also pointed out that the model implies that such data could be fruitfully analysed in terms of principal components.