Evaluation of delta change and bias correction methods for future daily precipitation: intermodel cross-validation using ENSEMBLES simulations

Due to inherent limitations in climate models, their output is biased in relation to observed climate and as such does not provide reliable climate projections. In this study, nine methods used to account for biases in daily precipitation are tested. First, cross-validation tests were made using a set of ENSEMBLES regional model simulations to gain insights in the potential performance of the methods in the future climate. The results show that quantile mapping type methods, being able to modify the shape of the precipitation distribution, often outperform other types of methods. Yet, as the performance depends on time of the year, location and part of the distribution considered, it is not possible to distinguish one universally best performing method. In addition, the improvement relative to the projections that would have been obtained assuming unchanged climate is relatively modest, particularly in the early twentyfirst century conditions. Further tests with different method combinations show that the projections could be potentially improved by using several well performing methods in parallel. In the second part of the study, contributions of method and model differences to the overall variation of precipitation projections are assessed. It is shown that although intermodel differences play an important role, uncertainties related to intermethod differences are substantial, particularly in the tails of the distribution. This suggests that method uncertainty should be taken into account when constructing daily precipitation projections, possibly by using several methods in parallel.     

HydrIS: An open source GIS decision support system for groundwater management (Morocco)

A regional groundwater management system has been elaborated, integrating Relational Database Management System (RDBMS) and various web services. It consists of web geospatial application so-called HydrIS (Hydrogeological Information System) based on Open Source components and technologies, leading to a feasible and low-cost solution. Therefore, HydrIS permits delivery of data from a number of heterogeneous sources to standards supported by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). The protocols used for exchanging data are also derived from OGC standards, i.e., WMS (Web Mapping Service), WFS (Web Feature Service), and WCS (Web Coverage Service). Finally, a geoportal was developed, which consists of client-applications that communicate with different Web Services (WMS, WCS, and WFS) through http-requests.     

Converting to organic agriculture—Danish farmers' views and motivations

Expanded organic food production has been an issue of public debate in Denmark since its promotion by two government-sponsored plans. Yet the number of organic farms, constituting 5% of alt Danish farms, is still small. Farmers' attitudes and motivations around converting their farms to organic agriculture were surveyed in the counties of Ribe and Vestsj?lland in order to assess the feasibility of expansion. New organic farmers come either from the ranks of conventional farmers or from ‘beginners’ who initiate organic agriculture from the start. Only 7% of conventional farmers plan to convert their farms by the year 2003, but beginners will have increasing importance and augment the number. Farmers most frequently mentioned consideration for the environment as a reason for conversion. A considerable expansion of organic agriculture will be difficult, due to an insufficient number of farmers interested in organic agriculture. A high number of less productive hobby or spare-time farmers among new organic farmers also hinders expanded organic food production. Organic agriculture shows parallels to conventional agriculture, with a surplus of very small and very large farms, regional specialisation, and oil-farm specialisation.     

A numerical study of the string function using a primitive equation ocean model

Abstract

We use results from a primitive-equation ocean numerical model (SCRUM) to test a theoretical 'string function' formulation put forward by Tyler and Käse in another article in this issue. The string function acts as a stream function for the large-scale potential energy flow under the combined beta and topographic effects. The model results verify that large-scale anomalies propagate along the string function contours with a speed correctly given by the cross-string gradient. For anomalies having a scale similar to the Rossby radius, material rates of change in the layer mass following the string velocity are balanced by material rates of change in relative vorticity following the flow velocity. It is shown that large-amplitude anomalies can be generated when wind stress is resonant with the string function configuration.     

Mean-field concept and direct numerical simulations of rotating magnetoconvection and the geodynamo

Mean-field theory describes magnetohydrodynamic processes leading to large-scale magnetic fields in various cosmic objects. In this study magnetoconvection and dynamo processes in a rotating spherical shell are considered. Mean fields are defined by azimuthal averaging. In the framework of mean-field theory, the coefficients which determine the traditional representation of the mean electromotive force, including derivatives of the mean magnetic field up to the first order, are crucial for analyzing and simulating dynamo action. Two methods are developed to extract mean-field coefficients from direct numerical simulations of the mentioned processes. While the first method does not use intrinsic approximations, the second one is based on the second-order correlation approximation. There is satisfying agreement of the results of both methods for sufficiently slow fluid motions. Both methods are applied to simulations of rotating magnetoconvection and a quasi-stationary geodynamo. The mean-field induction effects described by these coefficients, e.g., the α-effect, are highly anisotropic in both examples. An α²-mechanism is suggested along with a strong γ-effect operating outside the inner core tangent cylinder. The turbulent diffusivity exceeds the molecular one by at least one order of magnitude in the geodynamo example. With the aim to compare mean-field simulations with corresponding direct numerical simulations, a two-dimensional mean-field model involving all previously determined mean-field coefficients was constructed. Various tests with different sets of mean-field coefficients reveal their action and significance. In the magnetoconvection and geodynamo examples considered here, the match between direct numerical simulations and mean-field simulations is only satisfying if a large number of mean-field coefficients are involved. In the magnetoconvection example, the azimuthally averaged magnetic field resulting from the numerical simulation is in good agreement with its counterpart in the mean-field model. However, this match is not completely satisfactory in the geodynamo case anymore. Here the traditional representation of the mean electromotive force ignoring higher than first-order spatial derivatives of the mean magnetic field is no longer a good approximation.     

Storing and retrieving changes in a sequence of polygons

Abstract

Several notions of optimality are introduced for two-dimensional geometric versioning of polygons. The storage required for a series of versions is minimized by determining references and restating versions from the references. Structural properties are presented as well as algorithms which yield optimal or near-optimal references for some of the optimality notions. Several of the algorithms are shown to be efficient.     

Pre‐Glacial Landform Inheritance in a Glaciated Shield Landscape

We seek to quantify glacial erosion in a low relief shield landscape in northern Sweden. We use GIS analyses of digital elevation models and field mapping of glacial erosion indicators to explore the geomorphology of three granite areas with the same sets of landforms and of similar relative relief, but with different degrees of glacial streamlining. Area 1, the Parkajoki district, shows no streamlining and so is a type area for negligible glacial erosion. Parkajoki retains many delicate pre‐glacial features, including tors and saprolites with exposure histories of over 1 Myr. Area 2 shows the onset of significant glacial erosion, with the development of glacially streamlined bedrock hills. Area 3 shows extensive glacial streamlining and the development of hill forms such as large crag and tails and roches moutonnées. Preservation of old landforms is almost complete in Area 1, due to repeated covers of cold‐based, non‐erosive ice. In Area 2, streamlined hills appear but sheet joint patterns indicate that the lateral erosion of granite domes needed to form flanking cliffs and to give a streamlined appearance is only of the order of a few tens of metres. The inheritance of large‐scale, pre‐glacial landforms, notably structurally controlled bedrock hills and low relief palaeosurfaces, remains evident even in Area 3, the zone of maximum glacial erosion. Glacial erosion here has been concentrated in valleys, leading to the dissection and loss of area of palaeosurfaces. Semi‐quantitative estimates of glacial erosion on inselbergs and palaeosurfaces and in valleys provide mean totals for glacial erosion of 8 ± 8 m in Area 1 and 27 ± 11 m in Area 3. These estimates support previous views that glacial erosion depths and rates on shields can be low and that pre‐glacial landforms can survive long periods of glaciation, including episodes of wet‐based flow.     

Vertical structure of the Venus cloud top from the VeRa and VIRTIS observations onboard Venus Express

We investigate the Venus cloud top structure by joint analysis of the data from Visual and Thermal Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (VIRTIS) and the atmospheric temperature sounding by the Radio Science experiment (VeRa) onboard Venus Express. The cloud top altitude and aerosol scale height are derived by fitting VIRTIS spectra at 4–5 μm with temperature profiles taken from the VeRa radio occultation. Our study shows gradual descent of the cloud top from 67.2 ± 1.9 km in low latitudes to 62.8 ± 4.1 km at the pole and decrease of the aerosol scale height from 3.8 ± 1.6 km to 1.7 ± 2.4 km. These changes correlate with the mesospheric temperature field. In the cold collar and high latitudes the cloud top position remarkably coincides with the sharp minima in temperature inversions suggesting importance of radiative cooling in their maintenance. This behaviour is consistent with the earlier observations. Spectral trend of the cloud top altitude derived from a comparison with the earlier observations in 1.6–27 μm wavelength range is qualitatively consistent with sulphuric acid composition of the upper cloud and suggests that particle size increases from equator to pole.