Stability and accuracy in a hybrid test example

This paper presents an example of the application of error monitoring techniques to the results of a pseudodynamic test performed at variable testing speeds. For the faster testing speeds, the control errors increased and the test reliability was lost in terms of accuracy and stability, as observed by the evolution of the monitoring parameters. The applied monitoring methods were the spatial model identification of frequency and damping distortions and the error energy, which have been proposed in previous publications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrometeorological analysis of the December 2008 flood in Rome

Abstract

Rome has been plagued by flooding since its foundation, and, in December 2008, the largest flood event over the past 20 years caused a fatality and more than €150 million in economic damage. Meteorological conditions associated with the December 2008 flooding are shown to be typical of flooding in the Tiber. The long record of discharge measurements of the Tiber River at the Ripetta station in downtown Rome was used to examine flood frequency for the Tiber, including assessment of the return interval of the December 2008 flood. Particular attention is given to examination of the stationarity assumption for flood peaks through change-point and trend analyses, quantile regression, and statistical modelling of the flood-peak distribution. Once anthropogenic changes linked to reservoir regulation of the Tiber River have been accounted for, the stationarity assumption holds and can be used for flood frequency analysis. We highlight the difficulties in detecting departures from the stationarity assumption due to climate change. In the current regime, the December 2008 flood event has a return period of the order of 10–20 years.

Citation Villarini, G., Smith, J.A., Napolitano, F. & Baeck, M.L. (2011) Hydrometeorological analyses of the December 2008 flood in Rome. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1150–1165.     

Can a Simulated Flood Experience Improve Social Resilience to Disasters?

The increase of extreme meteorological phenomena, along with continuous population growth, has led to a rising number of flooding disasters. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop better risk reduction strategies, among which is increased social resilience. Experiencing a disaster is recognized as a factor that positively influences overall community resilience, with particular effects on social resilience; it appears to be more influential than school education. It also has many negative effects, though. Previous studies underline that citizens do not distinguish between different types of experiences. Thus, we investigated whether a simulated experience of a flood can improve social resilience, without being hampered by negative repercussions. The study was executed in five municipalities in three Italian regions involved in the European project LIFE PRIMES, which planned simulation activities for each studied area. Data, collected through the administration of anonymous questionnaires before and after a flood drill, were processed by applying a multicriteria decision analysis tool (PROMETHEE). Results show that the drill significantly augmented perceived social resilience in the smaller studied communities but not in the larger ones, a fact that should be further investigated. Key Words: multicriteria decision analysis, simulated flood experience, social resilience to disasters.     

The Ischia debris avalanche: first clear submarine evidence in the Mediterranean of a volcanic island prehistorical collapse

Sector or flank collapse with related debris avalanches is increasingly recognized as a relatively common volcanic behaviour, in particular, for large, hot‐spot related oceanic islands. Here, we report the case of a catastrophic collapse that occurred at Ischia volcanic island in prehistorical times and was driven by the volcano‐tectonic uplift of Mt Epomeo, the major relief of the island. The collapse left a subaerial to submarine horseshoe scar on the southern flank of the island and generated a debris avalanche incorporating thousands of giant blocks dispersed as far as 50 km from the island. During the emplacement, part of the debris avalanche evolved into a debris flow covering an area of 250–300 km². This constitutes the first, clear evidence of a submarine debris avalanche in the Mediterranean Sea. The major collapse was followed, and probably also preceded, by recurrent, less catastrophic terrestrial and underwater failures. Two other undersea hummocky deposits are found north and west of the island and might tentatively be correlated to the major southern collapse. Such volcanic behaviour, previously unknown for Ischia Volcano, has likely triggered tsunami waves over the entire Bay of Naples raising the question of their impact on prehistorical/historical communities.     

On the Formation of Massive Primordial Stars

We investigate the formation by accretion of massive primordial protostars in the range 10 to 300 M _⊙. The high accretion rate used in the models (M _⊙ = 4.4 x 10^-3 M_⊙ yr^-1) causes the structure and evolution to differ significantly from those of both present-day protostars and primordial zero-age main sequence stars. The stellar surface is not visible throughout most of the main accretion phase, since a photosphere is formed in the in falling envelope. Significant nuclear burning does not take place until a protostellar mass of about 80 M _⊙. As the interior luminosity approaches the Eddington luminosity, the protostellar radius rapidly expands owing to the radiation pressure. Eventually, a final swelling occurs when the stellar mass reaches about 300 M _⊙. This expansion is likely to signal the end of the main accretion phase, thus setting an upper limit to the protostellar mass formed in these conditions. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Intergalactic shock acceleration and the cosmic gamma-ray background

We investigate numerically the contribution to the cosmic gamma-ray background from cosmic-ray ions and electrons accelerated at intergalactic shocks associated with cosmological structure formation. We show that the kinetic energy of accretion flows in the low-redshift intergalactic medium is thermalized primarily through moderately strong shocks, which allow for an efficient conversion of shock ram pressure into cosmic-ray pressure. Cosmic rays accelerated at these shocks produce a diffuse gamma-ray flux which is dominated by inverse Compton emission from electrons scattering off cosmic microwave background photons. Decay of neutral π mesons generated in p–p inelastic collisions of the ionic cosmic-ray component with the thermal gas contribute about 30 per cent of the computed emission. Based on experimental upper limits on the photon flux above 100 MeV from nearby clusters we constrain the efficiency of conversion of shock ram pressure into relativistic CR electrons to  ≲1 per cent  . Thus, we find that cosmic rays of cosmological origin can generate an overall significant fraction of order 20 per cent and no more than 30 per cent of the measured gamma-ray background.     

Debris-flow risk analysis in south Gargano watersheds (Southern-Italy)

This article describes a methodology to analyse debris-flow risk in the torrential watersheds of the southern hillside of Gargano (Puglia—Italy). The approach integrates a stability model that identifies the areas of potential shallow landslides in different meteorological conditions with a two-dimensional flood routing model that allows hazard mapping and GIS interface. The results were combined with a susceptibility map that was defined by analyzing the vulnerability conditions and the exposure of the alluvial fan. The models were calibrated on the 1972, July catastrophic event for which the distribution of rainstorm intensity was available. The geo-mechanical properties of the debris were studied by field surveys and laboratory tests while the sediment source areas and the shape of the alluvial cone were obtained using photo-aerial interpretation. The risk conditions of the areas under consideration were also investigated in order to plan and guide measures aimed at limiting the damage such hazards may cause.     

Neural networks and landslide susceptibility: a case study of the urban area of Potenza

For those working in the field of landslide prevention, the estimation of hazard levels and the consequent production of thematic maps are principal objectives. They are achieved through careful analytical studies of the characteristics of landslide prone areas, thus, providing useful information regarding possible future phenomena. Such maps represent a fundamental step in the drawing up of adequate measures of landslide hazard mitigation. However, for a complete estimation of landslide hazard, meant as the degree of probability that a landslide occurs in a given area, within a given space of time, detailed and uniformly distributed data regarding their incidence and causes are required. This information, while obtainable through laborious historical research, is usually partial, incomplete and uneven, and hence, unsatisfactory for zoning on a regional scale. In order to carry this out effectively, the utilization of spatial estimation of the relative levels of landslide hazard in the various areas was considered opportune. These areas were classified according to their levels of proneness to landslide activity without taking recurrence periods into account. Various techniques were developed in order to obtain upheaval numerical estimates. The method used in this study, which was applied in the area of Potenza, is based on techniques derived from artificial intelligence (Artificial Neural Network—ANN). This method requires the definition of appropriate thematic layers, which parameterize the area under study. These are recognized by means of specific analyses in a functional relationship to the event itself. The parameters adopted are: slope gradient, slope aspect, topographical index, topographical shape, elevation, land use and lithology.