Late and middle Pleistocene ungulates dietary diversity in Western Europe indicate variations of Neanderthal paleoenvironments through time and space

Mesowear and microwear on enamel from 763 teeth of middle and late Pleistocene ungulates were analysed to infer the potential of dental wear analysis of faunal remains as a paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic proxy in relation to climatic changes and diversity of vegetation available in the environment. Fossil localities including levels belonging to two glacial and two interglacial stages were selected in Germany, France, and Spain. At a temporal scale, results indicate that the dietary diversity in ungulates is higher during interglacial phases (MIS 5 and 3) than during pleniglacial phases (MIS 8 and 4). Dietary diversity is concluded to be related to climate-driven vegetation changes which during interglacials lead to increased variety of potential food items available to ungulates. At the geographical scale, during interglacials, changes in diet composition are evident along geographical gradients. The corresponding dietary gradients are proposed to be related to climate and vegetation gradients reflecting more arid climates in the Mediterranean area compared to North-Western Europe. Species consistently represented at all localities investigated are Cervus elaphus (Cervidae, Artiodactyla) and Equus ferus (Equidae, Perissodactyla). C. elaphus populations are found to consistently have less abrasive diets than E. ferus populations but dietary traits of both species varied largely, revealing a significant plasticity in the feeding adaptation of both species. Those traits are concluded to be related to differences in vegetation structure at each locality and complement the evidence that ungulates have broader dietary habits than what is usually assumed.     

Multi‐method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA) for modelling floodplain hydrological processes

When studying hydrological processes with a numerical model, global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is essential if one is to understand the impact of model parameters and model formulation on results. However, different definitions of sensitivity can lead to a difference in the ranking of importance of the different model factors. Here we combine a fuzzy performance function with different methods of calculating global sensitivity to perform a multi‐method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA). We use an application of a finite element subsurface flow model (ESTEL‐2D) on a flood inundation event on a floodplain of the River Severn to illustrate this new methodology. We demonstrate the utility of the method for model understanding and show how the prediction of state variables, such as Darcian velocity vectors, can be affected by such a MMGSA. This paper is a first attempt to use GSA with a numerically intensive hydrological model. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

From picket fences to iron gates: suburbanization and gated communities in Phoenix,Las Vegas and Seattle

Suburbanization has been a prominent urban process in the United States since the World War II. It has transformed American cities in profound ways in every single aspect of urban development; from population and wealth distributions, through political organization and affiliations, to the built environment. This paper investigates the link between gated communities and the process of suburbanization in the context of socio-economic inequality. It has been shown time and again in the scholarly literature on suburbanization, that suburban neighborhoods in American cities have been traditionally more affluent and less diverse than central cities. The research on gated communities in the US also shows that they are, on average, more affluent compared to other communities in terms of family income and housing values. Are gated communities then simply a new form of suburban communities? Is the gated community in fact a suburban community with the added element of security features? The paper investigates these questions based on segregation and spatial analyses. The research contributes to the long line of studies on suburbanization, gating and the larger issues of urban inequality.     

Relative performance of future altimeter systems and tide gauges in constraining a model of North Sea high-frequency barotropic dynamics

We evaluate in this paper the ability of several altimeter systems, considered separately as well as together with tide gauges, to control the time evolution of a barotropic model of the North Sea shelf. This evaluation is performed in the framework of the particular model errors due to uncertainties in bathymetry. An Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation approach is adopted, and observing-systems simulation experiments (OSSEs) are carried out using ensemble spread statistics. The skill criterion for the comparison of observing networks is, therefore, not based on the misfit between two simulations, as done in classic twin experiments, but on the reduction of ensemble variance occurring as a consequence of the assimilation. Future altimeter systems, such as the Wide Swath Ocean Altimeter (WSOA) and satellite constellations, are considered in this work. A single WSOA exhibits, for instance, similar performance as two-nadir satellites in terms of sea-level correction, and is better than three satellites in terms of model velocity control. Generally speaking, the temporal resolution of observations is shown to be of major importance for controlling the model error in these experiments. This result is clearly related to the focus adopted in this study on the specific high-frequency response of the ocean to meteorological forcing. Altimeter systems lack adequate temporal sampling for properly correcting the major part of model error in this context, whereas tide gauges, which provide a much finer time resolution, lead to better global statistical performance. When looking into further detail, tide gauges and altimetry are demonstrated to exhibit an interesting complementary character over the whole shelf, as tide gauge networks make it possible to properly control model error in a ∼100-km coastal band, while high-resolution altimeter systems are more efficient farther from the coast.     

Late Cenozoic geodynamic evolution of eastern Indonesia

This paper presents an internally and globally consistent model of plate evolution in eastern Indonesia from Middle Miocene to Present time. It is centered on the Banda Sea region located in the triple junction area between the Pacific–Philippine, Australia and South–East Asia plates. The geological and geophysical data available from Indonesia were until recently insufficient to define a unique plate tectonic model. In this paper, the new data taken into account clearly restrict the possible interpretations. Owing to a great number of geological, geophysical and geochemical studies, the major plate boundaries (the Sunda–Banda subduction zone to the south, the Tarera–Aiduna Fault zone and the Seram Thrust to the east, and the Sorong Fault zone and Molucca Sea collision zone to the north) are now clearly identified. The age of the major tectonic structures is also better known. Geodetic measurements well constrain the Present time plate kinematics. We also consider the deformation history within eastern Indonesia, where numerous short-lived microplates and their related microcontinents successively accreted to the Asiatic margin. Moreover, magnetic anomalies identification of the North and South Banda Sea basins allows a precise kinematic reconstruction of the back-arc opening. We used the Plates software to test the coherency of our model, presented as a series of 4 plate reconstruction maps from 13 Ma to the present. Finally, the origin of oceanic domains restored by our reconstruction is discussed.     

Tree Species Composition in European Pristine Forests: Comparison of Stand Data to Model Predictions

The degree of general applicability across Europe currently achieved with several forest succession models is assessed, data needs and steps for further model development are identified and the role physiology based models can play in this process is evaluated. To this end, six forest succession models (DISCFORM, ForClim, FORSKA-M, GUESS, PICUS v1.2, SIERRA) are applied to simulate stand structure and species composition at 5 European pristine forest sites in different climatic regions. The models are initialized with site-specific soil information and driven with climate data from nearby weather stations. Predicted species composition and stand structure are compared to inventory data. Similarity and dissimilarity in the model results under current climatic conditions as well as the predicted responses to six climate change scenarios are discussed. All models produce good results in the prediction of the right tree functional types. In about half the cases, the dominating species are predicted correctly under the current climate. Where deviations occur, they often represent a shift of the species spectrum towards more drought tolerant species. Results for climate change scenarios indicate temperature driven changes in the alpine elevational vegetation belts at humid sites and a high sensitivity of forest composition and biomass of boreal and temperate deciduous forests to changes in precipitation as mediated by summer drought. Restricted generality of the models is found insofar as models originally developed for alpine conditions clearly perform better at alpine sites than at boreal sites, and vice versa. We conclude that both the models and the input data need to be improved before the models can be used for a robust evaluation of forest dynamics under climate change scenarios across Europe. Recommendations for model improvements, further model testing and the use of physiology based succession models are made.