Deriving rules from activity diary data: A learning algorithm and results of computer experiments

 Activity-based models consider travel as a derived demand from the activities households need to conduct in space and time. Over the last 15 years, computational or rule-based models of activity scheduling have gained increasing interest in time-geography and transportation research. This paper argues that a lack of techniques for deriving rules from empirical data hinders the further development of rule-based systems in this area. To overcome this problem, this paper develops and tests an algorithm for inductively deriving rules from activity-diary data. The decision table formalism is used to exhaustively represent the theoretically possible decision rules that individuals may use in sequencing a given set of activities. Actual activity patterns of individuals are supplied to the system as examples. In an incremental learning process, the system progressively improves on the selection of rules used for reproducing the examples. Computer experiments based on simulated data are performed to fine-tune rule selection and rule value update functions. The results suggest that the system is effective and fairly robust for parameter settings. It is concluded, therefore, that the proposed approach opens up possibilities to derive empirically tested rule-based models of activity scheduling. Follow-up research will be concerned with testing the system on empirical data. Received: 31 January 2001 / Accepted: 13 September 2001     

Evaporation over a Heterogeneous Land Surface: EVA_GRIPS and the LITFASS-2003 Experiment—An Overview

The Evaporation at Grid/Pixel Scale (EVA_GRIPS) project was realised in order to determine the area-averaged evaporation over a heterogeneous land surface at the scale of a grid box of a regional numerical weather prediction or climate model, and at the scale of a pixel of a satellite image. EVA_GRIPS combined surface-based and airborne measurements, satellite data analysis, and numerical modelling activities. A mesoscale field experiment, LITFASS-2003, was carried out in the heterogeneous landscape around the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg (MOL) of the German Meteorological Service in May and June, 2003. The experiment was embedded in the comprehensive, operational measurement program of the MOL. Experimental determination of surface fluxes on a variety of spatial scales was achieved by employing micrometeorological flux stations, scintillometers, a combination of ground-based remote sensing instruments, and the Helipod, a turbulence probe carried by a helicopter. Surface energy fluxes were also derived from satellite data. Modelling work included the use of different Soil–Vegetation–Atmosphere Transfer schemes, a large-eddy simulation model and three mesoscale atmospheric models. The paper gives an overview on the background of EVA_GRIPS, and on the measurements and meteorological conditions during LITFASS-2003. A few general results are discussed.     

Monitoring In Situ Biodegradation of MTBE Using Multiple Rounds of Compound‐Specific Stable Carbon Isotope Analysis

At a large industrial facility, methyl tert‐butyl ether (MTBE) was released to the subsurface and dispersed into the light, non‐aqueous phase liquids (LNAPL), in the first aquifer, with the LNAPL serving as a continuous source of MTBE in groundwater. Compound‐specific isotope analysis was conducted on both MTBE and tert‐butyl alcohol (TBA) in groundwater samples collected in 2008, 2011, and 2013 from wells located along and off the center line of the MTBE plume. The study demonstrated the onset and progress of biodegradation of MTBE between 2008 and 2013. The TBA observed in 2008 appears to be derived only in part from MTBE transformation while a significant portion of TBA might be contributed directly from LNAPL sources. In 2011 to 2013, the dominant source of TBA in the mid‐gradient plume was MTBE transformation. A contribution of an offsite LNAPL source, in particular to the down‐gradient area of the plume, is possible but could not be unequivocally confirmed. The time series provided direct evidence for MTBE biodegradation, but also a valuable insight on the sources of TBA.     

Gold partitioning in melt-vapor-brine systems

We used laser-ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry to measure the solubility of gold in synthetic sulfur-free vapor and brine fluid inclusions in a vapor + brine + haplogranite + magnetite + gold metal assemblage. Experiments were conducted at 800°C, oxygen fugacity buffered at Ni-NiO (NNO), and pressures ranging from 110 to 145 MPa. The wt% NaCl eq. of vapor increases from 2.3 to 19 and that of brine decreases from 57 to 35 with increasing pressure. The composition of the vapors and brines are dominated by NaCl + KCl + FeCl₂ + H₂O. Gold concentrations in vapor and brine decrease from 36 to 5 and 50 to 28 μg/g, respectively, and the calculated vapor:brine partition coefficients for gold decrease from 0.72 to 0.17 as pressure decreases from 145 to 110 MPa. These data are consistent with the thermodynamic boundary condition that the concentration of gold in the vapor and brine must approach a common value as the critical pressure is approached along the 800°C isotherm in the NaCl-KCl-FeCl₂-HCl-H₂O system.We use the equilibrium constant for gold dissolution as AuOH⁰, extrapolated from lower temperature and overlapping pressure range, to calculate expected concentrations of AuOH⁰ in our experimental vapors. These calculations suggest that a significant quantity of gold in our experimental vapors is present as a non-hydroxide species. Possible chloridogold(I) species are hypothesized based on the positively correlated gold and chloride concentrations in our experimental vapors. The absolute concentration of gold in our synthetic vapor, brine, and melt and calculated mass partition coefficients for gold between these physicochemically distinct magmatic phases suggests that gold solubility in aqueous fluids is a function of aqueous phase salinity, specifically total chloride concentration, at magmatic conditions. However, though we highlight here the effect of salinity, the combination of our data with data sets from lower temperatures evinces a significant decrease in gold solubility as temperature drops from 800°C to 600°C. This decrease in solubility has implications for gold deposition from ascending magmatic fluids.     

Holocene environments and climate in the Mongolian Altai reconstructed from the Hoton-Nur pollen and diatom records: a step towards better understanding climate dynamics in Central Asia

This study presents the results of the palynological and diatom analyses of the sediment core recovered in Hoton-Nur Lake (48°37′18″N, 88°20′45″E, 2083 m) in 2004. Quantitative reconstruction of the Holocene vegetation and climate dynamics in the semiarid Mongolian Altai suggests that boreal woodland replaced the primarily open landscape of northwestern Mongolia at about 10 kyr BP (1 kyr = 1000 cal yr) in response to a noticeable increase in precipitation from 200–250 mm/yr to 450–550 mm/yr. A decline of the forest vegetation and a return to a predominance of open vegetation types occurred after 5 kyr BP when precipitation sums decreased to 250–300 mm/yr. Prior to 11.5 kyr BP diatom concentrations are relatively low and the lake is dominated by planktonic Cyclotella and small Fragilariaceae, suggesting the existence of a relatively deep and oligotrophic/mesotrophic lake. The great abundance of Staurosirella pinnata from the beginning of the record until 10.7 kyr BP might imply intensified erosion processes in the catchment and this is fully consistent with the presence of scarce and dry vegetation and the generally arid climate during this period. From about 10.7 kyr BP, more planktonic diatom taxa appeared and increased in abundance, indicating that the lake became more productive as diatom concentration increased. This change correlates well with the development of boreal woodland in the catchment. Decrease in precipitation and changes in the vegetation towards steppe are reflected by the rapid increase in Aulacoseira distans from about 5 kyr BP. The Holocene pollen and diatom records do not indicate soil and vegetation cover disturbances by the anthropogenic activities, implying that the main transformations of the regional vegetation occurred as a result of the natural climate change. Our reconstruction is in agreement with the paleomonsoon records from China, demonstrating an abrupt strengthening of the summer monsoon at 12 kyr BP and an associated increase in precipitation and in lake levels between 11 and 8 kyr BP, followed by the stepwise attenuation of the monsoon circulation and climate aridization towards the modern level. The records from the neighboring areas of Kazakhstan and Russia, situated west and north of Hoton-Nur, demonstrate spatially and temporally different Holocene vegetation and climate histories, indicating that the Altai Mountains as a climate boundary are of pivotal importance for the Holocene environmental and, possibly, habitation history of Central Asia.     

Elemental and isotopic fractionation of Type B calcium-, aluminum-rich inclusions: experiments, theoretical considerations, and constraints on their thermal evolution

Experiments exposing Type B calcium-, aluminum-rich inclusion (CAI)-like melts at high temperatures to high vacuum or reducing hydrogen-rich gas mixtures were used to determine the rates and consequences of elemental and isotopic fractionation by evaporation. Silicon and magnesium were found to evaporate much faster than calcium and aluminum, and the resulting residual liquid trajectories in composition space are reproduced via a thermodynamic model for the saturation vapor pressure of the evaporating species. Isotopic fractionations associated with evaporation were measured for magnesium. The resulting relationship between fraction of magnesium lost and enrichment of the residue in the heavy isotopes of magnesium follows a Rayleigh fractionation curve with a fractionation factor that is close to, but not exactly, the theoretically expected value. The rate of evaporation is found to be a strong function of temperature, oxygen fugacity, and melt composition, which can be understood and modeled in terms of the dependence of the saturation vapor pressures on these variables. The relationship between evaporation rate, which we measure, and calculated saturation vapor involves empirical evaporation coefficients that we find to be significantly less than one (∼0.1). Analytical and numerical models are used to characterize how diffusion in both the melt and in the surrounding gas affects evaporation rates and the degree of chemical and isotopic fractionation. The experimental data and theoretical considerations are combined to give a parameterization of the rates and consequences of evaporation of Type B CAI-like liquids, which is then used to translate the measured isotopic fractionation of Type B CAIs into constraints on their thermal history. Cooling rates of the order of 10°C per hour are indicated.     

Jurassic strike slip versus subduction in the Eastern Alps

Late Jurassic formations of the Northern Calcareous Alps (NCA) contain ample evidence of synsedimentary tectonics in the form of elongate basins filled with turbidites, debris flows and slumps. Clasts are derived from the Mesozoic of the NCA; they commonly measure tens of metres in diameter and occasionally form kilometre-size bodies. These sedimentologic observations and the presumed evidence of Late Jurassic high-pressure metamorphism recently led to the hypothesis of a south-dipping Jurassic subduction zone with accretionary wedge in the southern parts of the NCA. We present new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates from the location of the postulated high-pressure metamorphism that bracket the age of this crystallization not earlier than 114–120 Ma. The event is therefore part of the well-documented mid-Cretaceous metamorphism of the Austro-alpine domain. Thus, there is currently no evidence of Late Jurassic high-pressure metamorphism to support the subduction hypothesis. The sediment record of the Late Jurassic deformation in the NCA, including the formation of local thrust sheets, is no conclusive evidence for subduction. All these phenomena are perfectly compatible with synsedimentary strike-slip tectonics. Large strike-slip fault zones with restraining and releasing bends and associated flower structures and pull-apart basins are a perfectly viable alternative to the subduction model for the Late Jurassic history of the NCA. However, in contrast to the Eastern Alps transect, where arguments for a Jurassic subduction are missing, a glaucophane bearing Jurassic high-pressure metamorphism in the Meliatic realm of the West Carpathians is well documented. There, the high-pressure/low-temperature slices occur between the Gemeric unit and the Silica nappe system (including the Aggtelek-Rudabanya units), which corresponds in facies with the Juvavic units in the southern part of the NCA. To solve the contrasting palaeogeographic reconstructions we propose that the upper Jurassic left lateral strike-slip system proposed here for the Eastern Alps continued eastwards and caused the eastward displacement of the Silica units into the Meliatic accretionary wedge.