Ground motion observations and simulation for local earthquakes in the Campi Flegrei volcanic area

Ground motion produced by low magnitude earthquakes can be used to predict peak values in high seismic risk areas where large earthquakes data are not available. In the present work 20 local earthquakes (M_D∈[?0.3, 2.2]) occurred in the Campi Flegrei caldera during the last decade were analyzed. We followed this strategy: empirical relations were used to calibrate synthetic modeling, accounting for the source features and wave propagation effects. Once the source and path parameters of ground motion simulation were obtained from the reference data set, we extrapolated scenarios for stronger earthquakes for which real data are not available. The procedure is structured in two steps: (1) evaluation of ground motion prediction equation for Campi Flegrei area and assessment of input parameters for the source, path and site effects in order to use the finite fault stochastic approach (EXSIM code); (2) simulation of two moderate-to-large earthquake scenarios for which only historical data or partial information are available (M_w4.2 and M_w5.4). The results show that the investigated area is characterized by high attenuation of peak amplitude and not negligible site effects. The stochastic approach has revealed a good tool to calibrate source, path and site parameters on small earthquakes and to generate large earthquake scenario. The investigated magnitude range represents a lower limit to apply the stochastic method as a calibration tool, due to the small size of involved faults (fault length around 200/300 m).     

Supermassive black holes, star formation and downsizing of elliptical galaxies

The overabundance of Mg relative to Fe, observed in the nuclei of bright ellipticals, and its increase with galactic mass, poses a serious problem for all current models of galaxy formation. Here, we improve on the one-zone chemical evolution models for elliptical galaxies by taking into account positive feedback produced in the early stages of supermassive central black hole growth. We can account for both the observed correlation and the scatter if the observed anti-hierarchical behaviour of the AGN population couples to galaxy assembly and results in an enhancement of the star formation efficiency which is proportional to galactic mass. At low and intermediate galactic masses, however, a slower mode for star formation suffices to account for the observational properties.     

Impact of event landslides on road networks: a statistical analysis of two Italian case studies

Despite abundant information on landslides, and on landslide hazard and risk, in Italy, little is known on the direct impact of event landslides on road networks and on the related economic costs. We investigated the physical and economic damage caused by two rainfall-induced landslide events in Central and Southern Italy, to obtain road restoration cost statistics. Using a GIS-based method, we exploited road maps and landslide event inventory maps to compute different metrics that quantify the impact of the landslide events on the natural landscape and on the road networks, by road type. The maps were used with cost data obtained from multiple sources, including local authorities, and specific legislation, to evaluate statistically the unit cost per metre of damaged road and the unit cost per square metre of damaging landslide, separately for main and secondary roads. The obtained unit costs showed large variations which we attribute to the different road types in the two study areas and to the different abundance of landslides. Our work confirms the long-standing conundrum of obtaining accurate landslide damage data and outlines the need for reliable, standardized methods to evaluate landslide damage and associated restoration costs that regional and local administrations can use rapidly in the aftermath of a landslide event. We conclude recommending that common standardized procedures to collect landslide cost data following each landslide event are established, in Italy and elsewhere. This will allow for more accurate and reliable evaluations of the economic costs of landslide events.     

Numerical study of partially drained penetration and pore pressure dissipation in piezocone test

The piezocone penetration test (CPTU) is commonly used as a fast and economical tool to identify soil profile and to estimate relevant material properties in soils ranging from fine to coarse-grained. Moreover, in the case of fine-grained soils (clays and silts), the consolidation coefficient and the permeability can be estimated through the dissipation test. Undrained conditions are commonly assumed for the interpretation of CPTU in fine-grained soils, but in soils such as silts, penetration may occur in partially drained conditions. This aspect is often neglected in data interpretation thus leading to an inaccurate estimate of soil properties. This paper investigates numerically the effect of partial drainage during penetration on the measured tip resistance and the subsequent pore pressure dissipation response contributing to a more accurate interpretation of field data. A realistic simulation of the cone penetration is achieved with the two-phase Material Point Method, modelling the soil response with the modified Cam-Clay model. The approach takes into account large soil deformations induced by the advancing cone, soil–water, and soil–structure interactions, as well as nonlinear soil behavior.     

Hazard and population vulnerability analysis: a step towards landslide risk assessment

In this paper, an attempt to analyse landslide hazard and vulnerability in the municipality of Pahuatlán, Puebla, Mexico, is presented. In order to estimate landslide hazard, the susceptibility,magnitude(area-velocity ratio) and landslide frequency of the area of interest were produced based on information derived from a geomorphological landslide inventory; the latter was generated by using very high resolution satellite stereo pairs along with information derived from other sources(Google Earth,aerial photographs and historical information).Estimations of landslide susceptibility were determined by combining four statistical techniques:(i) logistic regression,(ii) quadratic discriminant analysis,(iii) linear discriminant analysis, and(iv)neuronal networks. A Digital Elevation Model(DEM)of 10 m spatial resolution was used to extract the slope angle, aspect, curvature, elevation and relief.These factors, in addition to land cover, lithology anddistance to faults, were used as explanatory variables for the susceptibility models. Additionally, a Poisson model was used to estimate landslide temporal frequency, at the same time as landslide magnitude was obtained by using the relationship between landslide area and the velocity of movements. Then,due to the complexity of evaluating it, vulnerability of population was analysed by applying the Spatial Approach to Vulnerability Assessment(SAVE) model which considered levels of exposure, sensitivity and lack of resilience. Results were expressed on maps on which different spatial patterns of levels of landslide hazard and vulnerability were found for the inhabited areas. It is noteworthy that the lack of optimal methodologies to estimate and quantify vulnerability is more notorious than that of hazard assessments.Consequently, levels of uncertainty linked to landslide risk assessment remain a challenge to be addressed.     

Huygens probe entry trajectory and attitude estimated simultaneously with Titan atmospheric structure by Kalman filtering

Space probes entering planetary atmospheres are used for in situ study of their physical structures. During the entry phase aerodynamic forces exerted on the probe depend on atmospheric density. As a consequence accelerations measured by on-board sensors can be used to derive probe trajectory as well as atmospheric density, pressure and temperature profiles. In this work acceleration data acquired by the Huygens Atmospheric Structure Instrument (HASI) have been used to reconstruct the probe trajectory and the Titan's atmospheric structure from down to of altitude. An accurate six degree of freedom model of Huygens during the entry phase has been developed and a new reconstruction technique based on Kalman filtering is presented. This technique estimates simultaneously the probe trajectory, the attitude profile consistent with measured data and the atmospheric density, pressure and temperature.     

On the dependence ofQ metallicity index from basic parameters of stellar evolution

The possible dependence of Van den Bergh'sQ parameter on the mass distribution function in globular clusters is investigated. The resulting independence within the observational errors assures thatQ is available as index of the chemical composition and age of the clusters.