The role of social norms in climate adaptation: Mediating risk perception and flood insurance purchase

Flood insurance plays an important role in climate adaptation by recovering insured losses in the event of catastrophic flooding. Voluntary adoption of flood insurance has been seen as a function of risk perception that is shaped by social norms. This paper attempts to clarify the relationship between these factors. It is based on a household survey conducted in the eastern cities of Australia and involving a total of 501 randomly selected residents. Results of a path analysis show that the likelihood of having flood insurance cover was associated with perceived social norms, but not perceived flood risk. In addition, perceived norms and risk were statistically related to each other. It is concluded that social norms played a mediating role between insuring decision and risk perception. Risk perception might influence the insuring decision indirectly through shaping perception of social norms. This implies that adaptive behaviour is not necessarily a function of risk perception, but an outcome of its impacts upon the ways in which the individuals situate themselves in their social circles or the society. There is a feedback process in which individual perceptions of risk manifest as both a cause and effect, shaping and being shaped by the socio-cultural context.     

回顾科学发展的黄金时代

我想根据自己的经历回顾过去 4 0年来美国科学的发展 ,我有幸在这个时期中成长为一名地球物理学家。这个时期被称为科学的黄金时代 ,因为在基础科学和工程科学中有大量发现和进展。在这个时期 ,不仅有伟大的创造和充足的资金支持 ,还获得了很多新知识 ,正是这些知识产生了新的工业并使我们增加了对环境的理解。对于地球物理学 ,正是在这个时期使用现代技术对海底进行了勘测 ,建立了全球地震台网 ,用实验室实验模拟深部地球环境 ,将示踪元素化学应用于岩石系统。也是在这个时期 ,对其它行星做了探测并从月球取回了岩样 ,创立了板块构造理论。在其它领域也有巨大进展 ,如分子生物学与疾病性质研究 ,以及农业绿色革命等。许多科学家在开始自己的研究时 ,并未想到后来会有那么多的创效益应用。许多年轻的科学家不珍惜美国科学尤其是地球物理学的繁荣。在四十年代以前 ,美国有较强的技术和工业生产优势 ,但在科学方面不如西欧 ,类似于现在的日本。那时基础研究主要在得到私人慈善机构支持的大学以及少数政府机构和工业实验室中进行。例如州立大学和地质调查局承担了地质填图 ,一些石油公司实验室开拓了勘探地球物理。除了地学外 ,政府对基础科学的资助很少。那时世     

Uncertainty in modelling of faecal coliform overland transport associated with manure application in Maryland

Concerns for microbial safety of surface water facilitate development of predictive models that estimate concentrations and total numbers of pathogen and indicator organisms leaving manure‐fertilized fields in overland flow during runoff events. Spatial variability of bacterial concentrations in applied manure introduces high uncertainty in the model predictions. The objective of this work was to evaluate the uncertainty in model predictions of the manure‐borne bacteria overland transport caused by limited information on the spatial distribution of bacteria in surface‐applied manure. Experiments were carried out at the ARS Beltsville experimental watershed site (OPE3) in Maryland. Dairy bovine manure was applied at a 59·3 t/ha rate on the 3·55 hectare experimental field. Faecal coliform (FC) concentrations in manure measured in 2004, 2005, 2007, and 2009 varied by 4 orders of magnitude each year. Both runoff volume and FC concentrations in runoff water were monitored using a runoff flume equipped with a refrigerated pump sampler. Two runoff events occurred before the manure was incorporated into the soil. A bacteria transport add‐on module simulator of transport with infiltration and runoff (STWIR) was linked with the event‐based kinematic runoff and erosion model (KINEROS2) to simulate convective‐dispersive overland transport, bacteria release from manure, reversible attachment–detachment to soil, and surface straining of infiltrating bacteria. The model was successfully calibrated with the field experiment data. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out to account for the spatial variation in FC in applied manure and uncertainty in the FC distribution in manure caused by the small number of samples. A tenfold and twofold variation in FC concentrations in the runoff were obtained within the 90% probability interval when initial FC spatial distributions in the manure were represented by 5 and 29 samples, respectively. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Limiting equilibrium method for slope/drilled shaft system

The use of drilled shafts to stabilize an unstable slope has been a widely accepted practice. There are two basic design and analysis issues involved: one is to determine the global factor of safety of the drilled shafts stabilized slope and the other one is to determine the design earth thrust on the drilled shafts for structural design of the shafts. In this paper, a limiting equilibrium method of slices based solution for calculating global factor of safety (FS) of a slope with the presence of a row of drilled shafts is developed. The arching mechanisms due to the presence of the drilled shafts on slope were taken into account by a load transfer factor. The method for calculating the net force applied to the drilled shaft from the soil mass was also developed. The interrelationships among the drilled shaft location on the slope, the load transfer factor, and the global FS of the slope/shaft system were derived utilizing the developed numerical closed‐form solution. An illustrative example is presented to elucidate the use of the solution in optimizing the location of the drilled shafts on slope to achieve the desired global factor of safety of the slope/shaft system. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of seasonal crop water consumption in a vineyard using Bowen ratio‐energy balance method

Information about seasonal crop water consumption is useful to develop the appropriate irrigation scheme. Measurements of energy balance components using the Bowen ratio method were made for a complete growing season at a vineyard in the arid region of northwest China. Vine in the experiment was furrow‐irrigated using a trellis system. The measured evapotranspiration was compared with estimates using the soil water balance method. It is shown that the Bowen ratio method provided accurate estimates of evapotranspiration from the vineyard and this requires that the Bowen ratio system is appropriately installed. The energy balance components showed typical diurnal pattern with peaks that occurred around the midday, except for the ground heat flux which delayed its peak by 2–3 h. The sensible heat flux was greater than the latent heat flux and followed the net radiation closely. The ratio of the latent heat flux to net radiation was low in the early growing season and increased over time. Under the limited irrigation experienced in the vineyard, the latent heat flux was controlled by available soil moisture and the total evapotranspiration in the growing season was 253 mm. The seasonal progression of the crop coefficient is similar to that reported in the literature, with the maximum occurring during the month of September. The crop coefficient can be estimated as a non‐linear function of day of year (DOY) and used to estimate evapotranspiration from vineyards in the region. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decadal trend of climate in the Tibetan Plateau—regional temperature and precipitation

The Tibetan Plateau has one of the most complex climates in the world. Analysis of the climate in this region is important for understanding the climate change worldwide. In this study, climate patterns and trends in the Tibetan Plateau were analysed for the period from 1961 to 2001. Air temperature and precipitation were analysed on monthly and annual time scales using data collected from the National Meteorological Centre, China Meteorological Administration. Nonlinear slopes were estimated and analysed to investigate the spatial and temporal trends of air temperature and precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau using a Mann–Kendall method. Spatial analysis of air temperature and precipitation variability across the Tibetan Plateau was undertaken. While most trends are local in nature, there are general basinwide patterns. Temperature during the last several decades showed a long‐term warmer trend, especially the areas around Dingri and Zogong stations, which formed two increasing centres. Only one of the stations investigated exhibited decreasing trend, and this was not significant. Precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau has increased in most regions of the study area over the past several decades, especially in the eastern and central part, while the western Tibetan Region exhibited a decreased trend over the same period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of Two Turbulence Closure Schemes in the Modelling of Tidal Currents and Salinity in the Hooghly Estuary

This paper has two purposes. The first is to study the circulation and salinity in Hooghly Estuary, along the east coast of India and the second is to compare the performance of two turbulence closure schemes by modelling it. A breadth averaged numerical model using a sigma co-ordinate system in the vertical is briefly described. Vertical diffusion of momentum and salt are parameterized by a simple first-order turbulent closure or by a one equation model for turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) which uses a specified mixing length. The results are compared with the available neap and spring tide observations along the estuary for both low and high discharge periods.The computed elevations and currents are in reasonable agreement with the observations showing no major differences in vertical current profiles by both the turbulent schemes. However, there is a slight under-prediction of bottom currents. The salinity profiles predicted by TKE model show better matching with observations. Statistical tests are also conducted to study the comparative performance of the turbulent closure schemes. The maintenance of two layer structure in residual currents and salt variability are also studied by using the model.     

Impact of wildfire on source water contributions in Devil Creek,CA: evidence from end‐member mixing analysis

A geochemical and end‐member mixing analysis (EMMA) is undertaken in Devil Canyon catchment, located in southern California, to further understanding of watershed behaviour and source water contributions after an acute and extensive wildfire. Physical and chemical transformations in post‐fire watersheds are known to increase overland flow and decrease infiltration, mainly due to formation of a hydrophobic layer at, or near, the soil surface. However, less is known about subsurface flow response in burned watersheds. The current study incorporates EMMA to evaluate and quantify source water contributions before, and after, a catchment affected by wildfires in southern California during the fall of 2003. Pre‐ and post‐fire stream water data were available at several sampling sites within the catchment, allowing the identification of contributing water sources at varying spatial scales. Proposed end‐member observations (groundwater, overland flow, shallow subsurface flow) were also collected to constrain and develop the catchment mixing model. Post‐fire source water changes are more evident in the smaller and faster responding sub‐basin (interior sampling point). Early post‐fire storm events are dominated by overland flow with no significant soil water or groundwater flow contribution. Inter‐storm streamwater in this smaller basin shows an increase in groundwater and a decrease in soil water. In the larger, baseflow‐dominated system, source water components appear less affected by fire. A slight increase in lateral flow is observed with only a slight decrease in baseflow. Changes in the post‐fire flow regimes affect nutrient loading and chemical response of the basin. Relatively rapid recovery of the chaparral ecosystem is evidenced, with active re‐growth and evapotranspiration evidenced by the fourth post‐fire rainy season. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Late Weichselian and Holocene shoreline displacement on the west-central coast of Svalbard

Three well-developed raised marine shorelines along Nordenskioldkysten have been studied and correlated with the shoreline displacement since the last deglaciation. The marine limit of 64 m in the area is of Late Weichselian age and has been dated to 10, 900- 11, 000 years B.P. An intermediate level at 50 m is estimated to be 10, 600-10, 000 years old and demonstrates a sea level stagnation probably caused by a glacier readvance in eastern Svalbard during the Younger Dryas. A Holocene transgression culminating shortly after 6, 000 years B.P. has been stratigraphically demonstrated, and it probably correlates with the Tapes transgression of Scandinavia. No pre-Late Weichselian marine levels are found, and the large rebound can be attributed only to a Late Weichselian glaciation.