Impact of different regression frameworks on the estimation of the scaling properties of radar rainfall

Rainfall is characterized by high variability both in space and time. Despite continuous technological progress, the available instruments that are used to measure rainfall across several spatio-temporal scales remain inaccurate. To remedy this situation, scaling relationships of spatial rainfall offer the potential to link the observed or predicted precipitation quantities at one scale to those of interest at other scales. This paper focuses on the estimation of the spatial rainfall scaling functions. Standard scaling analysis constructed by means of the ordinary least squares method often violates such basic assumptions implicit in its use and interpretation as homoschedasticity, independence, and normality of the errors. Consequently, the authors consider alternative regression frameworks i.e. bootstrapping regression, semi parametric linear model, and multilevel normal linear model to show how these different approaches exert a significant impact on the multifractal analysis of radar rainfall. In addition, the uncertainties associated with the construction of the scaling function due solely to the regression procedure are quantified. The radar data come from the polarimetric C-band weather radar located in Rome, Italy, and the scaling properties are computed for a square domain centred on the radar site with a side length of 128 km and a finest resolution of 1 km².     

The Lithosphere-Asthenosphere System in the Calabrian Arc and Surrounding Seas – Southern Italy

A fairly detailed structural model of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system (thickness, S- and P-wave velocities of the crust and of the uppermost mantle layers) has been defined in the Calabrian Arc region (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Calabria and the northwestern part of the Ionian Sea) in Southern Italy using seismic data from literature as a priori constraints of the nonlinear inversion of surface-wave data. The main features identified by this study are: (1) A very shallow (less then 10 km deep) crust-mantle transition in the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea and a very low v_s just below a very thin lid, in correspondence of the submarine volcanic bodies Magnaghi, Marsili and Vavilov, while the v_s in the lid is quite high in the area that separates Marsili from Magnaghi-Vavilov; (2) a shallow and very low v_s layer in the uppermost mantle in the areas of the Aeolian Islands, Vesuvius, Phlegraean Fields and Ischia, which represents their shallow-mantle magma source; (3) a thickened continental crust and lithospheric doubling in Calabria; (4) a crust about 25-km thick and a mantle velocity profile versus depth consistent with the presence of a continental rifted lithosphere, now thermally relaxed, in the investigated part of the Ionian Sea; (5) the subduction towards northwest of the Ionian lithosphere below the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea; (6) the subduction of the Adriatic/Ionian lithosphere underneath the Vesuvius and Phlegraean Fields.     

Paleoenvironmental reconstruction of Holocene coastal depositsfrom the Southeastern Buenos Aires Province, Argentina

An estuarine sequence outcropping at La Ballenera Creek (BuenosAires Province), dated between 6,800 and 4,100 ¹⁴C years BP, wasinvestigated for diatoms and molluscs. The sea level history along the BuenosAires coastline has been reconstructed from discrete beach ridge sequencesalong low-lying plains. The La Ballenera profile is located on a cliffcoast where a sequence recorded environmental changes. Fifty-eightdiatom species were grouped based on their salinity and life formcharacteristics. Cluster analysis allowed the division of the sequence intothree diatom zones. Mollusc tolerances were also used to discern theenvironmental changes induced by sea-level fluctuations. The base of thesequence recorded the initiation of the marine influence about6,790–6,200 years ago. Diatom assemblages consist ofbrackish-freshwater tychoplankton accompanied by brackish benthicdiatoms. Among the molluscs, the freshwater-brackish species Heleobiaparchappii dominates. Between 6,200 and ca. 4,800 ¹⁴C years BP, anestuarine lagoon environment is indicated by benthic and epiphyticmarine-brackish diatoms, as well as by the estuarine snail Heleobiaaustralis. After 4,800 ¹⁴C years BP, the diatom assemblages and therelative abundance of freshwater molluscs indicate a marshy environment withlower salinity content. The La Ballenera records the salinity changes thataffect an estuary that infilled during the 2,700 years after the maximum sealevel reached in mid-latitudes of South America.     

Holocene climate phases from buried soils in Tigray (northern Ethiopia): comparison with lake level fluctuations in the Main Ethiopian Rift

Stratigraphic analysis of alluvial/colluvial sequences and ¹⁴C dating have been used as proxies for Holocene climate changes in the highlands of Tigray (northern Ethiopia). The studied records show alternations of buried soils and peaty–clayey sediments, pointing to wet, stabilization phases, and organic-free colluvium layers resulting from the abrupt occurrence of dry-climate episodes. The ¹⁴C dates, mostly unpublished, cluster in the 11,090–9915, 9465–9135, 8450–7330, 6720–3635, 2710–2345, and 1265–790 cal yr B.P. time spans. Evidence of subsequent pedogenesis is lacking in the area, apart from a buried humified horizon dated at 300 ± 60 ¹⁴C yr B.P. (460–295 cal yr B.P.). Both the timing and the pattern of Tigray paleoclimatic events fit the corresponding framework, based on lake level changes, previously implemented for the Main Rift Valley. These findings give further support for arguing that the forcing mechanisms of the wet/dry fluctuations during the Holocene were effective over a large scale.     

CCD photometry of the Galactic globular cluster M13

In this paper, we present a B − V CCD colour–magnitude diagram (CMD) of the globular cluster M13 (NGC 6205), reaching down about 2 mag below the main sequence turn-off, based on a new, independent photometric calibration.
The most notable features of the CMD, including about 5500 stars, are (i) the long extension of the blue tail of the horizontal branch (HB), which can be traced down to V ∼19 and (moreover) shows the presence of two gaps; and (ii) the so-called bump on the red giant branch which is well-detected at V =14.75±0.05, using both the differential and integral luminosity functions.
No similar features have ever been detected in any previous ground-based photometry of this cluster.
A direct comparison between the CMD of M13 and M3, calibrated during the same run with the same apparatus, sets an upper limit of about 1.5 Gyr on their age difference, too small to explain the striking differences between their HB morphologies.     

The clustering of Lyman-break galaxies

We calculate the statistical clustering of Lyman-break galaxies predicted in a selection of currently fashionable structure formation scenarios. These models are all based on the cold dark matter model, but vary in the amount of dark matter, the initial perturbation spectrum, the background cosmology and the presence or absence of a cosmological constant term. If Lyman-break galaxies form as a result of hierarchical merging, the amplitude of clustering depends quite sensitively on the minimum halo mass that can host such a galaxy. Interpretation of the recent observations by Giavalisco et al. would therefore be considerably clarified by a direct determination of the relevant halo properties. For a typical halo mass around 10¹¹  h ⁻¹ M⊙ the observations do not discriminate strongly between cosmological models, but if the appropriate mass is larger, say 10¹²  h ⁻¹ M⊙ (which seems likely on theoretical grounds), then the data strongly favour models with a low matter density.     

The bias field of dark matter haloes

Accepted 1998 January 26. Received 1998 January 26; in original form 1997 August 13This paper presents a stochastic approach to the clustering evolution of dark matter haloes in the Universe. Haloes, identified by a Press–Schechter-type algorithm in Lagrangian space, are described in terms of 'counting fields', acting as non-linear operators on the underlying Gaussian density fluctuations. By ensemble-averaging these counting fields, the standard Press–Schechter mass function as well as analytic expressions for the halo correlation function and corresponding bias factors of linear theory are obtained, extending the recent results by Mo & White. The non-linear evolution of our halo population is then followed by solving the continuity equation, under the sole hypothesis that haloes move by the action of gravity. This leads to an exact and general formula for the bias field of dark matter haloes, defined as the local ratio between their number density contrast and the mass density fluctuation. Besides being a function of position and 'observation' redshift, this random field depends upon the mass and formation epoch of the objects and is both non-linear and non-local. The latter features are expected to leave a detectable imprint on the spatial clustering of galaxies, as described, for instance, by statistics like the bispectrum and the skewness. Our algorithm may have several interesting applications, among which is the possibility of generating mock halo catalogues from low-resolution N -body simulations.     

Excursion set approach to the clustering of dark matter haloes in Lagrangian space

We present a stochastic approach to the spatial clustering of dark matter haloes in Lagrangian space. Our formalism is based on a local formulation of the 'excursion set' approach by Bond et al., which automatically accounts for the 'cloud-in-cloud' problem in the identification of bound systems. Our method allows us to calculate correlation functions of haloes in Lagrangian space using either a multidimensional Fokker–Planck equation with suitable boundary conditions, or an array of Langevin equations with spatially correlated random forces. We compare the results of our method with theoretical predictions for the halo autocorrelation function considered in the literature, and find good agreement with the results recently obtained within a treatment of halo clustering in terms of 'counting fields' by Catelan et al. Finally, the possible effect of spatial correlations on numerical simulations of halo merger trees is discussed.     

A statistical analysis of flank eruptions on Etna volcano

A singularly complete record exists for the eruptive activity of Etna volcano. The time series of occurrence of flank eruptions in the period 1600–1980, in which the record is presumably complete, is found to follow a stationary Poisson process. A revision of the available data shows that eruption durations are rather well correlated with the estimates of the volume of lava flows. This implies that the magnitude of an eruption can be defined directly by its duration. Extreme value statistics are then applied to the time series, using duration as a dependent variable. The probability of occurrence of a very long (300 days) eruption is greater than 50% only in time intervals of the order of 50 years. The correlation found between duration and total output also allows estimation of the probability of occurrence of a major event which exceeds a given duration and total flow of lava. The composite probabilities do not differ considerably from the pure ones. Paralleling a well established application to seismic events, extreme value theory can be profitably used in volcanic risk estimates, provided that appropriate account is also taken of all other variables.